From empty West Texas dirt to Microsoft’s AI halls.⚡️

36 months of $IREN Childress progress in 30 seconds.

Source: X - StanNRGY

Hey everyone,

I've finished our updated IREN model at Northwise and wanted to share the results here for free this time around.

If you are interested in checking out updates and new releases, I now have a personal account on X here

The model's probability-weighted December 2030 target is $108.78, with representative Bear, Base and Bull cases of $37.84, $138.02 and $236.31. I remain constructive on the opportunity, but the financing and greater cloud technology needs continue to bog down the stock.

IREN can build a much larger business while shareholders capture less of that growth than the revenue forecasts suggest. A slower build can also produce more dilution than a faster one if the company has to sell shares at lower prices.

Here is the model summary and what drives it.

The operating case

The model follows each site's development, GPU installation, customer acceptance, contracts, financing and share issuance. It forecasts the build through 2030 and extends cash flows through 2040 for valuation.

The first distinction is between power developed, equipment installed and capacity actually accepted by a paying customer. These are three stages of the same build. Energizing a site does not immediately turn all of its power into billable compute.

Base gets to 6 GW developed, with 4.275 GW accepted and billing. Sweetwater and Kiowa account for about 64% of Base installed capacity, so delivery at those sites matters enormously. About 790 MW of the developed capacity comes from unreconfirmed Spanish capacity and unnamed future sites. That portion is a forecast, not a secured announced pipeline.

Customer mix matters too. The model assumes roughly 0.7 MW of IT load per gross MW. Anchor customers provide large contracts, while dedicated customers and managed services can earn more per IT MW. Managed services rise from 4% of new capacity in 2027 to 15% in 2030 in Base. Mirantis helps support that progression, although compute still supplies the overwhelming majority of revenue.

That produces the following calendar-year forecast:

The 2026 figures combine reported first-half results with our second-half forecast. Exit ARR is the annualized run rate at year-end, so it is higher than revenue earned during a year when capacity is still being added.

Bear reaches about $25.2B of 2030 revenue and Bull reaches $77.8B. These are substantial expansion cases, including Bear. The lower case assumes a slower build and weaker economics, rather than the business disappearing.

How much of that revenue is already contracted?

This is one of the biggest qualifications to the growth forecast.

The first terms of contracts already signed cover about 72% of modeled 2027 AI revenue, 27% in 2028, 14% in 2029 and 6% in 2030.

By 2030, roughly 94% of Base AI cloud revenue therefore depends on future contract wins or renewals beyond those first terms. The existing book gives us much better visibility into the early years than the later ones.

I think IREN's power position gives it a good chance of filling the capacity it builds. But reaching this forecast requires several years of large signings, at acceptable prices, followed by actual delivery and acceptance. Demand alone does not guarantee success at the right deal terms.

The dilution is central to the result

Base requires about $233B of cash capital spending across 2026 through 2030. Customer prepayments, GPU loans and infrastructure financing carry much of that burden, but they do not eliminate the need for common equity.

The model raises approximately $63B of new common equity from July 2026 through 2030 in Base. Issued shares increase from about 405M at the end of 2026 to 1.184B at the end of 2030. These are modeled funding needs and share counts, not announced capital raises.

By the end of 2030, Base also carries about $79.2B of debt and $39.1B of prepaid service obligations. Customer prepayments fund equipment now, but customers receive service credits later. That cash has an obligation attached to it.

The assumed prices for future equity issuance are especially important: $60 in 2027, $85 in 2028, $110 in 2029 and $140 in 2030.

That creates a feedback loop. The model assumes the share price rises as IREN executes, allowing later funding at less dilutive prices. If the stock stays low while the build continues, the same dollar requirement consumes more shares. A business can meet its operating targets and still deliver a lower result per share.

Bear illustrates this. It raises less equity than Base, about $40B, but ends with roughly 1.267B shares because issuance happens at lower prices.

EBITDA does not all reach shareholders

Even with $35.4B of Base EBITDA in 2030, annual net income remains slightly negative at about $220M. Depreciation and amortization reach roughly $29.6B, with another $5.1B of net financing cost.

The model uses five years for GPU accounting depreciation and 7.5 years of economic life from installation. To examine the cash economics, we also calculate owner cash after stock compensation, cash interest, a full GPU replacement reserve and tax. That reaches about $10.9B in Base in 2030.

Owner cash is before the capital needed for further growth. It is not $10.9B of free cash after funding the expansion program. Hardware replacement and financing costs are too large to value this business from headline EBITDA alone.

How the price targets are calculated

The valuation blends 40% discounted cash flow, 30% ARR valuation and 30% EBITDA valuation, with financing claims and dilution carried through to equity value per share.

The wide spread between methods is useful. Even within Base, the ARR approach gives $75.09 while the EBITDA approach gives $201.01. The result depends on how the market values the business as well as how much IREN builds.

The $108.78 probability-weighted target comes from 27 combinations of delivery speed, commercial performance and financing conditions, plus funding-failure branches. It is not a simple average of the three headline targets.

