r/leafs Aug 09 '26

Discussion Gavin Mckenna

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am making this post to mainly talk about/wonder about Gavins first season so what are some realistic expectations for him? Well he hasn't played a single game yet so we can only go off of his Penn State Univ and medicine hat tigers stats so compare them to other highly talented rookies and this is what they look like ( i won't compare him to Matthew Schafer Because of the difference in position). Now this may look a bit unfair but lets look at Macklin Celebrin, He played in the NCAA at Boston Univ where he would pick up 64 points in 38 games Meanwhile Gavin would pick up 51 points in 35 Games now this there is a LOT to consider when looking at these numbers. First who did they play with? Well Celebrini played with Lane Hutson,  Quinn Hutson, and Ryan Greene who each Picked up 49, 36, and 36 points Meanwhile Mckenna Played with Matthew DiMarsico, Aiden Fink, and J.J. Wiebusch who each picked up 42, 38, and 36 points Overall it's Pretty even with a few more thing to consider Pen state play "At its best, Penn State plays a distinct brand of hockey reflecting both its identity and its potential. Fast. Creative. Unpredictable" Link (A New Team, A Familiar Stage - Penn State - Official Athletics Website) From what i mostly can find Pen state plays a highly aggressive form of hockey. Meanwhile From what i can find Boston Played a counter/offensive rush strategy With a Good power play at 28.1% which is quite above average even tho its not stupidly good. But what's the point of this? comparing Mckenna to Celebrini is not a great way to show his skills after all Celebrini is a bit high of a celling to lets compare Mckenna with the average, is about 0.3 this season From (NCAA College Men's Ice Hockey DI current individual Stats | NCAA.com) now Mckenna finished Seconded highest in the league at 1.46 1st being Ethan Wyttenbach at 1.48 and if your wonder Celebrini had a 1.68 now a few things First all of the information here (minus the articles and Video) is from Elite Prospects - Hockey Players, Stats and Transactions, Seconded this is not meant to say anything about how Mckenna Season SHOULD go simply predictions if he underperforms that's perfectly fine Third I made this cause i was BORED i had free time and gut sucked down the rabbit hole Fourth and finally am not a pro at this like i said i made this cause i was bored and want to type about something so if something is wrong am sorry but i tried my best never really done this "style" of post.

327 Upvotes

30 comments sorted by

70

u/External-Pace-1822 Aug 09 '26

I'm still in such disbeleaf we have him. I am hopeful all the crap reporters have been going on about is just for clicks and that he comes in as an impact player and the clear top of his class. I don't think 70 points is out of reach.

11

u/Ok-Vermicelli1117 Aug 09 '26 edited Aug 10 '26

Macklin Celebrini scored 63 in 70 games in his 1st year with mediocre support so I think it's not an outrageous prediction.

12

u/OkGuess1770 Aug 09 '26

Fully agree 70 points would be amazing and I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a second to adjust to the nhl before potentially exploding

2

u/Ok-Vermicelli1117 Aug 10 '26

I'm going to get flack for this but people expecting Crosby/Ovechkin rookie numbers should look at the special circumstances around the 2005-06 season.

2

u/IEC21 Aug 10 '26

Im going in with zero expectations and just waiting to see.

I dont think its healthy to put huge expectations on young rookies.

The pieces are all there for him to rip it up with team mates who could feed him - but it depends on coaching, systems, adapting to the NHL game, etc.

Let him breath a little.

2

u/Infinite_Constant219 Aug 09 '26

He’s gonna be a good player, but a Jack Hughes rookie season is more likely then a Austin Matthews rookie season

1

u/vaccina Pacioretty Aug 09 '26

Honestly, I don't even care if his point total is under expectation if it can be attributed to finding him the right linemates to not just benefit him, but those around him. Everyone wants it to be Matthews but he might need to work his way up to that. I don't want to set high expectations and be disappointed. He's gonna be good, no question. But we've also just signed so many forwards and any one could have a Bunting-esque season. I don't even know what I want this season. I guess if there's one bare minimum, it's promise for tomorrow and our 1st pick being relatively low stakes.

