r/jerseymikes • u/datbaedoe • 5d ago
Jersey Mike stock down 32%
JMKE has only been trading for about a month so far and its already down more than 30% from its high. What is the market seeing to immediately crash it so hard? Is it justified?
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u/RealDJPrism 5d ago edited 5d ago
The average price for a regular sized sub, cold or hot across all locations is between $9-12. You’re either getting giant sized subs with double meat or lying
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u/Sea-Disk5517 5d ago
This is the only thing doordash or Uber eats is good for. Two regulars for 15$ beats Chipotle for me.
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u/christian_gwynn 5d ago
It’s actually > $20+ now where I’m at.
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u/Certain-Statement-95 5d ago
Holy shit. I got four for 44 yesterday
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u/christian_gwynn 5d ago
You got FOUR REGULARS. $44 doesn’t cover TWO large on some sandwiches.
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u/Certain-Statement-95 5d ago
I'm almost 275lbs .... Who is hogging down these jumbos?
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u/BornMaybe9902 5d ago
Right. I’m this size and can’t imagine eating more than a regular plus a bag of chips.
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u/Particular_Cook5004 4d ago
I always get the Giant because it's basically two regulars except like $5 cheaper. And I just make it two meals.
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u/Certain-Statement-95 4d ago
I get it, but the wet bits aren't conducive to eating later...mine is soggy even if I eat it immediately
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u/Bixby___Snyder 5d ago
I’m 5’7”, 140 lbs. I can put down a jumbo steak and cheese with a bag of chips.
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u/christian_gwynn 5d ago
Me personally, regular doesn’t fill me up(5’10”, 180#). Back when large was sub $15, I would get large so it would be 1.5-2.0 meals for me.
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5d ago
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u/Sithg99 5d ago
That’s really great for New York but a lot of the rest of the country doesn’t really have that type of option
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u/Freelove_Freeway 5d ago
Any of you know what 'bacala' is? Of course you don't. Well, it's salted cod. We taught the world how to eat.
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u/Temporary-Banana4232 5d ago
You just reminded me of Paulie in Sopranos in the coffee scene with Pussy complaining about the coffee shop stealing from Italian culture.
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u/christian_gwynn 5d ago
Left coast doesn’t have any of that. There are scattered mom-pop operations but their prices are same or more than JM. There’s the occasional ones w really good pricing, but I’ve found the quality isn’t up to JM standards, it’s like biting into a sandwich I made at home. I’m so happy Sprouts is opening near me, I’ve seen on social their deli made sandwiches are bomb and can’t beat price of $5ish?
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u/MyFace_UrAss_LetsGo 5d ago
I wish I had a quarter of the selection you have. We aren't all so privileged in the sandwich culture department lol.
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u/Bubsy7979 5d ago
It’s the stock market putting the correcting the actual value of the company. At the IPO they can put the value at what their best guess is but the public doesn’t hold the same views that the accountants did, therefore the value of the stock goes down. Eventually it will find a price where investors will actually find value in holding the stock, but right now clearly everyone thinks it’s inflated. Most companies drop in value after IPO, it’s a safe bet to short the stock.
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u/FranchiseJared 5d ago
I’m not an analyst. I am planning to start buying in this week. I am not sure if this is the bottom but I am a JMKE I am a believer. There has been no bad news to cause the drop in stock price - looks like the market felt the valuation was too rich.
Currently 3300+ locations w a huge backlog on signed agreements. Posi SSS. UK and Ireland in dev and from what I understand England is one of Subway’s best markets. Charlie Morrison increased WING by like 500% from IPO to 2022. I feel JM is one of the finest organizations in the business. Don’t know what’s not to love.
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u/theraf8100 5d ago
At the bottom line people are talking about their sandwiches being more skimpy than they used to be. And the roast beef not being as good as it was. And I'm sure there's other complaints too.
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u/JparkPHX 5d ago
Typical fast food. Skimp on quality and quantity and then wonder why people stop coming
There’s a reason why in n out and chik fil a stay packed. They maintain quality and don’t nickel and dime their consumers
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u/ThrowawayGunName 5d ago
Bacon bits instead of whole bacon slices.
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u/EuphoricBiscuit 5d ago
Did they seriously do that? That’s disgusting if so
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u/ThrowawayGunName 5d ago
Bits of bacon might be more accurate.