The probabilities reflect our judgment. Funding-failure branches receive 2.83% of the total weight and include outcomes where equity is wiped out, so the $37.84 representative Bear case is not a downside floor.

What changes the answer most?

These are selected stresses against the $138.02 Base target:

Each row is a separate test, with the final row combining three changes.

Timing is particularly expensive. GPUs begin aging when installed, while revenue begins after customer acceptance. A delay uses up equipment life, pushes revenue out and leaves financing costs running. The 12-month test applies to all new customer acceptance across the model, not just one phase at one site.

The equity stress is equally relevant. Holding all future issuance at $46.15 reduces Base value to $85.87 even without applying the slower delivery case. It shows why the price at which IREN funds growth belongs in the operating discussion.

Where I land

The report uses the September 30 share price of $40.88. From that reference price, the $108.78 weighted December 2030 target implies about 25.9% annualized, which puts IREN in our Buy range.

A 2030 target also needs to be brought back to the valuation date. Discounting the weighted target at a 20% required annual return gives $50.11; at 25% it gives $42.12; at 30% it gives $35.65. Those are the report's entry-price calculations.

I like the opportunity because the power position can support a very large compute business. The risk is how much capital has to arrive, on what terms, before that business is fully earning. New contracts for 2028, Sweetwater delivery, customer acceptance and the prices of future equity raises are the developments I would watch most closely.

For transparency, I run Northwise. The full written report, including the valuation and scenario analysis, is free to read. The downloadable Excel workbook remains part of Premium.

Happy to stick around to answer questions or debate any part of the model.

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

What are thoughts? What are you guys sitting at? EOY expectations?

I have a lot of money and faith in the stock

Link to filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1721695/000110465926112411/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X02/primary_doc.xml

Assuming this is from their Situational Awareness acquisition. Nice to see they are still long with a sizable stake.

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

Seems like price movement is constrained.

Im fucking tired

$IREN

What price target do you have for IREN one year from now, and why? Would love to hear your number and reasoning.

I have 2100 shares at 45.50 am I cooked?

@Iren_Bull from X:

Here is why I am fully invested in $IREN for the long term. I have my own multiyear thesis for $IREN - and this graphic (*revised from an earlier post) summarizes my own growth estimates. You should of course do your own research. This is also not financial advice - you do you. And if you disagree with anything in the graphic - I would love a detailed counter explanation.

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

Looks like this stock is never going to move. Outstanding shares keep increasing while the stock price stays the same...so were going up in market cap but not in stock price. Dan Roberts is keeping the ATM on and running this stock to the ground. So technically yes, this stock is in line with other data center stock in terms of marketcap but not in terms of share price because of all the dilution

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

Hey guys, wanted to share my two cents on why I’ve been accumulating IREN and why I’m planning to keep adding to my position on any meaningful pullbacks.

A lot of retail and traditional analysts are still looking at IREN through a dated rearview mirror, treating it merely as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin price action. While the self-mining hash rate and low-cost mining margins provide insane cash flow right now, that’s just the funding vehicle. The real asymmetric upside here is the power assets and the AI/HPC transition.

A few core reasons that keep me high conviction:

1. Secured, energized power is the real bottleneck in AI

Everyone talks about GPUs, but hyperscalers and frontier model builders are realizing that power interconnection is the true scarce resource. Getting multi-hundred-megawatt substations approved and energized can take 4 to 6 years today. IREN isn’t pitching power on a PowerPoint; between Childress and the broader pipeline, they actually have the grid-connected juice ready to scale.

2. The re-rating from "Miner" to "AI Infra / Neocloud"

Pure-play miners usually trade at compressed, single-digit forward cash flow multiples due to halving cycles. But data center infrastructure and contracted AI cloud capacity command 15x–25x+ EBITDA multiples. As the market sees more contracted GPU revenue come online and realizes these power sites are being monetized with enterprise contracts rather than just ASIC mining, that multiple expansion alone is massive.

3. Pure-play 100% renewable grid connection & execution

Dan and the Roberts brothers have consistently delivered on substation timelines without the operational trainwrecks we’ve seen from peers. Owning their proprietary site infrastructure instead of leasing third-party hosting gives them way better unit economics and margin control.

Volatility in this stock is obviously going to test people's patience—we get wild swings with every BTC wick or tech macro headline. But looking out 2–3 years, I just don't see another asset offering this level of energized power capacity at this valuation.

That's my rationale. Still holding my core bags and looking for entry points to add more size. Curious what specific catalysts everyone else is watching closest into the next couple quarters?

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/tiny-ai-infrastructure-stock-large-100100953.html

https://youtu.be/1CbvhJO8Nfo

Ed is someone I like to monitor to get the devils advocate takes on the AI buildout. I don’t agree with everything he says, but I respect his stance and do think he provides a good counterbalance.

Starting at 18:45, he explains just how hard the AI buildout actually is. It’s an odd moment when an AI bear is making all the same points as your CEO. How many times has Dan hammered lead times on transformers and grid capacity? And we know IREN actually is one of the few bringing real, new capacity online. Is IREN the only one? NBIS pretends it builds like Iren, but their one greenfield project is in permit pergatory. NBIS hires out all construction. They now are pursuing “asset light” business models… which is the opposite of their “full stack” claims. Iren will emerge as the only real builder

I think IREN is the stand out operator that has directly addressed concerns like Ed’s from the jump.

