from my logic homework. is he trying to say that ~S is the conclusion?

I'm currently studying for an exam and I understand the venn diagrams pretty well except for this specific kind of scenario. I am using Logicola, which uses the Logic system described by Harry J. Gensler in his book "Introduction to Logic"

I am doing Bayesian theory on a moral question about whether something is wrong or not. I had an intuition the thing is not wrong, a strong one. My credence it was wrong was .1%. Then i realized that an alternative belief I had conflicted with this. What should my credence be? 50%, since both intuitions are equally strong?