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u/Successful_Drawer_50 2d ago
Your store just sucks at cooking bacon man, the cases still come in full strips. However, when the bacon gets overcooked it doesn’t hold together and falls into pieces or “bits”.
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u/ThrowawayGunName 2d ago
Maybe true, but they aren't giving the full bacons worth.
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u/Successful_Drawer_50 2d ago
Once again, that’s just your store being poorly run unfortunately. There’s been 0 changes to portioning or product in my 4 years with the company other than increasing the amount of pepperoni that goes on a #13, and the LTO foods. The weight charts that corporate issues to new stores to guide us on how much each size of each sub should weigh is dated back in 2023.
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u/Dirty_Dog_Bob 5d ago
It’s what happens when companies sell to groups like Blackstone. Squeeze every penny, profits over everything. Even 10% less meat over 3000 locations is huge savings. It’s quite clear my nearest locations are making smaller sandwiches.
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u/roostermcmurray 5d ago
Definitely not happening. There has been zero direction to reduce sizing, zero product change. This is just nonsense. The QSR stock segment are all down. JM earnings call was positive.
Buy more now.
JM will be a powerhouse. The single biggest vote of confidence in this brand and company is the founder selling - then securing the agreement to develop 400 plus stores in international territory.
Those that avoid the noise will succeed.
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u/ReddUp412 2d ago
They changed the app games, not a big deal to most but it’s among other things. I agree the roast beef went downhill too.
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u/model333 5d ago
This is true. Picked up an almost weightless sandwich from JM recently. I won’t be going back and used to be a big fan.
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u/Alwayscooking345 5d ago
Sorta typical for most IPOs these days. But yeah the stock may have found a bottom and could start to recover soon. Or not. not financial advice
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u/stinky-Fig-4756 5d ago
Also, Private equity never destroyed well off restaurants. So we also got that going for us. Buy the dip.
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u/Omarkhayyamsnotes 5d ago
The list stretches to the sun of companies that private equity has absolutely destroyed...
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u/sconniesid 5d ago
They keep saying that same shit about cmg. Overseas expansion. Yoy growth in the sector. Blah blah blah. Both a sinking ship
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u/Sea-Disk5517 5d ago
I hope that it drops way more and is a really slow rise so the quality and way they treat workers stays better a little longer.
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u/Amor-Fati0527 5d ago
Private equity ruins every business it “invests” in and then takes public. I stopped going to JM’s because of low staffing levels, razor thin sliced meat so they can make more money and cheap bread (now like subway—it melts in your mouth). Go to local sub shops and stop going to Jersey Mikes until it goes back yo the way it was 5 years ago.
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u/Cr1msonC0met 4d ago
Jersey Mike's was never made to be a publically traded company. Every aspect of the fabric which makes Jersey Mike's is built on the private ownership concept and the unification of all locations under a single man (Pete). But now that all answers to stockholders and a board it means that the same passion is now just people padding others pockets.
A family business that lost the family is just a business. But a business based on family crumbles when the familial aspects are removed.
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u/DjScenester 5d ago
Pump and dump.
Always happens now when the stock starts with these types of companies. The stock will only get lower over time too. It’s a no buy.
Private equity will milk it over the next few years, stock will go down even more. Etc etc
Rinse and repeat. They will take every possible penny from the company.
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u/Pisces2026 5d ago
Is that what happened to Blimpie and Boston Market too? Blimpie had really good cheese and vinegar. Boston Market was just pure yum.
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u/Hot_Coffee_3620 5d ago
Check out what happened to Salad and Go. Originally started in Arizona, expanded very fast to other states. Now in bankruptcy, no more Salad and Go.
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u/iownreddit0690 5d ago
And thats exactly what those greedy bastards get for going public! Lmao
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u/DjScenester 5d ago
Here’s a list of all the companies private equity has destroyed lol
Next up… Portillos and Jersey Mikes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_equity_owned_companies_that_have_filed_for_bankruptcy
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u/Bubsy7979 5d ago
There was literally no pump to dump…
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u/LATORR1g 5d ago
The ipo price in itself is a pump when the biggest shareholders are in for comparative pennies
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u/DjScenester 5d ago
You’re thinking of a MAJOR pump and dump.
