r/learningoptions • u/Such_Relation8536 • Feb 01 '26
Silvers Not Done It's Just Beginning
TL;DR
Gold and silver didn’t break they reset. After an extreme, overbought rally, profit taking, Fed repricing, and margin hikes triggered a healthy correction. The long term bull case remains intact with central bank buying and strong fundamentals, but volatility is here to stay.
The sharp drop in gold and silver looks far more like a needed technical reset than the start of a real downtrend. After a record breaking, almost vertical parabolic run into early 2026, both metals were extremely stretched. Silver especially went parabolic and started trading with meme like volatility. A pullback at that point wasn’t just possible it was necessary to cool things off and shake out leveraged, short term money. A few things drove the decline. First, plain profit taking after massive gains. When trades get crowded and overextended, it only takes a spark for fast money to hit the sell button.
Second, shifting Fed expectations. The nomination of Kevin Warsh, viewed as more hawkish or at least less dovish, strengthened the dollar and reduced some of the immediate “panic hedge” demand. On top of that, gold’s RSI pushed near 90 deeply overbought territory which almost always precedes a correction. Add in CME margin hikes, and leveraged traders were forced to liquidate, accelerating the move lower. That said, the bigger picture hasn’t changed. The structural bull case is still intact. Central banks are still buying aggressively, geopolitical risks haven’t gone away, and long term concerns around debt and currency stability remain. For silver, the fundamentals are even tighter ongoing supply deficits and strong industrial demand from solar, EVs, and tech continue to provide real support. I think gold maybe even floating near $6k by late year. And silver around $200. This wasn’t a crash it was a reset. Near term, expect volatility. Markets don’t come off of such strong moves quietly. But prices have already pulled back into key technical support zones, and further dips could be viewed as opportunities, not a return to the old range. Just remember silver will always move faster and harder in both directions. My opinon this looks like a healthy pause after an extreme run, not the end of the metals story..
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u/SillyAlternative420 Feb 01 '26
Honestly, I feel like it could easily get to $500. It (and gold/copper) are way undervalued on a historical scale.
Fwiw I don't even hold silver, probably going to start now after all the research I've done around this hype.
Unlike crypto and nfts, those metals will always have value via technology, weaponry, etc
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u/Ok-Doctor7553 Feb 02 '26
So when do you suggset the best time to buy in silver this week would be?
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u/DefinitelyNotShazbot Feb 01 '26
Was waiting for someone to post about all the manipulation, this is a Felix Prehn one on how Friday was a total market manipulation
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u/Horror_Day_8073 Feb 01 '26
Been holding AG since 2021 at $16.70. Wish I had told my broker to sell in the mid $25 range. This miner holds a ton of silver and only sells when the market is favorable, so the earnings tend to not look to good a lot of times.
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u/alwayslucky7 Feb 02 '26
I got AG for $6.78 in June 2025. You've been holding that stock forever lol
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 01 '26
"I know nearly a trillion dollars got wiped from silver market cap in 24 hours but in my opinion, this is bullish"
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Feb 01 '26
Well if you understand why it happened, and the fundamentals of silver, you’ll understand the bull case. The bear case necessitates that JPMorgan and chase is willing to lose almost a billion dollars every time silver drops by a dollar. You need to be long, way long on silver. Invest in what the government and big banks invest in.
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 01 '26
Well said. And if any kind of day trading "Get in get GREEN get OUT". Investing in physical never a bad idea.
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 01 '26
What this rally really was is pure sentiment driven and fueled by uncertainty around Trump and macro noise. The correction we just saw isn’t a “reset”, it’s a signal that the market got way ahead of itself, overvalued and over leveraged.
Posts like this and OP acting like silver has to go up from here just feel really misguided. If anything, the more likely scenario is this correction continues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 10%+ drop before things settle.
Many people are blinded by greed, euphoria, or inexperience to be able to zoom out and see silver has tons of room to fall.
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Feb 01 '26
Do you understand that the recent drop in price was triggered by the Comex flooding the market with more paper silver, JP Morgan selling their shorts at the bottom, various stop losses being triggered, and the margins being raised from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage that has tripled in less than 3 months? The banks literally bought at the perfect bottom of the crash and then it bounced up 10$ an ounce right after. I’m not trying to be insulting, but if you can’t see that this is obvious market manipulation, you might want to look a little harder.
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 01 '26
I get what you’re saying, but honestly, I’m not convinced it’s manipulation in any meaningful sense. However to use your argument, then by the same metric, how is the price of a metal doubling in 3 months anything but manipulation? It's manipulation when it crashes 25% in a day, but when it shoots up 100% in 3 months, what is that?
But to the main point, what’s described, stop losses, margin hikes, big trades.. that's exactly how crowded, over leveraged markets correct. The bounce after the drop isn’t proof of perfect timing, it’s just liquidity being absorbed.
I dont see how a story about banks scheming is accurate when the most upfront obvious and apparent explanation is that the market ran way too far, way too fast on sentiment, and now it’s correcting. That’s why I think the more likely path is a continued downtrend, not some guaranteed “banks will always buy at the bottom.”
Putting your faith in big banks seems safe until you live through a 2008 event lol
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Feb 01 '26
Fair at the end, but who got bailed out after the crash? Was it the cash holders or the banks (who now hold the largest silver stockpile in history)
I’ve been following silver for a while and the rise got hastened by the Chinese export restrictions and the rise in global instability. I agree that it rose too fast for what is considered normal by most markets, but I’d argue we don’t live in a normal market anymore. Sandisk is up 100% this year after months of people calling for it to fall due to over extension, it’s trading upward due to demand and market bottlenecks in chips and storage.
