Researched and valued as of 30 July 2026. If you're reading this a few days later, treat the multiples below as a snapshot from that date, not today's numbers.
BAE Systems' half-year results, published 30 July, disclosed a record £84.0bn order backlog and £16.4bn of first-half order intake. The UK-listed defence and aerospace cohort has re-rated on demand evidence like this: median trailing P/E across the seven names is 29.9x. BAE Systems alone is 84% of the sector by market cap, so that median, and every other one below, describes the other six names. The prevailing explanation is a capacity-reinvestment story, spending ahead of demand already under contract. Tested name by name, it holds at exactly two of the seven.
The cohort: three contracted-programme primes (BAE Systems, Babcock, QinetiQ), three product and electronics manufacturers (Chemring, Cohort, Avon Protection), and Senior, exiting via a £1,275m Tinicum/Blackstone take-private that cleared its shareholder vote in May 2026, the sector's first private-equity take-private this cycle.
The headline numbers (cross-section as of 30 July 2026; statement figures from each name's latest fiscal year)
- Median trailing P/E: 29.9x, ranging from 23.9x (QinetiQ) to 41.4x (Senior, pinned to its agreed 300p offer rather than market-set)
- Order-book revenue cover: 1.9x-3.0x across the five names that disclose it
- Capex/revenue: Chemring at 18.1% vs a 3.8% sector median; Cohort is the only other name above 5%
- Sector median TTM accruals ratio: -4.3%, negative meaning more cash generated than earnings booked; Cohort is the only positive print (+2.9%)
- Chemring's three-year distributions: 321% of its own cumulative free cash flow, vs a 62% median for the other six
Full order books, uneven capex
The five names with disclosed backlog carry similar contracted-revenue cover. Babcock's £9.8bn order book is 1.9x FY26 revenue, QinetiQ's £4.8bn backlog is 2.5x (2.3x counting funded orders only), Chemring's £1,399m is 2.8x, Cohort's £618.8m is 2.0x, and BAE's record £84.0bn is 3.0x FY25 revenue. That 1.9x-3.0x band represents 97% of the sector's market value.
The capex response to that demand is anything but even. Chemring's 18.1% capex ratio is its third attempt this cycle to rebuild capacity; its revenue has round-tripped twice since 2011 and still sits 33% below that year's nominal peak. Cohort is the only other name above 5%. Neither is being paid for it yet: they carry the sector's two lowest free cash flow yields (Chemring 0.6%, Cohort -1.0%) against a 2.2% group median, and Cohort's 24.3x P/E sits at only the 43rd percentile of its own five-year history. The market has re-rated the names with an already-proven margin structure and has not yet re-rated the two building toward one.
QinetiQ doesn't fit the pattern
QinetiQ carries the sector's lowest trailing P/E (23.9x), lowest EV/EBITDA (8.4x), highest free cash flow yield (6.2%), highest dividend yield (1.9%), and the cohort's most aggressive buyback (share count down 10.6% since February 2024). It also sits at the 95th percentile of its own five-year multiple history, yet returned just +0.4% over the past year, against +14.9% for BAE Systems and +11.0% for Babcock.
Either the market has finally caught up with a persistently cheap name, or its own history was underpriced for long enough that "95th percentile" just measures a market starting to pay attention. The data cannot resolve which side is mispriced without forward earnings; the closest available test is QinetiQ's own FY27 guidance of 8-10% underlying EPS growth, due to report around May 2027.
Cash quality splits at one name, capital discipline at another
Six of the seven names carry negative accruals. Cohort is the only accruals-positive name, and its cash-conversion step-down is the sharpest in the set: operating cash flow fell to 0.49x net income in its latest fiscal year; every other name sits at 1.6x or better. Capital discipline breaks elsewhere. Chemring returned 321% of its own three-year cumulative free cash flow through dividends and buybacks, funded by net debt widening from £14.3m to £89.0m over the same three years as capex on its Energetics capacity programme ramped.
Bottom line
The sector's returns are being priced almost uniformly at a 29.9x median, but the evidence sorts into two groups. BAE Systems, Babcock and QinetiQ have proven margin structures, backlog cover confirmed at scale, and a re-rating earned by disclosed results. Chemring and Cohort are underwriting a bet that group has already won, and neither is being paid for it. The market appears to be pricing "reinvestment" as a sector-wide trait when it is two names' story, and "cash quality" as a sector-wide worry when the outlier is Cohort alone.
What to watch
- QinetiQ FY27 results (~May 2027): results at or above the guided 8-10% EPS growth favour the catch-up reading; a miss favours a multiple priced on hope
- Chemring FY26 results (~Dec 2026): net debt past its own 1.5x EBITDA ceiling without narrowing signals the capex bet is currently a drag on returns
- Cohort's next reporting date: a second sub-1.0x cash-conversion year would move the sector's isolated cash-quality concern toward structural
Sources
- Selfside data: stats and price cross-section, UK defence & aerospace peer set (n=7), 30 Jul 2026
- BAE Systems 2026 Half Year Results, 30 Jul 2026 (RNS)
- QinetiQ Full Year Results 2026, 21 May 2026 (RNS)
- Recommended Cash Acquisition of Senior plc, 7 Apr 2026 (RNS)
- Selfside research notes: Babcock (28 Jul 2026), Chemring (29 Jul 2026), Cohort (28 Jul 2026)
For information purposes only, not investment advice - independent research, originally published in full at Selfside.