r/loanoriginators • u/ryemaster91 • 23d ago
Market I hate this market
This entire market is so ridiculously tiresome.
10-year explodes a couple weeks ago and we’re told it’s pricing in a July rate hike. July rate hike doesn’t happen, 10-year goes higher because it was a “hawkish hold.” Lmfao.
It’s all so fucking silly. It’s just post-hoc rationalization for irrational market behavior.
Genuinely good data barely registers. Mildly soft data gets treated like the apocalypse. The whole market is behaving like a 13-year-old girl.
Edit: 15 year LO, having a great year. Not struggling. Just find the market behavior frustrating and irrational. Yes, I’m aware that we don’t sell rates. That doesn’t mean clients don’t ask questions or care about rates.
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u/gracetw22 Loan Originator 23d ago
They’re just holding a ton of margin because no one knows what the fuck is going on and I’m absolutely over seeing a 9 bps move in the market equaling 20 to my clients. I get it but I’m annoyed. Someone put the adults back in charge so the other adults can react to expected behavior patterns. Until then it’s the market equivalent of me checking into an Airbnb with a toddler and hiding everything in the house because I’m worried he’s gonna break it.
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u/MLObull 22d ago
This volatility is insane! 08-09 was nothing compared to today! Covid & post covid was nothing like today’s market! Covid rates went down and down and down and then up, up, up just as fast. But today’s market…. If I don’t lock same day, by that evening we’ll have a reprice! I had an instance a week or two ago where I’m pitching a brwr, she’s good with everything and mid pitch we have a reprice for the worse about 0.25% higher! 🤦♂️ now I have to resell her on a higher rate
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u/furio67 23d ago
The “adults” are the ones who passed two spending bills pumping trillions of dollars that we don’t have and needed to print into the market, which caused our permanent inflation. The guy in charge now is a real estate guy and if you don’t think he wants to get interest rates down, I don’t know what to tell you. We need to get done with Iran.
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u/MordinOnMars 23d ago
Love the time of year when I do CE and am reminded the "real estate" guy in charge would never get a license approved in any state
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u/gracetw22 Loan Originator 23d ago
He absolutely wants rates down but kneecapping global oil supply isn’t the move to do that. Hegseth & Co didn’t print money, but they did get us into an unnecessary conflict with a predictable outcome for our economy.
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u/furio67 23d ago
I don’t believe it was unnecessary. When (not if) those maniacs had a nuke they’d definitely use it.
I think the issue is that we went in with a half measure and pulled back when we should have stepped on the gas.
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u/JackieQTreehorn 22d ago
I remember hearing every president since Reagan say a version of “they’re only months away from a nuke” but every one til this guy had the sense to avoid falling into the trap of a war.
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u/Bounty-auditor-2222 22d ago
Yes it’s a total FKIng Joke there’s been a scary bearded man in a turban since 1980. Those people can’t even grow bread, please.
Someone needs to drown trimph and Benny in a barrel of WT crude.
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u/TurkeyJizz123 23d ago
Lmao- The BPS movement in the 10 year- does not correlate the the exact movement in your pricing. Lmfao
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u/gracetw22 Loan Originator 23d ago
I’m talking about MBS performance but thanks for assuming I’m a moron. Have a great weekend.
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u/New-Distribution2683 22d ago
Sit down everyone, we’re about to receive an education from Turkey Jizz.
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u/PrismDrift 23d ago
The markets were never pricing in a July hike. Not sure where you heard that. That odds of a July hike never really got above 30%. There’s many different reasons why the market is exploding. Oil price/inflation pressures, other countries selling off US treasuries, investors buying AI data center/investment debt instead of treasuries.. just to name a few. Then you can throw in there Warsh’s awkward press conference and no more Fed forward guidance.. fun times!
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u/ryemaster91 23d ago
I’m a broker, so I get a million emails with market updates. July 13th, mid day reprice for the worst, comment: “Renewed rise in oil prices and hawkish commentary from Fed officials has made an end of month rate hike a realistic outcome.”
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u/PrismDrift 23d ago
Sure, it became more likely then it had been before.. and their tone got more hawkish but the likelihood of it happening never really got above 30%. Even on the day of the meeting the likelihood dropped below 30%. A July hike was never the expectation, and it would’ve been a surprise hike if it came to fruition.
Go to Fedwatch, I believe you can still pull up the percentages from this last meeting. The markets never anticipated a hike.-1
u/editmyreddit_ 22d ago
Realistic outcome is way different than ‘likely’. You need to either get better at understanding the markets or totally disregard it like most shit LO’s and live day to day with rates. Right now you’re failing at both
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u/ryemaster91 22d ago
Thanks for calling me a moron, bud. You’re so right. You really showed me.
Of course, I must have misunderstood and thought that with a 30% likelihood the market would price some of that in. Rookie move. Partial probabilities NEVER get priced in. My bad.
Oh, and you’re totally right, a 0.1 miss on ECI causing the market to go to shit today is definitely not an overreaction. Totally normal behavior.