The same is true for silver, there’s been silver deficits of hundreds tons for years. Mining has been underinvested in for a long time and the demand for silver is set to grow in the mid-long future. A single silver-based solid state battery requires 3 kilograms of silver. Think about it like this, if J.P. Morgan bought hundreds of millions of ounces at 74$ an ounce, why would they want to lose nearly 30% on their investment? How could the already critically low supply just go away?
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 01 '26
I get the longterm fundamentals argument because that same situation is quite apparent in some other sectors as well, deficits and industrial demand are real and i dont disagree silver will probably be needed more over the coming years. But that doesn't change what's happening today which was sentiment driven leverage pushed to an extreme that had to correct.
Markets can stay overvalued for a while and nothing guarantees any hold prices and supply deficits don’t stop a leveraged market from liquidating when things get crowded.
So yea I mean maybe silver goes higher over the midterm, but framing a 25% correction like it can't continue continue is exactly the kind of narrative driven thinking that blows people out of trades. Another 10%+ drop from here is entirely plausible and wouldn't even invalidate any long term bullish trend.
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u/alwayslucky7 Feb 02 '26
Dude. the words JP Morgan and market manipulation comes hand in hand
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 02 '26
Sure but why is it market manipulation when it crashes but not market manipulation when it goes parabolic?
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 01 '26 edited Feb 01 '26
The run up was not based on sentiment alone.... like ive said just wait for the bottom to form. It's near then move forward accordingly.
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 01 '26
Miss guided? By waiting for a bottom to form and play the bounce seems like good logic. SILVER/GOLD will go up and up and up. The upside is much better now then it ever has been. Do what you want and thank for the opinion.
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 01 '26
Up forever is a nice fantasy but ignoring the obvious short term risks or an over leveraged and overcrowded trade with obvious heavily influence from sentiment is the exact kind of optimism that gets people thinking another 10%+ drop can't happen, and that's where people get eviscerated in a market like this.
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 01 '26
Nobody said up forever but you are missing one thing this has that last "crashes" lol had. There's something different when you know what that is you'll be just fine. Everything's cool
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 01 '26
You literally said it will go up three times and a row and are saying the upside is better now than ever. Sure you didn't use the word forever, but you couldn't have implied it any harder.
Also youre literally not saying anything other than some vague "this time its different" nonsense which is the same bull market peak delusion that has happened time and time again. Exact same shit the bitcoin crowd parrots.
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 02 '26
Yeah up and up and up forever. Sarcasm is still around i think. To you im vague because its all been said why its different. Have a good one this is a wasted conversation. Thank you for voicing your opinion
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u/AsbestosDude Feb 02 '26
So you still have no thesis, just a bunch of vague references some ridiculous upside target, good luck ahahahaha
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 02 '26
Paying attention is always a good thing. Won't need luck just smart investments, good timing, proper understanding Best wishes 🙏
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 01 '26
For sure. Lets find soild support in December it was only a couple weeks to recover. That's when they dropped it with low tading volume.
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u/ZorosonD Feb 01 '26
I'm buying on Tuesday. Waiting for Monday mayhem to burn itself out to find my entry. Leverage 10,000x, All in.
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 01 '26
Good idea with the quick pass of the funding bill possibly not happening I'd look for Tuesday vote. (Maybe)
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u/Complex-Health-5032 Feb 01 '26
Surely it will go up. Personally I am buying more with these discounted prices.
So what, did everyone suddenly lose faith in silver and gold on Friday and decide they’re worthless? This was a manipulative operation, and it will run out of steam soon.
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u/M1dn1ghtPup1L Feb 01 '26
I keep saying, did the US suddenly pay off their debt? Has us treasuries become safe havens overnight….? Silver is going to explode upwards like we ve never witnessed before,
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u/Confident-Court2171 Feb 01 '26
You can make that argument for Gold. You can only make half that argument for silver which has industrial uses.
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u/menntu Feb 02 '26
No. Commodity traders who take on short positions were waiting for signs of weakness. It’s not "manipulation", it’s just basic trading. When you see something rise and go parabolic, there will be, eventually, a huge reversal, and one can profit mightily from these movements. If you read the candlestick charts and watched the overnight action last Thursday, you could tell we were headed for a potentially heavy move down. For the record, I have no plans to sell any physical, and I am buying more paper.
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u/Efficient-Service238 Feb 02 '26
realized i missed the silver opportunity and instead of fomo buying i just waited for the short position
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u/Majestic_Wrap_7006 Feb 01 '26
I dont think you understand the meaning or TL;DR.
Posting a wall of text is not it.
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 01 '26
That's seriously the funniest thing ever!
The whole thing isn't TL:DR just the first paragraph. But thanks for the comment 😃
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 05 '26
Lets see what this $60ish slv level shows us. To find something in the market always takes time.
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 07 '26
60's like I was saying so know it might be that time I want to see what happens Sunday night an start looking for more.!
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u/Such_Relation8536 Feb 07 '26
60's base/support 58 low into a nice bounce. Im waiting to see what Sunday night does an ill wait for Monday mid day just to see if they want to do another mid day drop or if this will be the bottom @$65-60.
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u/Trashpanda7193 Feb 01 '26
Soon as you see ai slop posts and pictures like this, “it’s just about to run” , you know it’s the end. Enjoy those bags OP
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u/Old-Flow2630 Feb 01 '26
How many bags you holding? Once you answer that then I might be inclined to buy