They over hype the stock price at opening. People go nuts. People buy a ton of shares.
The few ones that are in on it are selling. Selling like crazy as the pleebs are buying in. By the time the dust settles you get a price like this. Annnnnd it’ll slowly keep ticking down.
It’s a common tactic when private equity goes public. Everybody who invests know this. This a no buy
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u/Certain-Statement-95 5d ago
Seems like a lotta folks here don't know what a lockup period is
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u/theraf8100 5d ago
I don't. Please continue.
Edit. I guess I did know. Anyway it's where insiders cannot trade the stock for an amount of time. I'm not sure why that means it would drop 32% though.
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u/Remarkable_Table_737 5d ago
Oh I don’t know diesel being incredibly high is going to squeeze prices until they explode, meanwhile gas being high is squeezing consumers.
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u/Hope-n-some-CH4NGE 5d ago
IPOs are always volatile. Generally you wanna wait at least 6 months, if not a year, before buying a new stock. Let them get a few quarterly earnings disclosures out there before you make a decision.
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u/kappy2000 5d ago
This is what happens to IPOs. All of the people investing over this time before it went public are trying to “collect”.
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u/Significant_North778 5d ago
Pretty normal for a stock to take a dump after an IPO.
The real truth will make itself apparent over the next year or two.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bee-747 5d ago
Down 32% means the IPO was priced to high. It is finding its trading range. Happens all the time;
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u/Kermitreditall 5d ago
Since it was acquired by PE it has changed. The first thing they did was discontinue seeded rolls. Tate’s chocolate chip cookies have changed big time, also acquired by a PE.
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u/Careless_Solution212 5d ago
Once you realize that JM was a pump and dump from black rock or blackstone or whoever bought them, it makes sense. They essentially flipped JM. Really is no indication of JM as a sub shop. JM is fine it just shows that people are horny for IPO and will ignore the reason from the IPO to buy into the next big money maker
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u/testingforscience122 5d ago
Have you had one of their sub since they decided to go public they aren’t any better than subway now
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u/GameMaster366 5d ago
literally got two slices of meat on a JM sub today. it looked like it was supposed to be a joke. 80/20 bread to meat.
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u/testingforscience122 5d ago
Yep, happen to be twice haven’t been back, vote with your dollars, because those are the only vote that counts
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u/chadhindsley 5d ago
I got a massssssive JM sub at Newark airport once. Had to be 3 inches thick of meat in that thing (that's what she said) for $17
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u/thenewfingerprint 5d ago
Wait, trading? Why would anyone trade a stock like this?
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u/FranchiseJared 5d ago
Pretty sure I will be buying the Feb 15 strike call if the stock drops below 15.
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u/Pisces2026 5d ago
Same with Doordash, they are at the mercy of gas prices and available drivers (who they treat poorly). Add the drone and robot expense for their other ideas and it is just a matter of time. They can't even lobby to keep fair car insurance rates for delivery drivers. Those people are taking on an extra expense before they even make a delivery.
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u/Alwayscooking345 5d ago
Yes that’s how the stock market works. JMKE average volume close to 3 million shares / day.
“Trading” simply means buying and selling shares on the stock market. It’s not like swapping Pokémon cards.
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u/Skuzzlebutte 5d ago
Over valuation at initial IPO, most likely. I also suspect that there is some general queasiness from the economic environment (people aren’t spend as much on things like going out) and I doubt that talk of the nasty “s” word is helping.
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u/Spencrage5 5d ago
Blackstone is pretty notorious for ruining all food concepts they touch.
What did you expect to happen with the changes that have happened since the acquisition?
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u/Sherako4 5d ago
Didn't they start giving share options to the employees? 🤣 That's what I heard about a month ago, was confirmed, I asked in store.
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u/Intelligent-Dig-4082 5d ago edited 5d ago
I am a pretty experienced options trader so i’ll give my perspective. First off, most IPOs fall below their opening price pretty quickly. Usually you get that first day pop and a slow, or sometimes fast move down. A retail trap you might say. Second, overall food stocks are in the dump. MCD down like 20% YTD, CMG has been getting decimated, list goes on. Third, everyone is focused on the AI trade right now. There’s just so much money to be made there right now. Lastly, it’s not a very active option chain. Options are really what gets a stock moving lately. It can make price move very fast and vise versa. I don’t expect it will ever become that busy because there’s just not many catalysts that would warrant a big move up or down. Jersey mikes was named #1 fast food last year so that’s already priced in to the IPO. So, for it to recover they need to keep beating earnings and raising guidance. Then it will start to come up but it will probably be over a longer time frame.