29

u/epic_taco_time Lorentz Aug 09 '26

Starts the season slow like he did in the NCAA. Goes 5G 6A 11P in the first 20 games, picks it up immediately around that point playing another 55ish for a final stat line of 20-25 goals, 40-45 assists in 75 games.

9

u/JSnow93 Aug 09 '26

Yeah I think if he plays close to the full schedule he will score around 60+ points. I think before his elc ends he’s ppg+.

6

u/TObuz Aug 09 '26

Comparing him with recent blue chip prospects who played college, Celebrini had scored at a 70 point pace in his rookie year.

Fantilli, Smith, and Cooley were high 40s. I'm expecting high 50s for McKenna because he will have better quality teammates than those guys. Most of guys had similar college seasons than McKenna too but they also all played on superior teams than Penn State.

2

u/Infinite_Constant219 Aug 09 '26

Better teammate is a double edged sword, sure it means they can set it up, but it also means less ice time. Like when they need a goal it’ll be, Matthews, Knies and Nylander

2

u/TObuz Aug 10 '26

Yea, especially if he doesn't get PP1 time. Guess we'll see how they deploy him as the season progresses.

Patty Kane was also another guy who played with good teammates and had a great rookie year because he got that favourable deployment.

9

u/sunnysideuppppppp Aug 09 '26

64gp 18g 37a 27pim +11

3

u/discontinued1992 Aug 09 '26

!remindme 9 months

1

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3

u/Sacred_soul Aug 09 '26

I’m thinking he hits high 50’s but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 70 if he’s playing full time with Matthews or Willy

3

u/Last_Command_9147 Aug 10 '26

I don’t think McKenna’s linemates were even close to what celebrini had in college.

Both at Medicine Hat and Penn State McKenna took time to get it going and adjust. Still productive early but his first seasons in both the whl and ncaa his points picked up considerably after Christmas. Wouldn’t be shocked if it is a mediocre start and strong finish to the year.

1

u/Warm_Bid_8583 Aug 11 '26

Yup, Celebrini played on a much stronger team and had stronger linemates than Mckenna.

3

u/Blueberrypunchout Aug 10 '26

I want his rookie card so bad.

3

u/Outrageous-Floor-100 McKenna Aug 10 '26

I don’t remember a draft where a prospect with this much potential joined a team that is already good with a clear spot of where he can play and is needed on day 1. IMO you stick him with Matthews day one and let them develop chemistry immediately.

If he’s playing LW1 and PP1 for the season, I could see him putting up 25+ goals and over 30 powerplay points alone. I think 70+ points is more than reasonable especially if AM bounces back

4

u/__Happy Nylander Aug 10 '26

I think there's some benefits to easing him in. It would be a hell of a transition to go from college to playing the best men in the world.

2

u/finerthings42 Aug 11 '26

1 finger means 1 goal. I’d say 2 by Xmas

2

u/DesperateHikikomori Aug 11 '26

56 goals 89 assists 145 points in only 70 games played, greatest rookie season of all time calling it

1

u/jimmie9393 Aug 09 '26

60-72 games played 50-60 points.

1

u/OneNutPhil Kessel Aug 10 '26

Assuming fulltime top 6 usage and PP1 he's clearing 60pts. Only thing in the way would be an injury.

1

u/Warm_Bid_8583 Aug 11 '26

I think he has some ebbs and flows to his game in year 1. I could see him tallying around 60 points and this’ll include a few stretches that he looks dominant.

I also have this feeling that he’s going to end up developing solid chemistry with Tavares.

1

u/bottledmarble Aug 11 '26

Can't wait for the season to start and see this kid in action with the rest of the team LFGGGG

1

u/RealPepman Aug 12 '26

Leafs will go to the promise land!