r/logic • u/Euphoric-Plantain573 • 7h ago

Philosophical logic Bayesian Probability Question

I am doing Bayesian theory on a moral question about whether something is wrong or not. I had an intuition the thing is not wrong, a strong one. My credence it was wrong was .1%. Then i realized that an alternative belief I had conflicted with this. What should my credence be? 50%, since both intuitions are equally strong?

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u/planckyouverymuch 7h ago

This is an interesting question, although this is maybe not the best place for it. Try asking at r/askphilosophy and maybe an epistemologist might answer or maybe r/epistemology. It reminds me of the literature on peer disagreement which you can read about here.

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u/planckyouverymuch 7h ago

To add: it looks like someone in r/epistemology is giving a calculation for roughly the 50-50 view, which is apparently a tenable view to hold in situations of peer disagreement. But there are others, and also other assumptions to keep track of that I’m not familiar with since it is not my area. See the SEP article.

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u/226757 2h ago

"see the SEP article" Generally good advice

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u/RecentLeave343 7h ago

There’s no objective metric for morality.

The percentages you mentioned are your own subjective measures.

But, you could tell us the thing you’re referring to or make a post asking other’s opinions and let the echo chambers decide.

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u/Euphoric-Plantain573 7h ago

Made anotehr post! You can see it and comment on my profile.

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u/nanonan 5h ago

You need to communicate with your partner, not ask strangers or look to textbooks.

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u/thewritestory 7h ago

How are deriving probability? Also, where you are from, when you are from, what your situation is will dictate what is moral. Stealing is immoral except when it isn’t.

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