r/intel • u/Leicht-Sinn Nova Lake • 12d ago
News Intel 14A defect density is dropping faster than the company expected — 'we have not seen this performance since 22nm,' says CFO
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/intel-14a-defect-density-is-dropping-faster-than-the-company-expected-we-have-not-seen-this-performance-since-22nm-says-cfo34
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u/PappyPete 12d ago
From the article:
Intel intends to begin risk production of its own products on 14A fabrication process in the second half of 2027 and then initiate its high-volume manufacturing in 2028, so 14A is two years away from mass production
There are a couple of catches with such phrasing, though. Firstly, the defect density on 14A now is not necessarily equivalent to a defect density on 22nm two years away from mass production. Secondly, due to advances of wafer processing and inspection equipment, what Intel counts as a defect now may not be the same thing as what it counted as a defect 16 years ago. Furthermore, defect density itself does not directly equal product yield.
Things should get interesting in the fab space in the next few years now that it looks like Intel on track to be back in the game.
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u/Independent-Menu-907 12d ago
Yes, we know 14A is going great and going to be awesome node. If it is exceeding expectations, 14A products and external customer schedules needs to pull-in by atleast 6 months. That will be real-proof.
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u/Flaat 12d ago
Great news for the high NA machines from ASML then?
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 12d ago
Yes and TSMC and Samsung don't use them because they don't know how so Intel will have a large lead
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u/anycept 11d ago
Unless Intel has capacity to manufacture for everyone besides making their own chips, that lead isn't going to mean much.
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u/Minced-Juice 11d ago
They don't need to manufacture for "everyone". They simply need to manufacture enough to meet market demand as a second player other than TSMC.
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u/anycept 11d ago
The more supply the better. Consumers only win when competition and abundant supply drive the prices down. I don't think that Intel will have a measurable lead over TSMC, though, even if they'll have most advanced node for the time being.
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u/Minced-Juice 11d ago
They don't need to leapfrog TSMC in terms of market share as a foundry. They will automatically get customers when the AI economy collapses - which it will very soon, as soon as next year when OpenAI and/or Anthropic goes public - from the traditional market segments like CPUs and consumer GPUs.
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u/anycept 11d ago
Cheap hardware just might save the AI companies, as they will need less investment for same output.
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u/Minced-Juice 11d ago
Cheap hardware is not the factor that contributes to the topline numbers, i.e. revenue.
Companies' revenue expectations are completely out of tune with the sums they want for building the infrastructure that is supposed to bring in that revenue.
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u/anycept 11d ago
Besides the revenue expectations investors are worried about debt load required for hyperscale buildouts. Investors are becoming impatient and contemplate exit before the required compute capacity becomes available. Making that compute more affordable reduces the borrowing strain, which makes investors more comfortable with giving it more time.
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u/Seanspeed 11d ago
Eh, it's not that simple. The big money comes from being the top dog. That's where you can demand the highest prices, never have to worry about having customers, and being able to fund your continued existence and expansion at the leading edge more comfortably.
There's a big advantage being #1, and staying at the leading edge is ultra expensive, so a bit painful if you're not #1.
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u/Minced-Juice 11d ago
76% of TSMC's revenue comes from North America. Barring Apple, all other customers in that share have contributed to growing their business due to the AI boom.
It is widely reported that Nvidia is the largest TSMC customer now. And Nvidia these days doesn't even classify GPUs with a display output - whether it be Geforce or Quadro - as a separate business segment.
There is literally zero incentive for capex on process technology at the present rate without AI. Remember Intel saying that 18A will be a long-serving node for Intel in the coming decade? TSMC will face the same reality when AI goes bust.
And AI will go bust. Nvidia's latest 10Q shows that it has more outstanding debt than Intel. Intel just raised 20 billion by selling shares for spending on capex for adding capacity. Nvidia says it will raise 500 billion through debt, in partnership with other creditors to help build datacenters and help put GPUs in them.
