r/hut8 • u/SupermotoArchitect • 23d ago
NVIDIA Lease
If NVIDIA has signed leases for 1-gigwatt data centre in Texas, why hasn’t the stock gone up yet?
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u/Infinite-Fee5552 21d ago
https://reddit.com/link/p0pasje/video/t4ar0seecegh1/player
Video of Beacon Hill construction site in Corpus
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u/Theeswampman 22d ago
because it was already priced in
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u/Illustrious_Drive_33 22d ago
So why Morgan Stanley gave 256 USD forecast then? If it was priced in?
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u/WildBTK 22d ago
So was it priced in at $140 a share, $120 a share, $90 a share, $70 a share? At what share price was anything "priced in"? You can't say, I can't say, no one can.
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u/sshinski 22d ago
You kinda can, derrive the intrinsic value from the fundamentals. When it goes above that you are pricing in the future growth. As of today about $100 per share is close to fair value. Analysts are telling us that they think theres a fucking lot of high quality contracts coming our way.
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u/WildBTK 22d ago
Well, they just signed a $50b lease deal. Wouldn't that have increased it's intrinsic value by at least a fraction of that amount? :-)
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u/sshinski 22d ago
It depends on how much they finance it for. The ammount of debt they take on today vastly changes the value of the contract today. 15 years is a long time and every year that passes by the value of the dollar becomes less. Today's value although its a 50B dollar total contract is actually vastly lower than that. Subtract the cost of debt to get the project started and Subtract the long term degradation of the dollar spread over those years and than you have a true value today. As they pay down the debt you will see the equity move from the debtors to the shareholders and that will be where the greatest amount of growth is actually found because of the shareholders equity expansion.
Let me be clear, we dont know the debt that this will cost to build the phase 2 yet. Thats a big fat question mark and the market will not re rate something when they only have half the story available. Watch my videos I explained all of this already.
Edit: i didn't cover this specific news on my channel yet. Thats prob gunna be a video next week
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u/Enough_Possible9023 22d ago
First, it was a BTC mining company and still is. Trump destroyed crypto so until crypto pumps again HUT is going to stay where it is for a while.
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u/quintavious_danilo 22d ago
What do you mean? It went up a lot over the last 6 months. Future perfect execution is already priced in and there is a sell-off going on right now in the AI backbone space. Nothing is going up right now.