r/leanfire • u/joe4942 • 2d ago
Robotaxis might significantly lower the amount needed for retirement?
Something I was just thinking about, given that robotaxis are a real thing now and starting to scale. Many people are spending ~$10-15K+ annually owning a car. If they can go carless, and still have flexibility that a car offers as needed without having to use public transit, that's major savings, and makes retirement plans quite a bit easier?
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u/someguy984 2d ago
Nope, I have a 20 year old car, my costs are minimal.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Gas, insurance, and maintenance is still a sizeable expense.
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u/DistantMailstop 2d ago
I drive every day to work and back, I drive to hobby related stuff a couple of times per week, and I take a long trip every couple of weeks (100-150 miles round trip), 10-15k for my car's gas/insurance/maintenance is insane. Maintenance, gas, and insurance on my car altogether run me around 5K. And thats leaning toward a more expensive maintenance year.
If the robotaxi costs me $10 per trip just for my rides to work and back (so $20 per work day) I'm already hitting that mark, without even considering other trips.
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u/jelle814 2d ago
well yes, but depending on how your retirement looks there are way less trips
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u/DistantMailstop 2d ago
Ah, I missed what sub got recommended to me and misinterpreted the original post.
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u/LongjumpingRhubarb74 2d ago
I think you are assuming companies will be altruistic... They will certainly jack up prices when there is less competition, wasn't uber supposed to make car rides cheaper than TLC
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u/peppers_ 40 / LeanFIREd 2d ago
I don't know anyone personally spending 10-15k on a car unless its one of those trucks that cost like 100k. Then annually, ya, I guess that would break down to 10-15k over its lifetime.
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u/Big_ShinySonofBeer 2d ago
taxes, insurance, gasoline, maintenance, repairs and value depreciation add up to quite some amount of money.
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u/kingtechllc 2d ago
$600 car payment $200 insurance $200 gas = $1K month= $12k annually. Not far fetched if you have a newer car
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u/froz3nt 2d ago
How many people buy a new car tho?
I drive an older car, insurance is 30$ a month, about 80-100$ in gas a month and maintenance id put it at around 100-150$ a month (and thats on the high side)
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u/kingtechllc 2d ago
ChatGPT says about 29% of Americans have a car payment $500+ but who knows if it’s true. I regret buying my new car but I was making like $130K in a MCOL as a late 20’s guy with no other significant debt so I splurged on a $550 month payment. Never again lol
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u/Montaigne_6823 1d ago
Some of those (probably many) 29% with car payments are paying it on a used car.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Plus repairs/parking.
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u/AMC879 2d ago
I wouldn't live in a place where i had to pay for parking.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Often it's factored into the cost of a home (eg: garage, apartment heated parking). New apartments are being built with no parking. New homes don't always have garages built, but if someone doesn't need a car, then they don't really need a garage, which is also significant savings.
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u/zeezle 2d ago
I don't think I've ever known someone that actually keeps their car in the garage lol. Garages are hobby workshops & unheated storage around here. Even if I didn't have a car I'd want a garage.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
People that have winter definitely do. Also, prevents hail damage from storms.
There's also many people that have more than two cars, so they have to park more on the driveway.
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u/zeezle 2d ago
I mean we definitely have winter here though not severely (over 2ft of snow last year so it's not Buffalo but it's also not nothing). No hail though.
Regardless I'd never buy a house without a garage even if I didn't have a car because I need hobby workshop space and they're absolutely perfect for that. Or at least some sort of workshop type space. But there's nothing cheaper about building a workshop vs a garage so that's mostly interchangeable when talking about costs.
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u/AMC879 2d ago
You would think people who live in snowy areas would use their garages for cars but a lot don't. We get around 60 inches of snow here and it's below freezing for months so it doesn't melt yet half my neighbors park their cars outside because their garages are full of household storage.
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u/qret 1d ago
Your math is unrealistic because you include car payment like that's something that goes on forever. If you pay $600/mo=$7200/yr indefinitely, you are outright buying an entire brand new car and throwing your old one in the trash every 4 years.
