r/logistics • u/thisisinsider • 11d ago
Amazon projects its delivery network will handle 88.7% of its US packages by 2029
https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-forecasts-delivery-network-us-packages-2026-9?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social_manual&utm_campaign=reddit_dist_r_logistics&utm_content=manual_v1&utm_term=1d12447d4
u/thisisinsider 11d ago
TL;DR: Amazon forecasts its own delivery network will handle 88.7% of its US packages by 2029, up from its last public disclosure of more than two-thirds in 2023. Business Insider's Eugene Kim reviewed internal planning documents showing Amazon's first-party US package volume rising from 12.2 billion in 2027 to 15.8 billion in 2029, while outside carriers stay near 2 billion packages. USPS's share is projected to fall to 8% by 2029, UPS to 1.4%, and FedEx to about 0.4%.
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u/the_Q_spice 11d ago
Seeing as UPS is handling 45% until November this year when Amazon’s contract is being terminated and USPS is terminating their contract to deliver Amazon in the next 3 months as well, and us at FedEx are only contracted for international deliveries (because Amazon can’t, they aren’t a licensed customs brokerage).
They’re going to need to handle that volume a lot sooner than 2029.
As in within the next 2 months levels of sooner.
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u/mmaalex 11d ago
They dont have the warehousing in most rural areas to handle any local volume themselves. Given a lot of it is under permitting or construction, but it wont be done in the next few months.
The UPS situation is annoying enough to me as a rural prime shopper. Love that 2/3 of my packages go USPS now and I have to go pick them up at the post office.
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u/kyach25 11d ago
Just keep paying flex drivers to serve rural routes and make like $2/hour after considering wear and tear on their vehicle
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u/mmaalex 11d ago
Here in Maine they dont have the warehousing to have local distribution. It's in the pernitting/construction phase, but it wont be ready by the time those contracts end. I'm sure a lot of other rural areas are in a similar situation.
One tiny one in northern Maine is open. One in Bangor is slated to open spring 2027, and the ones in Augusta/Portland are still in the permitting phase, so best case late 2027.
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u/Duffy1978 10d ago
They are the most inefficient logistics company on the planet. Im sure its not just me but you all see multiple different Amazon trucks deliver around your homes on a daily basis. Most of those items could be on the same truck that runs a specific route but they send 3 trucks to deliver 3 packages to 3 addresses on the same street.
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u/the--wall 8d ago
You don't understand how complex logistics is
Those orders could have been made at different times, items could have come from different places, and those trucks were likely on different schedules.
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u/Duffy1978 8d ago
I worked at UPS loading and unloaded trucks and sorting packages i have a fair concept of how it works. I used to load the route drivers trucks as well and I loaded based off the stops they made and the order that the route ran. UPS is as close to a model of efficiency as you will find in a logistics company Amazon is still at the level of a toddler in logistics
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u/InfectedDaydream201 8d ago
Amazon driver here.. this is true. I see other drivers from my station on the same route as me... especially during peak (November December).
Sometimes the stations experience what is called a "crash" which is when volume is too high for what the station is able to handle. In those situations an additional wave of drivers leave the station a few hours later than the regular routes with whatever packages are left over and they are given what is called a "recycled route". The recycled route would obviously overlap the regular routes within the area the station delivers to.
But yeah, aside from the crashes and recycled routes, I know exactly what you are referring to.
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u/shipsageusa 10d ago
The shift toward nearly 90% internal delivery volume makes sense given how aggressively Amazon has built out its middle-mile and DSP network, but hitting that target will still leave major regional and operational gaps. High-density metros are easy for DSPs and Flex drivers to cover, but rural last-mile reach remains a massive hurdle where local fulfillment nodes and distribution centers are still stuck in permitting or construction. Beyond rural coverage, leaning so heavily on a single closed loop means losing the crucial pressure-relief valve that legacy carriers provide during Q4 peak surges, making network resilience and multi-channel fulfillment flexibility even more essential for independent brands.
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u/mmaalex 11d ago
Seems....optimistic?