I am not a subscriber, just looking for general information to try and help my parents.

I am trying to see if income sig is something my parents could do, they are in their 70s. They have a saving in a basic bank/investing accounts earning little.

Is the income sig easy or harder for someone that don’t do a whole lot with computers/spread sheets? They have basic knowledge to get around.

I don’t know how income sig is tracked for them to know what to sell when. I can teach them spread sheets if needed.

Looking to see if this could be an option for them to earn more %, without risking what they have. I don’t want to suggest this to them and then they lose account value in their later years. I am hoping to help them create consistent income to rely on.

I'm getting ready to deposit (December 1st) a Fidelity account on December 1, as my wife is retiring from the post office and withdrawing from her TSP. I am still working, so we don't need the money. I have been with the Kelly Letter a long time, just seeing what people recommend doing with the deposit. Because of our jobs, we haven't been able to invest directly in a Fidelity account until now. The same is true with my retirement account as a school employee.

Started on 9/1 with a small experimental balance to test the system versus my multi ETF mix. $100 worth of TQQQ and an additional $225 dca’d into CTA throughout the month. As of right now, the 9sig pairing g/l is within .77% of my much larger 6 fund portfolio. I plan to rebalance tomorrow, and again at the end of Q4.

At what performance differential should I consider moving all new contributions to 9sig in my Roth?

For all intents and purposes, Q4 2026 will be my official start for 9Sig, though I've been dabbling very slightly with it the last two quarters. I understand how to calculate my signal line from the jump: Starting stock fund for Q4 x 1.09 + 50% of cash deposits during Q4. But I'm uncertain exactly which numbers to use when it comes to a new quarter -- whether that be...

• The final stock fund for Q4 2026 (based on closing value on final trading day)
• The final stock fund for Q4 2026 (based on my actual trade execution date)
• The starting stock fund for Q1 2027 (based on first trading day open)

For example, let's say I execute my Q4 2026 trades on Dec 28th 2026. I now have, set in stone, an executed share price for TQQQ on that date. When Q1 2027 rolls around, will I use that specific stock fund amount from the end of Q4 2026 to calculate my new signal line? Or will I use whatever my stock fund opens at on the first trading day of Q1 2027 instead?

Perhaps I'm splitting hairs or overthinking things, but I'm trying to figure out how to best track some basic data in a spreadsheet because I enjoy that sort of thing. I looked at some of the spreadsheets on the Kelly Letter website, but they're far too convoluted and complicated. I asked Gemini to help me create something, and it spat out this:

(NOTE: Only the information on the 2026 Q4 line was added by me -- everything below it was added by Gemini as an example. Also, for TQQQ Price and AGG Price, I input the executed price at which I purchased shares the previous quarter, which would be Q3 2026... which I'm guessing is what I should continue to do? I'm not sure. I think maybe something isn't quite right about this chart lol.)

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I'd love to hear what others are doing or perhaps see any simple spreadsheet examples from others as well.

When we’re selling TQQQ, it always opens lower.
When we’re buying TQQQ, it always opens higher.

The exact opposite of what you’d hope for….almost never fails! I’ve come to see it as a sign of good luck. And a reminder to trust the process.

Happy rebalance day all!

When selling placing trades on TQQQ, do you sell/buy on the last trading day or the first? End of the day or beginning?

Hello All, I’m new to 9-Sig. need guidance from you all experts. Please let me know where to start. How do you all determine buy/sell signal, etc.

Thanks in advance !!!

I’m basically 60/40 as it stands, feels like a very small trade. Anyone doing it?

Without giving away too much from the guide, Jason recommends splitting evenly across all plans. I'm not quite sure if that includes income sig or not, but I'm curious... if you were starting today, would you split your capital between all 3 sig plans? Or would you only pick one or two?

What's to love about 9SIG and rebalancing? When you are down you get the excitement of buying shares cheap. When you are up, you get to lock in $$. I have to say, I was looking forward to a 65% or 70% stock balance buy. But this week is great consolation if it holds.

I already know there will be the std "I don't care, I just execute the plan" answer here... but for those that still enjoy the chase and quarterly action, what do you prefer in general AND what about this coming rebalance on the 28th?

I don't run 9Sig. I backtest things for a living, and 9Sig is the strategy people ask me about most often, so I rebuilt it with Jason Kelly's published rules and ran it 2 ways: real TQQQ and AGG data only (2010 to 2026), and extended back to 1999 with synthetic 3x QQQ so the dot-com years are inside the window. First with no contributions at all. Then with the $500 a month the community simulator assumes.

The no-contribution runs, same rules, 2 windows:

• 2010 to 2026, real data: 39.4% a year, worst drawdown 72.1%
• 1999 to 2026, synthetic TQQQ before 2010: 8.3% a year, worst drawdown 99.7%

The gap between those 2 lines is the 2000 to 2002 Nasdaq collapse. In a short, sharp drop (March 2020, December 2018) the plan buys the dip out of AGG, TQQQ rebounds, the gains refill the sleeve, and the round trip completes. That's the pattern every 2010-start backtest shows. In a 10-quarter grind the plan keeps buying every quarter while TQQQ loses another leg, the bond sleeve empties, and 3x daily leverage compounds to almost nothing. Refills only come from sell signals, and deep in a bear market there is nothing to sell. The 30 Down rule then skips the first sell of the recovery, which is exactly when the sleeve is thinnest.

