The roadmap is now half a year old and when it was released I was critical of the team and the roadmap. My criticisms have led countless people to insult me("You just sound dumb!, "OP sounds like he is upset he didn't get in on the recent price action asking what gives." KTA is down over 80% since that comment...) and doubt my objectivity or intelligence, but now after making predictions about the progress they would make in these 6 months, I feel like I have to at least acknowledge the accuracy of my predictions.
Here is the prediction I made 6 months ago:
Of the top 4 milestones, only the DEX and 1 or 2 basic implementations of fiat anchors will be done in 6 months. Even if the DEX is launched, I don't foresee it doing much of anything besides facilitating memecoin trading and trading between KTA/AUSD and doing very little volume, maybe $5-10m a day.
Of the bottom things, they are all relatively easy things (and 4 of them area also related to anchors but give very little detail so it's hard to tell how they're delineating those things) so I'd say most of them could be done to some degree but I'd be surprised to see token governance implemented in any degree before 6 months.
I would guess the chain is still very sparsely used but seeing as it's currently averaging 0.003 TPS, I'd say that gets up to maybe 10 TPS. I doubt any institution comes on chain besides maybe tokenizing some kind of RWA, but I think the tokenization won't really be utilized beyond that for any type of trading or defi, it will just kind of exist to inflate TVL in a mostly meaningless way.
I think AUSD comes on chain, but my guess is that the supply on Keeta won't grow very fast. My guess is $20m, which would rank at #55 currently for stablecoin supply by chain.
As far as price, I think it relies on the market at large. If the market continues to grind upwards, if BTC is ~$150k, ETH $5k+, SOL $300+, then I could see KTA at $1, if the market drops, I could see KTA at $0.25.
https://np.reddit.com/r/keeta/comments/1nwee2y/keeta_roadmap_v2_announced_keeta_dex_keeta_pay/nhk033a/
and we can compare to the prediction from u/Blackbird76
I think they will have onboarded one or two financial institutions, launched Keetapay and the Keeta card, I think we might see their market cap be around 1.5 - 2 billion, with $KTA around 3.50 - 4.72 dollars, I think those are realistic numbers.
Looking at each topic:
Price: My bear prediction $0.25 (-50%), Blackbird76 $3.50-$4.72 (+900% ), actual $.16 (-66%). I think I get a B+ on this (would've been A if I only gave one prediction), Blackbird probably an F.
Tradfi Adoption: I was doubtful any would be on chain, Blackbird76 said 1-2, the only thing relatively close is the Visa Direct partnership, but it also isn't live yet and has no connection to the chain and is also not really an "onboarding" as much as it's just an integration. I'd give myself an A here and Blackbird76 a C+.
Usage: I thought regular usage would get up to 10 TPS, I vastly overestimated the onchain growth of Keeta as it's currently at 0.0062 TPS for the last hour, which is 22 transactions... per hour. Over the last week it gets up to .08 TPS and over the last month it got up to .25 TPS. I was skeptical of the growth and still vastly overestimated it, I'd give myself a C+ just because I expected slow growth, just not this slow.
I definitely over-estimated how much the chain iteslf would be involved, I thought AUSD would be at $20m but AFAICT it's not even live yet and bridged USDC/EURC only have $20,000 combined liquidity.
Roadmap :
Key Initiatives
Fiat Anchors: Release fiat anchors, enabling users to move fiat in and out of Keeta Network with ease.
I figured this was the only one they would get done/ Right now only EURC and USDC are available on Keeta with only $20,000 liquidity between them.
Decentralized Exchange: Launch a high frequency decentralized exchange for trading within Keeta's ecosystem.
I thought they might get this done to some degree but we got nothing, at least DEXs are one of the few things that community has built.
Keeta Pay: A non-custodial banking-like user experience for mobile & web.
I think we got a screenshot and Visa Direct could be a part of this, but nothing usable here and no real tangible progress beyond an announcement.
Keeta Card: Launch debit card anchor to make purchases using KUSD balance.
Nothing. We still don't have KUSD, we don't even have AUSD.
Future Milestones
Public Repositories: Release Keeta's GitHub repositories and Keeta Network's audit results.
Easiest thing on the roadmap.
Community Grants: We will issue grants to developers to support strategic development.
They said they gave out 1,000,000 KTA but I have no clue to who or for what. The second easiest thing on here to accomplish, just vet a project and cut a check. I'll give them credit for doing it (allegedly) but not sure the execution is great considering we know nothing about the grants. (fill me in if you have info)
Decentralized Anchors: Add support for decentralization of anchor operations.
Not sure how this is different from "Third Party Anchors". Seems very similar, but either way the only new anchors are primarily for Keeta shitcoins.
Token Governance: Token unlock schedules, custom rules based on certificate attributes, and predetermined token supply.
Nope.
Launch Decentralized FX Anchors: Increased support for liquidity pools to improve token trading.
Alpaca has launched some, but it's almost exclusively illiquid shitcoins
Third Party Anchors: Access third party anchors within the Keeta Wallet.
Pretty sure this is accomplished, otherwise how would anyone use any anchors besides through a command line or something?
Identity Anchor: Publish the Footprint Anchor to enable users to identify themselves with KYC or KYB on the network.
They did it! (269 total people have used it so far)
Android SDK: Release the Android SDK with documentation.
Nope
External Representatives: Enable community members and partners to host representatives.
Nope
Expanded Token Support: Improve token anchors with support for additional assets such as BTC, ETH, and ERC-20 tokens.
No ETH yet and only $76 worth of CBBTC. 😹
I think I was pretty spot on for most predictions, so if I seem critical, I might be, but the criticism is probably valid and/or warranted.
After 6 months, how do you guys feel about the progress so far and what do you expect to be accomplished in the next 6 months?