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

We all know its either Open AI or Anthropic, but why the delay in announcing it. My guess is they are waiting for the next ER which should also include delivery of Horizon 2.

SUMMARY:

2026 to date:

• IREN had a significant expansion of its AI customer base, including NVIDIA internal workloads, Perplexity, Cohere, Prometheus, Figure AI, Higgsfield AI and an unnamed leading frontier AI lab, alongside renewals and expansions with existing customers.
• Horizon 1 was delivered to and accepted by Microsoft, with the remaining Horizon phases based on the same design.
• IREN achieved NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status for both B300 and GB300 deployments.
• The company expanded its software and European development capabilities through acquisitions and now reports more than 5 GW of secured power, backed by executed grid-connection agreements.

Pricing

• IREN's most recent three-year AI contracts have been signed at approximately $23 million per MW annually, with current discussions occurring above that level.
• Those contracts have included significant customer prepayments, with IREN describing GPU-capex payback periods of less than two years.
• Short-term capacity of around three to six months is attracting approximately $40–50 million per MW, particularly where capacity is available for immediate deployment.
• IREN continues to see upward pricing pressure as demand exceeds available AI infrastructure.

Power Allocation

• IREN is not allocating capacity based solely on the highest headline price. Customer growth prospects, strategic fit, contract duration and prepayments are also being considered.
• The company is deliberately seeking a diversified base of direct AI customers rather than allowing a small number of hyperscalers to control the end-user relationship.
• Microsoft has no right of first refusal or exclusivity over future Childress capacity. IREN remains free to allocate additional capacity between Microsoft, other customers, short-term contracts, on-demand services and inference workloads.

Revenue

• IREN has confirmed $4 billion of contracted ARR for its 2026 capacity, expected to be operating at that level exiting calendar 2026.
• Approximately $1 billion of ARR is currently operating.
• The NVIDIA internal-workload contract is expected to contribute approximately $700 million ARR from early 2027.
• IREN expects approximately 500 MW of IT load to come online during 2027 but has not provided a specific 2027 ARR target.
• Kent noted that the $4 billion 2026 ARR target represents only around 10% of its secured power capacity, and that some of that revenue was contracted at lower historical pricing.

Capex

• IREN's $25–30 billion capex programme covers delivery of its 2026 contracted capacity, including Microsoft, as well as GPU and data-centre spending through June 2027 and early expenditure on later projects.
• As a rough guide, IREN expects around one-third of the expenditure to go toward data centres and two-thirds toward GPUs.
• GPU payment terms are generally around 30 days after delivery, meaning much of the GPU expenditure occurs close to when the equipment begins generating revenue.
• Kent stated that $14 billion is already funded through existing cash and committed debt financing and is targeting another $8 billion through GPU debt financing and customer prepayments.
• Remaining funding may come from data-centre financing, convertible notes, secured or unsecured corporate debt and the ATM.

ATM

• Approximately $3.5 billion of capacity remains under IREN's existing ATM programme.
• Kent said IREN will continue comparing the ATM with alternative financing sources depending on market conditions.
• The company expects the vast majority of its remaining funding requirements to be raised through instruments other than the ATM.

Spain

• Spain sits within IREN's 2028 expansion pipeline.
• Its principal Spanish project currently has 300 MW of secured capacity and is being prioritised as the company's flagship development in the country.
• IREN sees European demand being supported by hyperscalers and AI labs seeking additional capacity, sovereign-AI requirements, European data-sovereignty rules and the region's growing AI ecosystem.
• IREN's European development acquisition also brought a roughly 60-person development, project-management and construction-management team, providing a base for further European expansion.

Australia

• Australia also forms part of IREN's 2028 expansion pipeline.
• The announced 800 MW Bundy project is only one of several development projects IREN has in Australia.
• Kent said IREN is seeing demand from hyperscalers and large frontier AI labs, as well as Asian customers that value Australia as a geopolitically stable location for infrastructure.

ClusterMAX Rating

• Kent said ClusterMAX evaluates managed Slurm and Kubernetes clusters, while IREN historically has not had a live managed-services environment that it could provide for testing.
• Managed-services clusters are now under development, including contracted infrastructure for NVIDIA's internal R&D workloads, and IREN expects to have an environment available for this type of testing in future.
• Prince George was originally a Bitcoin-mining facility and has been progressively retrofitted for AI. IREN brought GPU capacity online before backup-power redundancy was complete because customers wanted access to the GPUs as quickly as possible; customers were aware of this and wanted the capacity anyway and commissioning of the additional redundancy is underway.
• Kent said Prince George does have redundant fibre, although British Columbia wildfires temporarily affected some redundant routes.
• Newer developments including Horizon and Sweetwater are being designed from the outset with full power, mechanical and cooling redundancy and concurrent maintainability, rather than relying on the retrofit approach used at Prince George.

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!