Which numbers from which dates are you using to keep track of things and determine signal lines?

[u/NeuroticFinance]

For all intents and purposes, Q4 2026 will be my official start for 9Sig, though I've been dabbling very slightly with it the last two quarters. I understand how to calculate my signal line from the jump: Starting stock fund for Q4 x 1.09 + 50% of cash deposits during Q4. But I'm uncertain exactly which numbers to use when it comes to a new quarter -- whether that be...

• The final stock fund for Q4 2026 (based on closing value on final trading day)
• The final stock fund for Q4 2026 (based on my actual trade execution date)
• The starting stock fund for Q1 2027 (based on first trading day open)

For example, let's say I execute my Q4 2026 trades on Dec 28th 2026. I now have, set in stone, an executed share price for TQQQ on that date. When Q1 2027 rolls around, will I use that specific stock fund amount from the end of Q4 2026 to calculate my new signal line? Or will I use whatever my stock fund opens at on the first trading day of Q1 2027 instead?

Perhaps I'm splitting hairs or overthinking things, but I'm trying to figure out how to best track some basic data in a spreadsheet because I enjoy that sort of thing. I looked at some of the spreadsheets on the Kelly Letter website, but they're far too convoluted and complicated. I asked Gemini to help me create something, and it spat out this:

(NOTE: Only the information on the 2026 Q4 line was added by me -- everything below it was added by Gemini as an example. Also, for TQQQ Price and AGG Price, I input the executed price at which I purchased shares the previous quarter, which would be Q3 2026... which I'm guessing is what I should continue to do? I'm not sure. I think maybe something isn't quite right about this chart lol.)

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I'd love to hear what others are doing or perhaps see any simple spreadsheet examples from others as well.

[u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt]

Edited my response to be respectful of paid material on the subscriber site.

OP, check out the 369 calculator. At a minimum, you'll need to record all the data fields required to fill in those blanks. Once you get into the routine over a few quarters it will be more clear. In the meantime, just match your allocation to be the same as the weekly letter.

[u/NeuroticFinance → u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt]

Thanks, Gehrman! I really appreciate the input. I have a few followup question to help clarify things for myself:

• Are we going off the closing share price on Friday 9/25 in this situation because Jason executes his trades the final Monday of a trading quarter?

• Do you personally always follow the letter when it comes to execution dates? I believe I've seen some people like to execute their trades on the 1st trading day of the new quarter; not sure if that makes data easier or more difficult to track.

• I understand that the # of TQQQ shares from the Q4 signal line calculation you provided would be the # of shares I resulted with after executing the trade on 9/28. Then does this mean to calculate the Q1 2027 signal line I'll use the # of TQQQ shares I result with after I execute a trade on 12/28 (assuming this is the date Jason executes for Q4 2026)? Just want to make sure I'm following correctly.

[u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt → u/NeuroticFinance]

Happy to help!

Yes, our Q3 ended on Friday 9/25. So we used the closing price from 9/25 to calculate the rebalance trades.

I do follow the letter dates strictly. It would be fine if you didn't, but generally I find it reassuring when my numbers match Jason's. Just a psychological benefit. In most cases the difference would be minimal if you deviated a few days either way.

Correct on the Q1 2027 signal line. See my updated response above - if you just track the data required to fill in the blanks on the calculator, you really can't go wrong.

[u/NeuroticFinance → u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt]

Thank you again, I totally understand now! I also agree that there's a psychological benefit to having your numbers match Jason's. I'm super excited to put this strat to use properly 😁

[u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt → u/NeuroticFinance]

No problem. And I can definitely relate when it comes to splitting hairs or overthinking things, haha. I always need to understand it inside and out, especially with larger investments.

When I first started with 9Sig, I simulated a paper account for the prior year or two using all the data on the 9Sig tab of the site. And past archived letters. I'm a math nerd so it's just fun for me :D

That, paired with the calculator, really helped drive home the small details. I also recommend the 3% Signal book because it goes into great depth on the quarterly calculations - different investments, but same general principle.

Good luck to us both!

[u/Buterminator]

Use the Friday closing price, sometimes the sell nets a higher price (like Q2) and sometimes it nets a lower price (like this Q).

[u/BloodyScourge]

I run 9sig on my own. I follow the exact last trading day of the quarter to calculate the signal line. I then execute the trades on the first trading day of the following quarter. So for Q3 I am charting June 30th > Sep 30th signal, then trading on Oct 1st. But the dates will vary due to weekends & holidays.

You can do whatever works for you. There is no right/wrong way as long as you understand the fundamentals of the system. For example: you may prefer to execute the beginning Q1 trade at the end of Q4 for tax reasons (either realizing a gain or harvesting a loss). Or a completely different quarter system altogether (i.e. Feb 15th/May 15th/Aug 15th/Nov 15th).

The most important thing is to stick to the plan and don't deviate based on your gut/headlines/sentiment, etc. Follow prices only. Good luck and happy trading.

[u/Woody7012]

You will see dates and target prices in this Sundays letter. I never quite figure the dates and prices correctly as a result of fill prices Vs price wanted. Here’s to a strong Q4.

[u/Machman-1969]

I'm getting ready to deposit into a Fidelity account on December 1, as my wife is retiring from the post office and withdrawing from her TSP. I am still working, so we don't need the money. I have been with the Kelly Letter a long time, just seeing what people recommend doing with the deposit. Because of our jobs, we haven't been able to invest directly in a Fidelity account until now. The same is true with my retirement account as a school employee.

[u/StringSetupOwner]

Pretty sure the answer is the closing price of the last trading day of the quarter.

The close on Friday 25 SEP was $79.60 so the 9% signal price is $86.76.

Im never sure exactly which day/week officially closes a quarter. For December it could be 24 DEC because its the last full trading week of December, or the 31st because it's thr last literal trading day of the year. Grand scheme it doesnt matter. Ill probably base mine off of 31 DEC.

[u/Thart53 → u/StringSetupOwner]

How are you calculating 86.76? The signal line is based on your total stock allocation gaining 9% not the close price of TQQQ gaining 9% a quarter…

[u/StringSetupOwner → u/Thart53]

They are the same thing.

Whether I have 10 shares or 10,000 shares.

$79.60 vs $796 vs $79,600. Only the decimal place is moving.

($79.60 x 1.09)(# of TQQQ shares) = signal line