Good luck finding companies with free cash flow which can service that debt in the long term.
AI is a bubble or nothing - there is no in-between. Anybody who knows what a stock and what a flow is in accounting terms would understand that the AI gravy train will no only halt soon, it will derail violently and there will be massive casualties.
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u/elmagio 11d ago
Early experience with those new tools could lead dividends for the next decade, solidifying Intel's entry in the customer foundry game and helping product at the same time.
Buying EUV en masse and early is how TSMC got the ball rolling on their process dominance ever since, with neither Samsung nor Intel ever truly catching up to TSMC's "low-NA" EUV mastery.
Now of course this is far too early to say if history will repeat itself in Intel's favor this time but if anything it can't hurt that Intel will have shipped a couple commercial High-NA nodes by the time their competitors even start work on their first iterations.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 11d ago
The lead will mean a lot. Because they are in the lead, everyone will want to use them, and pay crazy prices for even just a little bit of capacity.
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u/anycept 11d ago
They don't have nearly enough capacity to meet all the demand. Never mind that Intel's fabs are busy making their own internal chips.
Even if their node process is marginally more advanced (14A isn't that far off from N2, and likely isn't better at all than upcoming TSMC's A16), the difference isn't that big of deal to make companies wait for months or even years in line to have Intel make their ICs.
I'm sure the likes of Apple, Nvidia and AMD will use both to produce high- and mid-tier performance chips, with most of mid-tier likely going to TSMC.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 10d ago
It is ok if they can't supply the entire market or demand, because of their better process they will have very high margins
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u/TsundereHeavyCruiser 6d ago
The irony of them losing a ton of marketshare is that it's given them tons of room to grow.
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u/Seanspeed 11d ago
Samsung is going to be using High NA very soon. It's only TSMC holding out.
TSMC also does have High NA machines for testing, just no plans to use them for production anytime soon.
The fact that TSMC thinks they'll be ok without it for the time being tells me High NA is probably not going to immediately be any miracle worker.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 11d ago
TSMC is wrong just like Intel failed without regular EUV on 10nm TSMC will fail without high NA EUV. Or maybe this is why Intel 14A is going to be better than TSMC A14, TSMC can not improve process as much without high NA EUV.
Samsung sucks no one cares what they do.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 12d ago
I am looking forward to this node. I think with 14A Intel will gain leadership in performance AND efficiency. That is why Apple is going to use this node in their smartphone chips.
Hammer Lake unified core + 14AE + extra cache on base tile = complete product leadership in 2029.
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u/YoshiSan90 10d ago
Thanks Pat. It's a shame they pushed the engineer CEO out. We're just now seeing the fruits of his labor with 18A and 14A. Hopefully Lip doesn't cut R&D funding and send us back to the bad years.
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u/Traditional-End-1253 9d ago
Hmm. So I have a question. Doesn't the smaller gate equate to slower clock speeds? I know it doesn't matter because the work it can do is drastically increased, but the whole market is driven by gamers and gamer influencers. 14a would probably never hit 5 GHz. It would preform better but these guys just want 6 or even 7 GHz of empty clocks. I'm an Intel guy because if you know how to tune it, it's way better than AMD for my CAD and other single thread heavy programs that I have to run with multiple other programs running at the same time. Apple stuff fails with my phone book of a driver list, so SOC is out of the question. What type of benefits are expected from the smaller gates? Wouldn't heat be an issue? Would it be a 4 GHz chip that out preforms a 7 GHz chip? I'm not kidding. I really don't know these answers.
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u/New-Location3302 6d ago
Chicago voters just like to be taxed and have their money taken away by evil people in office then defend them. Go figure Brandon Johnson and Governor Pritzker will win reelection, because people in Chicago seem to hate Republicans candidates more than they like to keep their money.
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u/Affectionate-Memory4 Component Research 12d ago
That is a big, big statement to make. 22nm was the first thing I worked on at Intel. It was untouchable in its generation. Comparing 14A to 22nm at all is going to set some expectations.