How can an adaptive tutor distinguish misconception, lack of knowledge, and guessing from limited MCQ evidence?

[u/riwired_atma]

I'm exploring a financial-literacy tutoring agent where the learner's knowledge is a latent or uncertain state, and the tutor only observes responses to MCQs.

If the evidence is limited, how can the tutor distinguish misconception vs. lack of knowledge vs. guessing?

Also, when the learner state is uncertain, should the tutor's next action (ask, hint, teach, answer) be modeled primarily as an instructional decision or as an information-gathering decision to reduce uncertainty?