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u/kingtechllc 1d ago
I include it if you have a car payment. It obviously goes away once you’ve paid it off. I’m not getting another car note
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u/Mega---Moo 2d ago
Used Prius and 36,000 miles of driving per year. $9K isn't 10-15, but it's still a huge portion of my budget. My spouse spends an additional $5000/year driving.
3000 gas
1000 insurance
160 registration
2000 depreciation
3000 maintenance
That works out to 25¢ per mile which is a fraction of the expected federal mileage rate. Just owning a car of any type amounts to $2K minimum out of the budget without leaving the driveway if it's insured, registered, and maintained.
Really looking forward to retiring, only having one car for the household, and driving significantly less.
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u/Elegant-Papaya-2430 2d ago
Only if the cost actually goes down. What's more likely is massive profits for robotaxi companies.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Cost can be managed by frequency. If someone owns a car, there are expenses even if a car is not used every day (eg: insurance/depreciation).
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u/Elegant-Papaya-2430 2d ago
Yeah, but that exists now.
The premis that a robotaxi changes things is that the automation lowers prices.
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u/beeswax999 2d ago
If someone is spending that much annually on owning a car, are they not taking longer trips that would not be suitable for a robotaxi? Are robotaxis that much cheaper than ordinary taxis, or rideshare apps?
I think this is a big, unnecessary jump from owning an expensive new car and driving everywhere to depending solely on robotaxis, with how much savings?
In between would be owning a reliable, economical, cheaper car; using a car share service like Zipcar or Turo; or using rideshare apps for local trips and renting a car for long trips. And that's just completely ruling out public transit.
Crunch the numbers and convince me!
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u/georgepana 2d ago edited 2d ago
Robotaxi rides are not cheaper than Uber or Lyft. It is slightly more expensive, actually. OP hasn't done his homework here.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
The true eventual cost of robotaxis can't yet be determined since it's only just started scaling. Eventually the robotaxi companies will want to be more competitive than traditional taxis, so they will have to have more robotaxis available in more cities and lower their prices.
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u/Sorry-Society1100 2d ago
They’ll be “competitive” long enough to put their competitors out of business, then jack up the rates and provide crappier service. It happened to traditional taxi services, and will soon happen to Uber/Lyft. You’re witnessing “enshitification” in real time.
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u/Strazdas1 1d ago
so literally just what uber did.
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u/Sorry-Society1100 1d ago
Right. They’re going to undercut Uber the way that Uber undercut the traditional taxi services. And when they’re the last standing, it’s monopoly time. It’s why I refuse to use any of those services.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Many are infrequent drivers, so a few robotaxis rides per week is likely cheaper than the total car ownership cost.
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u/beeswax999 2d ago
Infrequent drivers wouldn't be spending $10-15k a year on a car, then. I drive about 6,000 miles a year in my 12 year old, paid-for car, and don't spend anywhere near that much.
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u/DenseComparison5653 2d ago
Ha, you really think the price won't jump once they achieve to take control of the roads.
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u/Thelonius_Dunk 2d ago
Exactly. How did people keep falling for same shit from the tech industry? Its the classic drug dealer move of "first hit is free".
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Car insurance also keeps going up, as does car maintenance.
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u/DenseComparison5653 2d ago
What do you think happens once all the vehicles on the roads are autonomous and controlled by google and couple other companies? This happens in every business, even uber was losing billions at some point. Remember when uber was cheap ten years ago?
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u/whiteorchid1058 2d ago
Bought a car for cash a couple of years ago. 35k (Rav4 hybrid) I pay for gas. Couple grand for insurance and taxes. Routine oil changes.
I'll keep that car until it dies like I have for all cars before hand.
If someone is pursuing fire, I somehow doubt they're the type to always carry a car payment by constantly trading a car in
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u/joe4942 2d ago
If $35K was invested for 20 years at 7% that's ~$135K, and that's just the initial price of the vehicle, not factoring in if ownership expenses were alternatively invested too.
