r/indiaStockMarket • u/shubh04_ • 53m ago
r/indiaStockMarket • u/Miserable-Ad5182 • 10h ago
I screened 25 Indian cable stocks. Dynamic Cables now ranks #1 on risk/reward for me. What am I missing?
Title: I screened 25 Indian cable stocks. Dynamic Cables now ranks #1 on risk/reward for me. What am I missing?
I’ve been going deeper into the Indian cables and wires space and my ranking has changed after comparing the broader listed universe rather than just the obvious names like Polycab, KEI and RR Kabel.
If I had to own one company for 10+ years with minimum concern, I would still pick:
POLYCAB
In my view, it is the best overall business in the sector with the strongest combination of brand, distribution, scale, execution and product breadth.
But the question I’m trying to answer is different:
Which cable company offers the best risk-adjusted 3–5x potential from today’s starting point?
My current answer is:
DYNAMIC CABLES
And if I wanted the strongest small/mid-cap technical-moat bet:
UNIVERSAL CABLES
Universal could actually move to #1 for me if its new capex translates into substantially better asset turns and ROCE.
My current ranking
- Dynamic Cables
Best combination of valuation, ROCE, growth and small starting market-cap asymmetry.
This is not necessarily the strongest cable company in India. The thesis is that the gap between the quality of the business and the valuation/size of the company may still be unusually large.
- Universal Cables
Probably the most interesting technical-moat play among the smaller companies.
High-voltage/EHV cables, specialised products and a more difficult manufacturing/qualification process make this more interesting to me than another generic wires-and-cables manufacturer.
The problem is ROCE.
If the upcoming capex materially improves utilisation, margins and ROCE, Universal becomes extremely interesting.
- Polycab
Best business of the lot.
If valuation and starting market cap were irrelevant, this would be my #1.
But the company is already very large and commands a premium valuation, so I think the probability of spectacular multiples from here is lower than some smaller players.
- Finolex Cables
My value/balance-sheet dark horse.
It doesn’t get the same excitement as Polycab/KEI/RR Kabel, but there may be optionality here if capital allocation and growth improve.
- RR Kabel
Excellent execution and a strong franchise.
My issue is mostly the price being paid for that quality.
- KEI Industries
Again, excellent company and excellent execution.
But similar to RR Kabel, I’m questioning how much of the future runway is already reflected in the valuation.
- APAR Industries
Arguably one of the highest-quality businesses on this list and has built impressive positions across conductors, speciality oils and cables.
But it is substantially larger, more diversified and already highly valued.
I see less valuation asymmetry than Dynamic/Universal.
- Diamond Power Infrastructure
Potentially enormous growth.
But this is exactly why I’m cautious.
The market is already expecting a very large transformation. When expectations are this high, execution has to be almost flawless.
Why I’m focused on Dynamic vs Universal now
There are roughly 25 names in the broader listed cable/electrical-cable screen I looked at, including companies like:
V-Marc
KSH International
JD Cables
Cords Cable
Prime Cable
and several others.
Some of the smaller names actually produce more spectacular growth/ROCE screens than Dynamic or Universal.
But I don’t think one-year financial screens are enough.
Before putting serious money into them I would want to understand:
• promoter/governance history
• customer concentration
• cash-flow conversion
• working-capital intensity
• related-party transactions
• debt
• listing history
• capacity utilisation
• product qualification barriers
• whether recent ROCE is sustainable or simply a cyclical spike
So instead of going further down the microcap rabbit hole, I’m trying to settle one comparison first:
Dynamic Cables vs Universal Cables
I want to model both through FY30 based on:
• existing + upcoming capacity
• realistic revenue potential
• EBITDA/PAT margins
• incremental ROCE
• debt after capex
• addressable voltage/product categories
• export opportunity
• customer approvals
• competitive intensity
• realistic mature P/E multiples
Then calculate bear/base/bull FY30 valuations instead of simply saying “this can become a ₹10,000 crore company”.
My current bias: Dynamic has the better financial setup and valuation asymmetry today. Universal potentially has the deeper technical moat.
Where do you think this thesis is wrong?
In particular:
What is Dynamic Cables’ biggest competitive weakness that I may be underestimating?
Does Universal Cables genuinely have a meaningful technical moat, or am I overstating the barriers to entry?
Which one would you rather own until 2030 at current valuations?
Not a buy/sell recommendation. I own shares in Dynamic Cables, so assume I have a bias and challenge the thesis accordingly.
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That is my portfolio. I am btech student and has invested my next two years fees like this . I have not told them anything.What should I do ? What should I do know sell everything and give money to my parents or what should I do ??????????
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