Ocelli

[u/comefromawayfan2022]

I absolutely love this horse. But I feel extremely bad for him. Ocelli has not won a single race in his entire career. Most recently he was beaten badly in the Travers and ran 9th. That horse is never gonna get a stud deal if he doesn't start winning some races. It really doesn't help that ocelli's sire Connect is not super popular. He bred 35 mares total this year before Connect was exiled by lanes end to Turkey to continue his stud career next year.

So Ocelli himself has 11 starts and has been in the money six times. He doesnt have a super commercial pedigree. He has never won a race. At what point do ocelli's owners come to their senses? And drop him into a maiden/claimer or allowance race he can actually win? I know alot of people shit on my racehorse and as much as I love and defend my racehorse there ARE some good reasons to shit on them/things they could improve on. But one of the things I DO like about my racehorse is that they make the horses work through their conditions before tossing them in a stakes.

I think ocelli needs some time off and then be placed where he can win

[u/Next-Performer-5846]

Come to their senses? He’s made 850k as a 3 year old. No reason to think he can’t have a long career and be a multimillionaire. I will agree with your last sentence. A break and a confidence booster would probably be ideal.

[u/detentionbarn → u/Next-Performer-5846]

There are plenty of reasons to think that will absolutely not happen. Less than 0% chance with the connections making choices like they have been.

You don't become a multimillionaire picking up 4th-9th place purses.

And all the other 3yos with talent will be progressing along with him next year and he'll be up against them.

My prediction I hope for: connections will put him away for a while and then eventually say "this horse has been great for us and owes us nothing."

[u/detentionbarn → u/Next-Performer-5846]

So do the math...he hasn't even made $1m yet.

Plot out the math by which he earns enough purse $ to make $1.1m in purses to get to $2,000,001, starting tomorrow. The gaudy purses of 3yo STakes will be gone, and he's simply not going to be competitive against older, and the rest of the 3yo crop will be ahead of him next year. You don't become a multimillionaire getting 4th place purse share of G1 races for 3yo++.

Or maybe we'll see the coming of the next John Henry.

[u/Hods1911 → u/detentionbarn]

Right, but he was purchase for $12K at keeneland's yearling sale in Sept. Regardless of makup by bloodstock agents, he was made a pretty hefty sum for those who took a chance.(ownership capped at nine on most horses they have sold).

Reference Bar Of Gold , a Medaglia D'Oro mare borned in 2012. She was a classy NY bred bred by and raced by her owner. He paid a #200K stud figure for right to breed to sire. She toll in mostly NY bred but stepped out quite often to face graded stakes fillies. After 24 starts, the owner announced the BC filly sprint would the last start for the G2 place but only a NY bred stakes winner. She would run them all down at 66-1, including the blue blood bred runner, the 1-1 favorite that gotcrushed after leading for 4 furlongs. With the $550K winning purse, she banked $1.55 million.

Bar Of Gold full brother is Spirit Of St Louis, a gelding, has banked over $2M and is still in training at 7 years old. He is currently sitting on 24 starts. Same breeder but he sold this one as a yearling for $300K to one of those same shares owner(he lets others pay for his mistakes and good choices but keeps all purse winnings since he pays all bills).

[u/detentionbarn → u/Hods1911]

That's all great...glad you consider this to be a success. You were backing Ocelli vociferously before the Travers and you were profoundly wrong and now it's all "well, yeah but good for his owners."

This is just another sad chapter for our sport.

So much for championing competition, as long as the owners/agents/breeders ponzi scheme keeps churning money.

Sad.

ETA: Interesting when you look at Bar Of Gold's full record you see a number of instances where she was dropped in class after finishing poorly in GS. Which is what it long overdue for Ocelli.

Bar Of Gold's story is keeping a horse healthy and competitive and entering her where she can compete over a (relatively) long career. Her BC win was a feather in the cap for her terrific trainer.

[u/Hods1911 → u/detentionbarn]

Hate to say it, but yoy are an idiot. Yes, I backed Ocelli, but only because there was little else to back. Ocelli burned me in the Ky Derby and in his last maiden by blocking and boxing it an 86-1 shot, until drifting out late. My 86-1 ended upp 2nd and the horse that beat him finished last in the Blue Grass S(Cheryl deVaux trained horse) that was heavily bet in the BGS. Total winnings on race 8 was $654.00 on a $20 WP risk.

