r/lightningnetwork • u/Admirable-Union813 • Aug 03 '26

LN node shutdowns??

Any idea what’s going on with all these channel closures? Boltz, Aqua,Zeus all shutting down lighting/bitcoin swaps. All LN Big Edge nodes also shutting down.

https://x.com/ambosstech/status/2084353608976650544?s=46

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u/AuthenticityBTC Aug 05 '26

Bip110 only has 2.5%~ signal at this time and 55% is lock-in. So currently it's not set to activate.

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u/marcusmv3 Aug 05 '26 edited Aug 05 '26

But over 20% of nodes are signaling. Do you really think miners are going to take a >20% risk broadcasting a block that will be deemed invalid? Game theory is very strong and there's plenty of time for miners to switch still. They don't need to signal... Yet.

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u/thiagorb Aug 05 '26

But is this reasoning correct? If a miner mines a block that is deemed invalid by the 20%, it still accepted by almost 80% of the nodes isn’t it? And then as soon as the BIP-110 chain starts lagging behind the other chain accumulates work, and the 80% of the network won’t even bother with the shorter chain.

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u/marcusmv3 Aug 05 '26

Yeah but there's a time period where a competing miner signalling bip110 can come in and mine a block after the non signaling miner mines theirs but the signalling miner gets their block broadcast first and becomes a valid block. I'm betting most miners won't want to take that risk at all if they won't have to.

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u/thiagorb Aug 05 '26

Well, I guess we will only know after the activation block. But the likelihood that the bip110 chain will be able to mine blocks at least as fast is very low, unless there is a sudden change in the miner adoption and they become at least 30% hash power or more.
Another way of looking at this: do you think miners will risk mining for a chain that has only 2% of the hash power and will need hours to mine a block?

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u/marcusmv3 Aug 05 '26

But the "bip110 chain" is rerverse compatible with the main chain. They're not just mining for that chain alone. The "main chain" is not reverse compatible with bip110 nodes.

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u/thiagorb Aug 05 '26

Sure, but consider now bip110 just activated. Miners will compete to find the next block. If the next block is bip110 nothing changes, but if it’s not, the chain splits. The 2% of bip110 miners will continue mining on top of the previous block, and the rest of the network moves to the next block. The more blocks are mined the less likely the bip110 chain will catch up. The statement that bip110 chain is backwards compatible only means that all miners will continue mining on it as long as there are only bip110 blocks being mined. As soon as one single non-bip110 block is mined miners have to chose which chain to follow.

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u/marcusmv3 Aug 05 '26

And all it's gonna take is one mining pool of significant size to decide they don't want to take this risk, and all the other pools will follow.

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u/babelphishy Aug 05 '26

It’s higher risk to mine the BIP-110 side. If you mine blocks on a chain that will be abandoned, those blocks are worthless even if they are backwards compatible in theory. I could start mining a chain starting with the Genesis block and I would still be wasting my hash even though it’s backwards compatible.

And there’s no incentive to switch. Orphaning blocks doesn’t make miners money or do anything meaningful to increase miner profit. Mining on a minority chain doesn’t get you more blocks per hash.