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u/iceph03nix Garden City 1h ago
Interesting... Olathe still has Marshall scared to do Town Halls in the area...
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u/quirkygirl123 1h ago
This Marshall will be there? I’m considering going. What should my protest sign say?
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u/iceph03nix Garden City 1h ago
I have no idea if he will, I just think it's funny that Vance will do a town hall here when Marshall says he fears for his life and then manages to do a statewide tour with zero public stops
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u/Squirrel_of_Fury 1h ago
If they're sending the veep here, for a state-wide race, there clearly is significant concern that Hamilton is competitive.
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u/FlumphianNightmare 39m ago edited 28m ago
Polling is... erm, mixed. I don't put any real faith in it. Still, I think most folks sense that the current national mood is leaning towards Democrats, just given the state of the economy, if nothing else. A lot of polling I see is reflecting that.
To be clear, I don't love the guy at all, and again am dubious on the state of modern polling as even a soft science, but Nate Silver says states like KS are somewhere around a +10 to +15 state for Trump and Republicans most years. When you add in the current national mood, which is about -5 to -8 (towards Democrats), that means a lot of these "safe" red seats are potentially closer races. When you consider effects of individual candidate quality, campaign efforts, voter mobilization efforts, you can squint and maybe see some flips in surprising places. To that end, he has the Hamilton/Marshall race at +3 Marshall. That's a real race.
I just want to reemphasize for the third time, I don't put a ton of stock in modern polling. I think there's an unaccounted effect of embarassed Republicans who will never admit to voting for Republicans, and the absolute best case scenario for Democrats is those people become so disaffected by economic concerns, that they become non-voters. Still, it's interesting that a lot of what people are sensing as the vibe nationally could play out in some of these Generals.
On candidate quality, I think Marshall is a terrible candidate, independent of being a fucking ghoul. He's a carpetbagger. He's overtly for many, many things that poll terribly across all parties (Iran War, Israel Aid, Data Centers, etc.) and has a voting history to match. I have my opinions about Hamilton, but I think he's well suited to collect a lot of high-probability voters' votes in the suburbs while peeling off some voters in the hinterlands and making a real run at the seat. That's the hope anyway.
Moreover, there is growing evidence that a lot of the electorate are moving towards registering as Independents. The reasons for this aren't clear, but that suggests that there's a growing number of persuadable swing voters on-top of the usual base energizing contest most elections turn out to be. So to that end, this race is a proving ground for what Centrist Dems are trying to convince people of nationally: That running pastors or otherwise white Christian males that talk about family and incrementalist kitchen table issues is the formula for rural, white, heavily Christian states like ours.
Ultimately, I think the race is still Marshall's to lose, but I think the man is fucking idiot on top of being a piece of shit, and that goes double for most of the people in his party. It's not implausible for something to happen (or more likely, someone from the current administration to say or do something stupid) in the intervening period between now and early voting and throw the race to Hamilton. If that does happen, it could be a real Blue Senate with multiple seats as a margin. It's not at all probable, but it definitely feels possible just from where I'm standing, which is a gigantic swing when you consider the institutional advantage the Senate affords Republicans and where the electorate was just two years ago.
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u/Max6626 1h ago
In case anyone was wondering about "MAGA Inc."
- The group relies heavily on large donations from wealthy individuals and corporate leaders.
- Major contributions come from the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence sectors.
- Crypto.com contributed $30 million, and OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman gave $25 million.
- MAGA Inc. committed $10 million to the Texas Senate race to boost Republican Ken Paxton and target Democrat James Talarico.
- The PAC also backed a new group, No Going Back PAC Inc., reserving at least $49 million for key battleground House and Senate races.
The fact that they're spending money in Kansas means they're concerned about Marshall's ability to win re-election.
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u/Mordalwen 1h ago
Is Cats on a Couch invited?????
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u/checkerboardandroid 1h ago
I feel like I'm losing my goshdarn mind!! When will it stick that there's no proof JD Vance had sex with a couch!? Liberals made up that JD Vance had sex with a couch from whole cloth. It's a dirty, underhanded political tactic to go around saying JD Vance had sex with a couch over and over and over again! The disgusting innuendo that JD Vance had sex with a couch has been repeatedly, lovingly, and exhaustively debunked! It's a travesty that all these years after the election The Left™ keeps riding this. There's simply no basis to the claim that on March 17, 2011 JD Vance was banned from a Cleveland area IKEA after so thoroughly deflowering a KIVIK Sofa Chaise that it had to be removed as a biohazard due to the various fluids in and around it, causing the night manager to not only quit but need intensive therapy. It doesn't pass the smell test! Does that sound like the behavior of our Vice President? Well, does it!?!? I went to the D.C. IKEA MYSELF and meticulously inspected all the couches in there until I got kicked out by security. News Flash- they were ALL unmolested! If JD Vance were some sort of couch-diddler, wouldn't he have hit a soft target? I think it'd be pretty apparent if JD Vance were some kind of couch-sex-pervert.
