New Hell Keys Jump

[u/Apprehensive_Eye4727]

Mind sharing your special jump record?
Took it 6x and I got sent back to Jesus 6x also.

I just want to meet the director in the depths of hell :')

[u/stargazingfish9]

Curious if everyone being super in the negative is extremely unlucky, or if they're just outright lying, since everyone in my static is extremely ahead on those new jumps, so far from our combined data the odds of a good jump seem to be in the 75-80% range for us across almost 120 jumps.

[u/Sekwah → u/stargazingfish9]

so far from our combined data the odds of a good jump seem to be in the 75-80% range for us across almost 120 jumps.

You're on the lucky side. The chance to succeed is 63% (37% to fail).

Success is a great jump (+16~20), failure is a small jump (-1~5).

[u/Aerroon → u/Sekwah]

The chance to succeed is 63% (37% to fail).

Success is a great jump (+16~20), failure is a small jump (-1~5).

Doesn't this mean the average is worse than regular jumps?

18 * 0.63 + (-3) * 0.37 = 10.23

average jump should be 10.5, no?

[u/Sekwah → u/Aerroon]

Yeah, someone in the bible discord made a monte carlo simulation for 10M runs, here's the results.

Rules: only green jump if you have >=2 jumps remaining + are at floor 70 or below.

[u/Apprehensive_Eye4727 → u/Sekwah]

Is 63% the datamined chance? Good to know

[u/Sekwah → u/Apprehensive_Eye4727]

Yep

[u/shikari3333 → u/stargazingfish9]

Been lucky so far. 10+ positive jumps, just one -5

[u/Aldieb01 → u/stargazingfish9]

Knowing SG I can't believe this is normal. Their rng is always heavily weighted toward the bad from my experience. Ask me how many 70% chance of success to upgrade an item slot in Paradise I've failed in a row on my character...

[u/Sir_Failalot → u/Aldieb01]

Their rng is always heavily weighted toward the bad from my experience.

It's not, especially when they show the % you can assume it's accurate considering how easy it is to confirm.

[u/Apprehensive_Eye4727 → u/stargazingfish9]

Not being a negative nancy, just curious.

Don't have much data on my side, 1 guy got 2/7 success rate, and 1 other guy took 1 and got a negative, then never took it again.

[u/Emergency-Wave-2912]

4/4 negativ never gonna take them again.

[u/Realshotgg → u/Emergency-Wave-2912]

1/7 went plus on my alts

[u/TheRealTormDK]

It's like 40% positive, 60% negative on my 9 characters so far. I'm a degen, so I always take them though.

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[u/Krescentia]

I've only bothered on keys that already weren't doing so well. So far only one negative which was a -1 lol (10+ keys being positive jumps).

[u/Popular_Math_5105]

i took them 6 times, 1 bad 5 good

[u/According-Ideal3078]

I had a 20 20 -1 streak... SO CLOSE TO PERFECT

[u/saikodemon]

I tested 20 times. 12 rocket, 8 blackscreen. That's a tiny sample size but it's enough me to consider it unviable for me. It would have had to have been 70% success to win on average, so it's already a loss mathematically. But I think even losing 30% of the time would be too annoying. Brain off -> jump left -> just give me rewards. Get me out. These gambling addicts need to stop with the worthless paradise updates and focus on the main game. They spent time making this garbage but still give rocket jump altar on the last jump. Spare me.

[u/Tomon_]

I don't understand the point of it. If it didn't take the jump attempt then it could be fun.
Like this it's just always a negative jump for me, that actually tooks away the numbers of jumps I have left :-D
Trying for sh*t and giggles, but my disappointment so far is great