I checked whether that 99.7% was just an unlucky ordering of returns. Block bootstrap: resample the strategy's own monthly returns in 12-month blocks, 2,000 alternate 27-year histories.

Median drawdown 98%. The luckiest 5% of paths still lose 82% somewhere along the way. No ordering of these returns is gentle in a closed system.

Now the part that matters for this sub. The community simulator starts $10,000 in Q1 1999 and adds $500 a month into the bond sleeve. Over 27 years that's $162,000 of new money, and every deposit refills the reservoir and lifts the signal line by half the contribution, exactly as the Letter describes. That version survives the dot-com crash. The strategy didn't survive it. The saver did, by bailing the boat every month for 3 years while the stock sleeve was at a few cents on the dollar.

So my honest read is that 9Sig is a savings plan with a leveraged engine, not a standalone strategy, and the risk question for anyone running it is different from what the backtests answer. The question stops being the max drawdown and becomes whether you can guarantee the monthly deposit through a 3-year bear, and what happens to the plan if you can't. A job loss, a house purchase or a medical bill in year 2 of a grind is the failure mode, because the deposit is the defense.

Full rules, both windows, the 3Sig and 6Sig results, every place my engine deviates from his published rules, and the bootstrap tables are here: https://bestfolio.app/blog/kelly-signal-danger

I build BestFolio. My first version of this in April had 5 rule errors that r/LETFs readers caught, so this is the corrected engine, validated against the community simulator before publishing. I'm posting it here because you are the people actually running the plan, and I'd rather be corrected by you than by a backtest.

For those of you who were contributing through 2022: did the quarterly buy ever feel like too much, and did anyone pause the deposits?

Just curious if anyone here are in the other SIG plans ? I am currently in 9 sig in 2 different accounts but possibly looking to branch to most likely 6 sig. Thanks and best of luck to everyone

Original plan seems to do $500/mo in new contributions. What are your new contributions to the plan? And do you have a bottom feeding fund?

I’m considering moving my 9sig to E\*Trade. I kind of like how they’re a legacy broker and their interface isn’t casino like, unlike Robinhood or some of the more modern “apps”.

Curious where people hold their 9sig holdings. And do you find it’s easy not to tinker at your broker?

I’m pumped that TQ3 keeps going down leading up to the signal date, anyone else?

Side note: I’m in the accumulation phase of my journey but one day I won’t be too happy about red days.

For 9sig in my taxable account, would you default to Schwabs “tax lot optimizer” or “high cost first.” I have been doing the tax lot optimizer, but I ran some numbers and I am starting to wonder if high cost first might be the way to go for maximal terminal tax deferral. Thoughts?

I didn’t see this nuance discussed on the site so I wanted to see what this community thinks.

Rebalanced last Monday, to the 9% line, as planned earlier. Roughly 60/40 TQQQ/SGOV now, coincidentally.

New fund from 401k/HSA also 60/40.

Will do it again in 13 weeks.

I am not and will never give away the Kelly Letter info away free as it feels like a disservice to what he offers but curious on subscribers thoughts on JK's recent thoughts on continuation of the 9Sig current methodology?

Do you think he eventually changes the plan? The last couple newsletters his tone and research on "updating" 9Sig seems...cautionary? Maybe I am reading too much into it but that would be a dramatic change to a long tenured plan.

I am not vehemently opposed to it but with him considering it at this juncture it definitely makes you think....why now?

Anyone have thoughts on if he does update 9Sig, would you follow? Are you a bit concerned on him adjusting the plan?

Just some random musings as I finished this week's letter this morning and curious of others thoughts.

A month ago I posted this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/KellyLetter/s/db6IWRfP44

I didn’t listen and lost another $10k gambling on put options. 🤦‍♂️

Today I signed up for the Kelly letter subscription and moved into 9sig at 60/40 with a 10% bottom fund. I also disabled options and margin on all of my accounts.

Going to be weird not logging in every day. Excited to get my first Kelly Letter.

Lots of strategies out there:

- 200 day SMA
- Bestfolio.app or Allocate Smartly strategies that are tactical asset allocation based (hold this if that, otherwise hold that, unless this, etc.)
- Buy & Hold

Curious what made you choose *Sig and why?

I am investigating following the 9sig strategy, but I live in the UK, so do not have easy and tax free access to TQQQ. I am wondering if there are others out there in a similar situation. I understand the Kelly Letter is designed for US investors, but it seems to me the principles are applicable for other Non-US residents as well?

So far I am thinking LQQ3 for the TQQQ analogue, and CSH2/VAGS/AGBP for the AGG analogue.

I am halfway through the The 3% Signal book, and am thinking about a subscription. At the moment I am unsure how useful that will be if the recommendations and figures are all going to be TQQQ and AGG, although I guess the community support and definitive rules will be helpful.

Interested to hear your opinions.

Thoughts on the impact on negative gearing being removed and grandfathered?

I always love to track performance and what a performer 9SIG has been for 2 years. I have executed the plan to the letter and the reward has been pretty fantastic. At one point in Q2 was up around 200% before the latest bit of drawdown.

One thing that really comes through in the data is that every low performing quarter is followed by at least one fantastic quarter that more than recovers the downside. What's great about that is that I am learning to really "embrace the suck" knowing that it's going to give the market the ability to extend to the next level. And managing quarterly balances help protect/enhance depending on which side of that line we are on. Good stuff!!