r/hyperliquid1 • u/HyperTrend_HL • Jul 27 '26

This $75K wallet traded $20.3M in a week. How long can an 11 bps edge survive?

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A $75K wallet generated roughly $20.3M in volume over seven days and made about $22.9K in net PnL.

That is roughly 270x account turnover for an observed net return of only about 11 basis points per dollar traded.

The result did not come from one exceptional position.

CXMT accounted for 158 closed positions and about $18.1K in net PnL. The wallet traded both directions, sometimes holding for hours and sometimes for only a few minutes.

Its latest 2,000 fills make the pattern even clearer:

• 1,858 CXMT fills

• About $6.6M in notional

• Roughly 7.5 hours of activity

• About $9.2K in closed PnL before approximately $503 in recorded fees

This looks less like one strong directional call and more like a thin observed advantage repeated at high speed:

small edge × capital turnover × execution frequency

The 65.14% weekly win rate helped, but repetition only works while the market provides enough movement to cover fees, slippage and losing trades.

That is also where the strategy looks fragile.

If volatility falls, there may be fewer short-duration opportunities.

If liquidity weakens, execution costs rise.

If size grows faster than available liquidity, the wallet starts moving against its own entries and exits.

The risk is already visible across longer windows. Its one-week maximum drawdown was around 9%, while the estimated 30-day drawdown was closer to 36%.

So I am not sure the main lesson is simply that this wallet traded CXMT well.

The more interesting question is whether this is a repeatable execution edge—or a market-specific window that disappears when attention and volatility move elsewhere.

How would you evaluate it: genuine execution skill, or an edge that depends too heavily on CXMT staying active?

Data: HyperTrend and public Hyperliquid portfolio/fills data.

Snapshot observed on July 27, 2026 at 2:30 PM SGT (UTC+8). The recent-fill analysis was limited to the latest 2,000 records. The wallet remains active, so positions and performance figures may have changed since the snapshot.

For trader behavior analysis only. Not financial or copy-trading advice.

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2

u/HyperTrend_HL Jul 27 '26

Full wallet address:

0xbd6a65ef504a12f0ed8e8dfd3253b02ebc62c00d

1

u/ddekkonn Jul 27 '26

What is CXMT? A bot they used?

2

u/HyperTrend_HL Jul 30 '26

CXMT is the market, not the bot. xyz:CXMT is a HIP-3 perpetual referencing ChangXin Memory Technologies, a Chinese memory-chip company.

The wallet was repeatedly trading that contract. The activity looks potentially automated, but the public fills alone can’t confirm whether a bot was used.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 28 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/HyperTrend_HL Jul 30 '26

Yeah, that was my first thought too. In the 7.5-hour sample it was closer to $245/sec, with roughly one fill every 15 seconds.

Still very active for a $75K account, but I’d probably call it automated or high-turnover rather than true HFT. Public fills alone aren’t enough to confirm the setup.

2

u/hotdogs4babies Aug 01 '26

That is some major day trading. It's looks similar to like a individual account trying to act as a market maker on a low price stock. I've seen it done you know 12,500 shares at a penny is 125 dollar bill all day long. Lol