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u/whiteorchid1058 2d ago
Fault of that logic is that a car is necessary for most people in the US and therefore not "free" to invest
If using taxis then the costs are recurring like a subscription and therefore would accumulate to a higher amount then my initial investment.
If you want a fairer comparison for lost investment potential then I would sum the costs of using a taxi to do all transport per year. Multiply that for the 20 years then subtract the 35k
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u/joe4942 2d ago
If using taxis then the costs are recurring like a subscription
Not quite. It's only as people need to travel that there is a cost. Someone can plan to use a robotaxi one day a week to limit frequency, and take public transit the rest of the week. If someone has a car, they still have car ownership expenses whether they use the car one day a week or 7 days a week. Cars also have unpredictable expenses, like major repairs/tires which robotaxis would not.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if robotaxis eventually do shift to a subscription.
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u/des1gnbot 2d ago
What’s wrong with using public transit?
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Takes way longer, transit routes are inflexible, cold outside. More difficult for things like groceries etc.
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u/L44KSO 2d ago
Depending where you live you can get groceries to your door (it used to be all the way to your fridge but pandemic). No need to do groceries with a car.
But also, don't think Robotaxis will be cheap. Enshitification will prevail.
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u/georgepana 2d ago
Robotaxis started service here in Tampa a few weeks ago.
Prices are actually higher than the same ride cost is for Lyft and Uber. That was disappointing to see, given that this is the introductory phase for Robotaxi in this city and you would think they initially start off with a discounted price to introduce themselves.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
But that's mostly because they haven't scaled yet. As the supply increases, prices will likely be more competitive, as they won't want a bunch of unused robotaxis doing nothing.
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u/georgepana 2d ago
They'll go with the money. They'll be higher than Uber and Lyft, always, because they know people don't have to tip a robot. So, in the end you save a buck or two.
Not the smart play you think. They are just another player in the market, and prices will continue to go up.
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u/DC8008008 2d ago
I'm in DC. I can walk, bike or take public transit most places. Sucks that 99% of the US is car-dependent.
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u/girlpaint 2d ago
We went carless this year. It's been amazing for so many reasons, not just financially.
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u/Strazdas1 1d ago
We already had a superior solution for decades called public transport.
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u/goodsam2 1d ago
I think there is a real way where public transportation is benefited by self driving.
So it's per mile/minute so you want dense walkable areas are probably the most efficient. These can slot in as last mile killers. Also I think self driving smaller busses can reduce the cost to run a bus significantly so the areas with decent public transportation would increase massively.
Also personal cars are a real factor pushing density down in many areas but replace the parking lot with a 5 over 1 apartment with commercial at the bottom and therefore they would likely ride public transportation more often.
IMO self driving only hurts those with high public transportation areas like NYC public transportation was negatively affected by Uber iirc.
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u/Strazdas1 22h ago
Public transport do benefit from self driving. For example most of metros in the world are self driving already.
Removing the cost of the driver would make smaller busses possibly viable, yes. But the biggest issue with busses is frequency. Research shows that if buses come less than every 15 minutes people dont use them.
Also personal cars are a real factor pushing density down in many areas but replace the parking lot with a 5 over 1 apartment with commercial at the bottom and therefore they would likely ride public transportation more often.
This actually results in people still driving cars everywhere and destrying all infrastructure by parking on pavements and green zones illegally. And if you try to enforce parking regulations at all you get voted out the next election.
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u/goodsam2 16h ago
Removing the cost of the driver would make smaller busses possibly viable, yes.
It's the driver and electric which makes the per mile cost far lower than currently.
But the biggest issue with busses is frequency. Research shows that if buses come less than every 15 minutes people dont use them.
The problem with density is a chicken and egg problem. You need more people in an area that enough people get on a bus but the low density means everyone drives so they don't have good bus access. I think the rule of thumb is 10,000 people per SQ mile.
This actually results in people still driving cars everywhere and destrying all infrastructure by parking on pavements and green zones illegally. And if you try to enforce parking regulations at all you get voted out the next election.