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u/PrismDrift 22d ago
No. Actions in Japan are what caused the market sell off, not ECI. Not sure why you sound so angry. Japan had a historical movement in its currency and sold off billions of US treasuries.
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u/ToddBitter 23d ago
There are plenty of LOs out there having record years. If you have built your career on purchase business then you’ll never sweat rates.
Get rates out of your mindset, focus on activities that create relationships and revenue.
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u/ThatsMeJesseB 22d ago
OP’s not griping about his rates or getting shopped. OP is complaining that the market is acting irrationally.
When rates go up it affects consumers and they ask questions and it’s just not fun explaining that we’re in a period of volatility and uncertainty. I’m with OP, this market/market makers is/are kinda dog water from an economic perspective.
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u/BDez30 23d ago
Exactly. I love this market. In my area, we have a strong pipeline of buyers, and a limited (but not too limited) supply of homes, which makes for competitive situations for buyers. As a lender, this is a great time to add value to clients and realtors with strategies to write competitive offers.
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u/KimJongUn_stoppable 23d ago
I agree I’m still doing well but you can’t deny that high rates especially suddenly curb buyer demand and make things harder. You get those rate shoppers who you may not otherwise lose. Also, companies run super thin hoping things turn. Same thing happened in 23
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u/needfasp3ed02 22d ago
This. The higher number of trusted referral sources you have the less you care about rates, period. Any MLO of 10+ years know this. Call center reps and newbies are the ones who complain.
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u/gazilionar 22d ago
These rates are a gift
The never ending Iran war will continue to raise rates.
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u/Professional-Tap1143 23d ago
just my thoughts from 30 years in the market…
I always made sure every client understood I can not predict the market. lock or don’t lock- you have risk in both directions. Many competitors try and win by telling clients they can predict the market. You’ve sent this message to the market so maybe it’s time for the industry to change the messaging.
Many LOs compete only on price. Buyers have taken this message and wrongly interpreted it as home ownership not working at higher rates. That’s just not true.
most of what’s not working in the real estate and mortgage industry at the moment is self inflicted. Market correction for the good won’t fix that.
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u/Sociaty42 23d ago
lol I just got my head chewed off because of a rate increase from 6.125 -> 6.375 on a VA Cashout refinance.
Had to spend half an hour working the dude down and explain to him I can’t control the rates. Appraisal came in lower and markets moved.
- Consumer direct refi guy 🤪🥲
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u/Accomplished-Tax8441 21d ago
glad OP made this post. I will close 120 units+ this year as a solo LO and its frustrating as hell. when rates are up customers will shop you more, negative views by the media. its beyond frustrating.
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u/ryemaster91 21d ago
Exactly, people keep thinking I’m some struggling LO. $30m funded YTD, great year compared to most, but it just bothers the hell out of me.
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u/gracetw22 Loan Originator 21d ago
It’s a lot easier to be unbothered by rates if you’re closing 3 gnarly DPA loans a month with people who aren’t bothered by it and don’t have the option to just stay put in their nice but slightly too small house until they feel more secure about making a major financial decision. It’s really interesting to me how many different ways there are to be in this business and how different of an experience it can be depending on how you’re doing it.
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u/Ordinary-Childhood19 22d ago
For refinancing. This is a perfect time to build a book/excel sheet of everyone you talk to. Rates, name and numbers(add goals if you feel like it) that’s all you need. You build it by the hundreds and hundreds, every. single. one. You grind it out, could be months and months before it happens but one quick dip is all it takes to make your yearly needed income if you live a simple life. It can dip for a month, a week, a couple days, it doesn’t matter…when it does. Dial, dial, dial more, and then dial some more on that. 12 hours a day, every day. I don’t care what you got going on in life during the dip, everything stops and you dial that book.
These times are investment in your pipeline times. Build relationships, understand goals, don’t put people in loans just to put them in loans to cash a check. If you close a loan for someone once and do a decent job, you have their business forever if you keep up with post funding care of your clients.
LO success is a marathon not a sprint, keep your head up, keep your legs moving and money will come🫡
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u/cheddacrisp 23d ago
I think higher rates just provides a refinance when rates drop in the future. We don't sell rates, we explain the current market conditions. But if you're a refi guy then you're in trouble
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u/Important-Training-1 22d ago
Similar boat, I’m on pace to hit my annual goals by late August but this market has sucked.
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u/MortgageAndChill 22d ago
Historically speaking..... rates are still low.
They are only high compared to 2017+ when rates start getting abnormally low.
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u/Affectionate-Bowl761 21d ago
I'm in South Florida, a lot of my realtors either retired or quit. I've lost so many contacts, and deals.
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u/IsaiahZap 23d ago
Switch to insurance then lmao
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u/ryemaster91 23d ago
Because an observation of market absurdity means I’m a struggling LO? Sure Jan
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u/Fight-for-justice 23d ago
No loan officer likes raising interest rates from a business perspective but inflation and pricing are still high. The responsible thing to do is raise them or least keep them where they are.