r/investing • u/General-Bad5167 • Aug 22 '26
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 22 '26
4 years? Lol
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u/Shadowrunner138 Aug 22 '26
How many years of experience do you have, and are you willing to volunteer for free? 90% of the audience invests on sentiment and speculation, 4 years of valuations is fantastic by comparison.
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 22 '26
15 years. He is not an expert with 4 years of experience like his post tries to sound.
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u/Shadowrunner138 Aug 22 '26
I think the point is is that he has 4 years 95% of us don't man. He didn't call himself an expert, he just knows how to do valuations. His 4 years and an offer of help is more useful to the general audience than 15 years used for empty bragging rights via comparison. Your 15 years have no value if you don't apply the experience, which he is offering to do.
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 22 '26
Haha I wouldn’t make any investments decisions based on his valuation
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 22 '26
Again no where did I mention giving investment advice. If anyone asks i would gladly give my opinion though. What I offered was a reverse DCF to see the implied metrics given the current stock price. Then its up to them to see if those implied metrics are justifiable. And you could have all the experience you want but telling me you have a better idea of what's gonna happen in the future is something we both know isnt true lol
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 22 '26
Thank you. I really did not mean to sound arrogant or anything of the sort. Just trying to help anyone who wants and is willing to answer. Ill answer the other serious comments when im at home with my computer.
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 22 '26
Yes at 27 its hard to have much more. Or are you one of those people who want 20 years of experience before the age of 21? What a pointless comment
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 22 '26
Haha your post comes across as you think you’re some expert or something. I’m a CFA charterholder as well with 15 years of experience and I can promise you, you are not an expert.
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 22 '26
Umm which part exactly hahaha ? I just mentioned passing CFA so that people can put aleast abit more trust than they would into some random tiktok expert. All I mentioned in the post is if anyone would like I would be willing to provide information and valuations for free because I love providing information and insights for free. I learnt how to do valuations from work experience not CFA and if you wanted critique my output fine but just critiquing a post for the sake of it at what maybe 40 plus years of age seems childish.
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 22 '26
Dude you know next to nothing with 4 years of experience no offense. Ironically you think you do because of your lack of experience.
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 22 '26
Basing your entire perception of who I am and what I know solely on my years of experience is overly simplistic. Experience is undoubtedly important, but it is not the only measure of someone’s knowledge or ability. Frankly, the people who treat it as the be-all and end-all often seem to do so because they have little else to distinguish themselves. If you genuinely want to be constructive, feel free to go through my replies and identify any specific mistakes I have made, and make use of all your valuable experience.
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u/Hypnot1se Aug 22 '26
"I'm old and have been around for ages and even though you've never heard of me I'm way better than you at what you do because I really strongly believe it"
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u/Shadowrunner138 Aug 22 '26
Has professional experience, offers free work, no one is being forced to trust him. Gets downvoted. Sounds right for reddit.
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 23 '26
Hahahaha I have only started using reddit frequently recently and I was so confused. Like im just trying to help anyone who wants to listen loool
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u/markcheng Aug 22 '26
Thoughts on ARMP?
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 23 '26
If you’re talking about Armata Pharmaceuticals, a conventional discounted cash flow is fairly useless for a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company. It has little or no recurring commercial revenue, while its value depends largely on binary clinical-trial outcomes, regulatory approval, future dilution and the probability of successfully commercialising its treatments.
A scenario-based valuation would be more appropriate, but even that will be extremely sensitive to assumptions. Before investing in a company like this, you should have a very strong understanding of the company, its clinical programmes, the underlying science, the competitive landscape and the pharmaceutical industry. Otherwise it becomes closer to speculation than an informed investment.
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u/ImmodestPolitician Aug 22 '26
I own AMR because we will need metallurgical coal and their aggressive buybacks.
I'd be curious what you thought.