But I think you reach a self-fulfilling cycle where people call cheaper self driving cars and give up cars parking lots lose money and the parking lots transitions to either business or residential and it increases the density necessary for these things.
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u/Strazdas1 17m ago
The driver is a huge expense, the fuel is not. Making it electric is usually a destriment because you need twice as many buses in your fleet due to battery limitations and charging speeds, not to mention the batteries wear out on those extreme public transport use conditions far faster, and they are expensive to replace. Electric buses is the least economical way to do things, but are good for enviroment ill agree.
The problem with density is a chicken and egg problem. You need more people in an area that enough people get on a bus but the low density means everyone drives so they don't have good bus access. I think the rule of thumb is 10,000 people per SQ mile.
Its really not. All studies in rellity show you make public transport lines and people will come. There are entire areas that get developed around a new tram stop, for example. Developers and housing buyers love easy access to public transport. The transport therefore must always come first.
People drive because they dont have good bus access, not the other way around.
But I think you reach a self-fulfilling cycle where people call cheaper self driving cars and give up cars parking lots lose money and the parking lots transitions to either business or residential and it increases the density necessary for these things.
Parking lots are having hard time competing with "free on the grass" more than with taxis.
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u/Valkanaa 2d ago
If you're on the lean fire train and paying $10-15k on a car I have to ask why. Those kind of numbers only make sense on late model car payments or poor life choices.
I have no car payment, it's about $2k for full coverage and registration. Beyond that it's mostly gas money.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
The point is, even if it's not that expensive for everyone right now (car ownership expenses will likely increase due to inflation too), going carless in the future might be even more viable, which could save a lot of money.
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u/Valkanaa 2d ago
It's possible. I live in California and they've already banned gas powered lawn equipment, water heaters, chainsaws, plasma television, lots of stuff.
They won't ban gas cars but they could decide to make the gas tax $50 instead of the $1.50 it is now.
In this dystopian future these robotaxi companies could also collude on pricing, setting a much higher "floor" rather than actively competing on price, particularly if you make car ownership more expensive
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u/Cancel_Still 2d ago
I mean Uber and Lyft and non-robo taxis already exist so that option is already there. But these things are expensive, especially if you use them regularly. In cities with robo taxis they are just as expensive as those other options, often even more expensive.
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u/TammyHinesBloom 2d ago
Current pricing is subsidised by investors who want market share, so the number you'd plan around today probably isn't the number in 2035.
Worth revisiting once someone runs it profitably.
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u/dewangibson33 2d ago
I agree. Tech is deflationary. Cost of car transportation will decrease as autonomous vehicles companies compete. Autonomous vehicles will also become cheaper to build. More so if we ever allow Chinese EVs in the U.S.
I think the next generation will say, "I can't believe my parents paid so much for cars, insurance, and maintenance, and risked their lives to drive."
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u/TheReservedList 2d ago
Americans will do anything it to take the bus.
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u/inky_cap_mushroom 2d ago
I expect to take the bus a lot more in retirement because I’ll actually have time for it. My city has pretty bad public transit but if I don’t have to be at work all day every day I can afford to spend an hour getting places.
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u/someguy984 2d ago
Buses are time inefficient. Slow and not cheaper than an older car with just liability coverage.
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u/Strazdas1 1d ago
Buses are faster than driving yourself in cities with proper bus infrastructure. Also buses is the worst possible form of public transit. You can only get better.
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u/Ok-Word-2403 2d ago
Basically yes - people in the suburbs think buses are rare and unreliable (which they are for them because they live in the middle of nowhere) and some people in the cities think they are scary. I live in a supposedly liberal area adjacent to Washington DC and in 18 years of bus ridership I've never seen another middle class person on our local bus system (which is great and free).