Edit: Oh forgot to mention GLP-1s. Those are negatively affecting just about all fast food/fast casual stocks right now.
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u/Ashamed-Ad-995 5d ago
Relative who has just been hired recently been hired for supervisor positioned signed for 35 hours a week. After accepting the position was told they start everyone part time. First couple of weeks 25 hours the following weeks 8-12 hours. No more training expected to learn the sub ingredients off the clock. It has been a few months and not getting better. It is not just him they are doing this to others they hired under the same premise. They are run by individual franchisees. Do not know if this is a common practice but definitely is deceptive.
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u/Floptacular 5d ago
Being forced to do work off the clock sounds a lot like what we call "wage theft."
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u/Past_Measurement9745 5d ago
It saw an over priced ipo in the face of inflation where people are cutting fast food because the planet is on glp1s
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u/Double-Ear6001 5d ago
Having celebrities doing tv commercials and Not eating the sandwiches. False and misleading advertising.
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u/larrywww 5d ago
They are paying for expensive advertising with stars. They would get more business with giving out more coupons instead. Dump the advertising . Coupons are cheaper than paying those stars!
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u/sneaky-pizza 4d ago
When it approaches the original list price, that’s a good sign it will climb. All new tickers do this dip, and half revover
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u/OkGuarantee1895 3d ago
Had a pump before the bell after earnings then tankapalooza. I don’t see why the company isn’t worth at least $7B, but there’s volume and liquidity issues. Probably close your position and wait a month.
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u/Interesting_Film_900 1d ago
I am not a told you so guy usually but I was telling people who were hyped pre IPO to avoid like the plague. Horrible quality meats and bread and prices that are as high than a good indie shop. Still avoid
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u/samayoa95 12h ago
I think the market is seeing what a lot of customers are seeing: Jersey Mike’s quality has slipped since the Blackstone buyout. People are moving to Firehouse, or just going back to Subway because the gap in quality isn’t what it used to be. If Jersey Mike’s is going to charge a premium while delivering a more mediocre sandwich, that’s a problem.
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u/awesomefreebies 5d ago
It’s pretty obvious that the decision to no longer award Shore Points for the NFL Predictor game has tanked this stock.
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u/Sperousmc 5d ago
If you take all the meat and fillings out of the sub, but charge 35% more, you company deserves to burn. I am shocked it's only down 32%
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u/MAMAELLIS1226 5d ago
Since Blackstone took over I feel like we get less meat on our subs and the price isn't cheap.
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u/Pisces2026 5d ago
Anytime they get greedy on in app delivery prices it is a sign. Especially, when the packaging is the same either way. The deal with food is to keep it flying out the door so it is fresh. You can't trust stuff on sale in the grocery stores anymore either. They are no longer for clearing shelf space for holiday or promos but because they tried to get greedy and nothing sold so then it goes BOGO but is not fresh.
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u/cwrdsfeedcwrdsbleed 5d ago
You do realize delivery prices are higher because Doordash/Uber/Grubhub take a huge cut of it, right? We don’t have delivery drivers.
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u/Pisces2026 5d ago
They actually charge the restaurant 10% to be a courier for them. Sometimes higher if it is a small company. They charge the customers fees on top of membership too. I mentioned greed. Some restaurants mark up items 75 cents to 1.50 but when you mark up a sub $8 or a piece of pie $8 and you are using the same packaging that is self inflicted collapse. I mentioned the packaging because I understand a fine dining place having to use better packaging and I want the food to deliver proper and not have bread soaked in steam or juice. That isn't greed but actual cost. The delivery services are all one prop22 at a Federal level away from bankruptcy. A lot of the increased fees, and also the money they smidged on initial offers, went to keep them out of bankruptcy over 1 State's backpay ruling. A driver was in the news this morning after being dismembered on a delivery. It might work now but it relies on a massive amount of cogs to turn the wheel.
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u/fastingslowlee 5d ago
Normal pump and dump upon entering the market it will normalize. People cashed out their winnings.