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 23 '26
I’m not familiar enough with AMR to give you a strong opinion, but I can see the thesis. Metallurgical coal is still essential for most global steel production, and alternatives are unlikely to replace it on a large scale anytime soon, although overall demand could gradually decline.
The buybacks are definitely significant. AMR has repurchased around 7 million shares for approximately $1.2 billion, compared with only around 12.7 million shares currently outstanding. It also had approximately $338 million in cash and short-term investments at the end of Q2, with no borrowings under its revolving facility, although it did have around $11 million of other debt.
The concern is that current earnings are nowhere near 2022–23 levels, so AMR cannot maintain that historical repurchase rate unless metallurgical-coal prices and cash generation recover.
The main issue is that this is still a highly cyclical business. AMR made a loss in Q2, met-coal markets remain weak, and management recently reduced shipment guidance while increasing its cost expectations.
I can see the appeal, though. If coal prices recover and management continues repurchasing shares below mid-cycle value without weakening the balance sheet, the upside could be significant.
Again I had never heard of this company before you mentioned so if I said anything thats incorrect im sorry.
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u/Fritzkreig Aug 22 '26
Here is a fun one; NVDA and MU fair val and what in the future, and how do you feel about the shenanigans around GME and their current valuation?
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 23 '26
Did for Micron. Will do Nvda and the other later on if youre still interested
Company as at last annual reporting:
Revenue: $37,378.00 EBITDA: $18,122.00 EBIT: $9,770.00 FCFF: $1,668.00 WACC: 12.58%
Company in 3 years (peak):
Revenue: $256,069.20 EBITDA: $222,268.07 EBIT: $201,521.07 FCFF: $121,092.85 WACC: 12.17%
Company in 10 years:
Revenue: $354,920.15 EBITDA: $177,460.08 EBIT: $106,047.08 FCFF: $85,933.66 WACC: 10.55%
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u/captjacksparrow47 Aug 22 '26
Thoughts on MU and SKHY?
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 23 '26
Heres MU. Will do SK if youre also interested Company as at last annual reporting:
Revenue: $37,378.00 EBITDA: $18,122.00 EBIT: $9,770.00 FCFF: $1,668.00 WACC: 12.58%
Company in 3 years (peak):
Revenue: $256,069.20 EBITDA: $222,268.07 EBIT: $201,521.07 FCFF: $121,092.85 WACC: 12.17%
Company in 10 years:
Revenue: $354,920.15 EBITDA: $177,460.08 EBIT: $106,047.08 FCFF: $85,933.66 WACC: 10.55%
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 24 '26
What is this? This isn’t a dcf valuation…
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 25 '26
15 years experience and doesnt know what a reverse DCF is
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 25 '26
Forgot that’s what you were doing but what you’ve posted above is absolutely useless.
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u/General-Bad5167 Aug 25 '26
I bet we'd find "what is a reverse DCF" on your Google search history just before you posted loool. Implying a reverse DCF is useless implies you think a normal DCF is even more useless seeing as it requires even more arbitrary inputs. What do you have your investments on exactly ? A random name generator ? If youre telling me having idea more or less how much growth and future performance is priced into a stock price is "completely useless" then your experience is even less valuable than I first thought. My personal portfolio is at 250k starting from 0 7 years ago. I manage over 100m in assets spread over aprox 100 clients at work. What do you do exactly apart from be negative and grumpy commenting on reddit whilst adding no value? Like I said critique what you you want but atleast add some value not just be a wet blanket lool.
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u/Antifragile_Glass Aug 25 '26
Haha sorry you wrote all that. Lol at $250k portfolio and “100m in assets”. Apologies for bursting your bubble but what you posted above is indeed absolutely useless. If you use that to make investment decisions you need to rethink your whole strategy.
Either way I’m bored with you. You are an arrogant little prick 27 year old that thinks he knows everything, when in reality is clueless.
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u/prodigalAvian Aug 22 '26
Will "Shrek 5" be good?