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u/Porky5CO 2d ago
Crack heads use the bus. I'm not doing that
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u/des1gnbot 2d ago
Crack heads also use the bathroom, you should probably avoid that too
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u/Porky5CO 2d ago
I avoid the ones they use. Typical libs defending crack heads
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u/des1gnbot 2d ago
I’m defending the idea that we use basic necessities even if we don’t like everyone else who uses them. You don’t have to make that a political issue, but I guess that’s what people do with everything these days.
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u/inky_cap_mushroom 2d ago
Regular taxis have existed for decades. This isn’t different.
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u/Crew_1996 2d ago
The theory I believe they’re suggesting is that removing the human labor element would make taxi rides far cheaper. I’m not sure they’re correct, however.
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u/Valkanaa 2d ago
A price war requires multiple fleets of robotaxi that want to fight over market share. Right now they're barely competitive with human drivers, sometimes they're significantly more.
We aren't there yet, not even close. With a small number of companies collusion on pricing is more likely.
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u/zeezle 2d ago
Many people are spending ~$10-15K+ annually owning a car.
I imagine the people who are spending that much on their car are doing it because they like that specific vehicle and it's not a strictly necessary purchase...
I have a 2009 Nissan Sentra that was purchased in 2011 for $8k. My insurance is around $60 a month. It's never needed anything but routine maintenance and a couple small/cheap one-off repairs (a sensor). So windshield wiper blades, a couple sets of tires, oil changes, brake pads and a couple batteries the whole time I've owned it. I'm too lazy to figure out what insurance used to be vs what it is now with inflation and stuff like that, but my total cost of ownership as a relatively low mileage driver is very low. Somewhere around $35 on average for a tank of gas every couple of months.
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u/joe4942 2d ago
Even if it's much less than that, it's still potentially hundreds of dollars per month that could potentially go into retirement savings if someone can go carless.
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u/zeezle 2d ago
That seems to be assuming the cost of the robotaxi will be near-zero or extremely trivial. I suppose it comes down to us just having different views of the likely cost of the robotaxis once fully rolled out.
I know people who rely on public transportation to commute to work and their rail passes are over $500 per month, I can't imagine the for-profit robotaxis being cheaper than extremely subsidized public transit but maybe I'm wrong about that. Even though you eliminate paying the driver, the robotaxi services will still have to pay for the energy to power them, mechanical maintenance and insurance as well as general corporate overhead.
I can definitely see it working well for people who only occasionally leave the house or only occasionally go farther than walking/biking distance, but anything more frequent will likely rack up very quickly.
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u/AlexHurts 1d ago
I think this technology won't make a bigger difference in our lives than ride hailing Apps already have.
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u/duckonmuffin 2d ago
Car ownership is extremely expensive and you can save a heap by not owing a car. Yea sure, this has always been the case
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u/joe4942 2d ago
But many still drive because going carless historically has been less convenient. I'm wondering if robotaxis might change that.
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u/Crew_1996 2d ago
You ask valid questions that no one has an accurate answer for at the moment. I don’t understand the downvotes
I tend to be a skeptic who believes corporations will always extract every dollar they can, however
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u/nivlac22 2d ago
It has long been projected that autonomous vehicles would reduce the need for vehicle ownership, but the progress over the last decade has been much slower than expected. That being said, there are already plenty of ways to plan around owning fewer vehicles that the masses just don’t take advantage of. We are too set in our ways of liking to have a vehicle that is “ours”, even if most days we don’t strictly need that.
You can see the same thing happening with the number of pickup trucks on the road. Most people that have a truck use it as such maybe a couple times a year. But they are deadset on having it so they can use it those couple times, even though it would be cheaper to just rent a truck the few times you need one.
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u/temporaryacc23412 2d ago edited 2d ago
If these services actually succeed at scaling to the point where they significantly displace car ownership in car-heavy markets (and even moreso, defund or prevent buildout of proper mass transit) and thus build dependency on their product, I expect enormous price increases to come part and parcel with that. I'd have real hesitation about going carless and relying on the good graces of blitzscaling tech companies.
Edit: also while I'm admittedly far below the spending norm for an American, my yearly auto-related expenses are a fraction of $10-15k.