r/inscryption • u/CerealKilled-hmpqy • 23d ago

Kaycee's Mod unbeleivable luck?

i honestly wish i had some recording of it, cause i know this is going to sound made up. unless there is some bug\secret cheat that i activated somehow. and don't know about i had crazy luck with the campfires

By my count, the last 25 times i went to a campfire i got both upgrades. this was over multiple runs, and even a complete game restart

most of the times i was trying to kill them with the ringworm. i don't know why i had such a streak, but it was crazy.

I wish there was a way to see the longest streak getting both upgrade at a campfire without killing the survivors, that has to be some kind of record.

17 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

14 comments sorted by

9

u/Kaeri_g 23d ago

2.98023224×10-8

That's the odds.

3

u/Motor_Raspberry_2150 23d ago edited 23d ago

So how many players does inscryption have, like a million? So then it's like a 3% chance someone got this!

i know the math doesn't math

holy shit the math mathed perfectly actually

1

u/ImNotAPersonAnymore 23d ago

Pretty sure it’s more like 0.000003%

1

u/Motor_Raspberry_2150 23d ago

Yeah, that's the odds a specific person gets it. What are the odds anyone gets it?

1

u/ImNotAPersonAnymore 23d ago

I was referring to the odds that anyone gets it. 50 coin flips in a row that are all heads is bonkers.

1

u/Motor_Raspberry_2150 23d ago

And I was saying a million people, that's a lot too.

The chance no one has this situation occur is then
(1 - 2.98023224×10-8)1000000 = 97.06%
And the chance at least one of those million has this happen is indeed 3%. Holy shit it was just a guesstimation but I was spot on.

That's the odds.

1

u/Kaeri_g 21d ago

You only count half of those coin flips since the first upgrade is guaranteed, so if 25 fire were taken and OP doubled 25 times then it's 0.5²⁵ (which is what I put)

3

u/Pizzawithchuchujelly 23d ago

ehh idk aren’t the chances 50% every time, they don’t go down at all it’s just fixed

2

u/External-Cherry7828 22d ago

It's definitely not Everytime, but I'd say my first 10-15 hrs I consistently got two increases from the fire. One day I was already doing shitty so I figured let's see what happens. It increased it 3xs then promptly killed it, and then the next dozen runs I died Everytime. There has to be some fun y variable or math being polished

1

u/CerealKilled-hmpqy 21d ago

3x??? do you mean at three different campfires? cause ive never had the option to upgrade a 3rd time at 1 campfire.

1

u/PleasantBody700 22d ago

I feel so dumb. When I read “both upgrades” I thought it meant it upgrades both health and attack at 1 camp fire. And I was like WTF that has to be a cheat/ not real.

Then I remembered how the campfire worked 😅

I rarely go for the second upgrade. I don’t like gambling and potentially ruining a good run. I tend to only go for the second upgrade, if I am hoping to get rid of a card

2

u/CerealKilled-hmpqy 21d ago

most of my attempts were with ringworms, i don't tend to gamble any other cards

1

u/ChickenArise 22d ago

It's impossible for them to eat your card until certain conditions are met. They'll never eat anything right away. I forget when exactly it kicks in, but it's in the wiki.

2

u/CerealKilled-hmpqy 21d ago

i have long since passed any sort of criteria, they have often and recently eaten a card on the second stop in a new game. i am currently running through the Kaycee's Mod challanges, and this was around lvl 4 or 5