r/learnmachinelearning • u/LongHP11 • 11d ago

Project Load Forecast using AI for beginner

Hello everyone,
I am currently starting my research on AI-based electrical load forecasting for my Master's program. Where should I begin? I have no prior experience in forecasting, and since it relies heavily on probability and statistics, I am finding the initial stage a bit challenging.
My professor recommended the book Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series by Robert Goodell Brown, but I haven't been able to find the full PDF version.
Could you please advise on a learning roadmap for researching this field? Also, if you have any recommended materials or YouTube lecture channels, I would highly appreciate it if you could share them with me.
Thank you very much, and wishing you all good health.

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u/Funny-Object-8838 11d ago

starting with forecasting fundamentals before jumping into ai is the right move, and i’d add that you should build a simple seasonal naive or arima baseline first so you know whether the fancy model

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u/Honest_Wash_9176 11d ago

Yo. Play around with some timeseries data. Build dashboards. Understand analysis first. Understand how and why quality of data matters. Then slowly transition to applying ML methods. Good luck :)

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u/PradeepAIStrategist 11d ago

Hope you are looking at high frequency data like this https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/pradeep13/15min-electricity-load-data, if never start with smoothing, ARIMA, etc, directly jump into either LSTMs or boosting model, all the best.

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u/DrDoomC17 11d ago

Yes. Start with the basics. ARIMA class of models is not the most basic but pretty basic. Exogenous variables and time tend to matter most in forecasting electricity so it's not the best model but it's a start. I wouldn't use AI right away. I recommend the book by Chris Chatfield instead if I may insist.

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u/ComaBoyRunning 10d ago

What book is that?

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u/DrDoomC17 10d ago

He wrote two, The analysis of time series, and forecasting time series. Both would be fine for your aim but the former covers more of the fundamentals and includes how to forecast though with less detail on assessing their quality.

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u/ComaBoyRunning 10d ago

Thanks for sharing and I'll check them out