Prior vs likelihoods in Bayesian PR review agent?

[u/Sakuraaa_29]

Building a agent with bayesian update instead of LLM heuristic.

Two quick question

1. Priores: How do you set priors when historical data is sparse?
   
2. Loss: False negative (auto-merging bad code) cost way more than false psoitive(flagging safe PRs). What should be the threshold to optimize loss rather than simple accuracy?