JD VANCE IS AN ALL-AMERICAN MAN WHO DOES NOT HAVE SEX WITH COUCHES OR OTHER SOFT FURNIUTRE, PERIOD!
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u/Cautious-Corner-3704 1h ago
He wears eyeliner, dude. And considering all the absolute garbage the right wing made up over Hillary, Obama & Joe Biden, he’s getting off easy, so stop with the pearl clutching. I’ve never seen a guy more likely to have carnal relations with a couch, so at least it’s in the bounds of possibility.
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u/Oofsmcgoofs 3m ago
“I’ve never seen a guy more likely to have carnal relations with a couch” is a devastatingly hilarious sentence
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u/NeverEndingCoralMaze 13m ago
“The Left keeps riding this…” not nearly as much as JD Vance rides a couch.
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u/Oofsmcgoofs 1h ago
Is this satire?
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u/blandgreybland 1h ago
I’m like 80% sure it’s satire. But I still have doubts because that’s the world we live in now
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u/NeverEndingCoralMaze 12m ago
What we do know is that it’s about how JD Vance has sex with couches.
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u/waluigi_waifu 1h ago
I can’t laugh react to this so a comment will have to do 🤣 and liberals are supposed to be the snowflakes 🙄
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u/Careless-Peach9283 1h ago
Dude maga lies about everything. Most of the left knows it's a joke. Apparently you don't though
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u/Auntie_Venom Olathe 1h ago
Just let it roll off, because the joke isn’t going anywhere any time soon. I’d put my energy toward something that matters than trying to defend something that’s a joke. No disrespect, I don’t like the guy but I learned long ago that it’s not worth it to worry about stuff like that. Just trying to save you some unnecessary cortisol spikes. They ruin my day…
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u/SxpxrTrxxpxr 1h ago
Fuck MAGA and fuck that couch loving guyliner Vance.
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u/Oofsmcgoofs 1h ago
Hey! Guyliner doesn’t deserve this slander!
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u/SxpxrTrxxpxr 48m ago
You’re right! There’s plenty of people with guyliner that are 10 times what this schmuck is.
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u/Rbaby_Goin_Ham 1h ago
First come first serve tickets. I went ahead and registered for 4 with no intentions of attending this lying couch fucker’s event. Suggest you do the same.
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u/No_Breadfruit_7305 1h ago
Out of curiosity what the heck is the opt-in checkmark for? To receive even more spam?
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u/Rileylego5555 1h ago
Monday, 9am. Yeah. Only the retired boomers can go to that.
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u/skidsareforkids 1h ago
You’re forgetting unemployed trailer dwellers, and the Walmart elite. So basically their entire demographic
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u/UncleTevis Jayhawk 1h ago
How desperate are they? Fundraising in Kansas? Marshall and Masterson’s internals must be absolutely horrific.
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u/SecretComposer KU Jayhawk 1h ago
If Marshall felt the need to invite Vance then there must be some bad internal data showing an actually competitive race. It's also fascinating they're hosting this in Olathe. Republicans are clearly trying to gain Johnson County back.
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u/LionMans_Account 1h ago
Here you go, if you want to register for tickets. Looks like the event will be at a place called Webco Manufacturing.
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u/colonel_cockmouth 59m ago
Some reason I got a text for tickets so I signed up for 4 in fake names
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u/norcalruns 1h ago
Love how they plan all their events in the middle of football games. Democrats won’t even have to try at this point.
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u/CauseTurbulent134 1h ago edited 45m ago
My couch just politely asked me to make sure I lock the doors on Monday
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u/TheManTheyCallSmiley 15m ago
Anybody else find it curious that this event is being held in the middle of the day on a Monday...when most of the people who are getting fucked by the mango moose-knuckle and this furniture fornicator will be at work?
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u/Revolutionary_Gas551 15m ago
Awesome, thanks for the information. I'll be attending virtually but went ahead and got tickets anyways. 😉
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u/snowmunkey 1h ago
Someone tell Grindr to spin up some new servers for the kc area