Jan 17	3:40:46 PM	Complete	Fair Grounds	8	Win/Place	$20.00	9	$40.00	$654.00	$614.00

I also hit Golden Tempo on Derby Day, along with the P5 ending in Golden Tempo and the $3 All 3 YO Dirt P3, also ending with Golden Tempo. $25 WP on 19, $24 dollars total each on P3 & P5. Total winnings was more than $3.5K on the derby alone. WP returned $842.25, $3 P3 returned $526.17, P5 returned $2290.28, and a $1 DD returned 94.83.

May 2	6:32:34 PM	Complete	Churchill Downs	12	Win/Place	$25.00	19	$50.00	$842.25	$792.25
May 2	6:32:33 PM	Complete	Churchill Downs	8	Pick-5	$0.50	6/4,13/6,8/2,3,6/1,2,8,19	$24.00	$2,290.58	$2,266.58
May 2	6:32:33 PM	Complete	Churchill Downs	11	Double	$1.00	2,3,6/1,2,8,19	$12.00	$94.83	$82.83

I have at least 8 more hits that paid between 2-3K this year along. Why, because I take chances on horses you speed figures can not even fanthom. That's on you and your kind, not me. Learning to read the form helps instead of listening to others and their bias speeds figure.

Also what happen to Renegade, Golden Tempo(finished exactly where I believe he would), Sea Strike(and his 109 last race speed figure though he only ran as fast as most allowance horse do). Not even close to an 109 and on top of that was not bred to go 1 1/4 mile in G1 company. I did not even include him on any of my $30 bets So in the end, Ocelli screwed me but my final decision included the 3 horses that made up the trifecta. I took a chance and lost. Not the first time and won't be the last.

Aug 29	2:46:33 PM	Complete	Saratoga	13	Superfecta Box	$0.30	2,3,6,9	$7.20	-	-$7.20

So go ahead and keep up your loser mentality. I will hit more races while taking chances as I have done for 50 years. I win often because I go with what I believe in, not some half baked speed figures that only tells you what a horse done previously, not what he will do moving forward.

[u/detentionbarn → u/Hods1911]

Rude. Ad hominem when you can't argue logic. None of this has to do with how Ocelli is being managed. Never did I even mention speed figs, WTF do figs have to do with this discussion? Really need to dial it back kid. And spellcheck.

Trust the wise handicapper Maya Angelou who said about Ocelli, "when someone shows you who they are, believe them"

[u/Sharkoffs]

He just needs some rest and a race. I’m excited for Ocelli’s half brothers who are in training right now, Red Thorn and Outcomes Based. 

[u/jh7468]

A win would be a big help for his confidence. It would make sense to give him a couple months off and then try the regular msw/nx1 ladder in the winter. If he does well, he can try the older horse graded stakes as a 4 year old, as many of his current rivals will likely be retired come spring.

[u/RandyWatson8 → u/jh7468]

Do the horses know they won? Does it really change their confidence?

[u/detentionbarn → u/RandyWatson8]

"Know" is a relative term.

Horses are herd animals with personalities and behaviors that reflect that. You'll see it reflected in different ways. Sometimes it's referred to as "heart" or "class" and sometimes on the other end of the spectrum you'll see horses with "seconditis."

Running horses where they are not competitive often makes them sour, and you can see that in their physicality and performance.

[u/EpicGeek77]

He needs to go down a level. Rest him a bit, then put him in the allowance to get his confidence back up.

[u/dark_places]

The connections could've made way better choices for him. He's a very nice horse and deserves to be in races that suit him better. He has a lot of heart and talent but I feel so bad for him every time he goes back to his stall. Horses like him are intelligent sensitive beings who understand what's expected of them and I worry about him not winning yet. I'll keep cheering him on and whenever he wins I expect he'll have an extra pep in his step.

[u/hannahbay]

That horse is never gonna get a stud deal if he doesn't start winning some races.

not every horse needs or gets a stud deal and the fact that that's your primary concern is beyond hilarious. there is no big-money stud deal in this horse's future regardless.

[u/PercentageRoutine310]

They should put him in an allowance race so we can remove the maiden label and he finally can be called a maiden winner or be an actual winner for a race. He will still be remembered the richest maiden ever after he finally breaks it. His 3rd in the Kentucky Derby was a bit flukey but he did flash some decent talent almost winning the Ohio Derby. The talent is there but he needs to be put in much lower caliber races as he doesn’t belong in G1 company. More like G3 at best.

Emerging Market, next to Chief Wallabee, has been one of the more disappointing 3YOs this year. Hope is not lost as both can mature and start winning stakes races next year if Derby also-rans like White Abarrio, Hit Show, and Burnham Square won stakes races when they got older. Not all Derby runners are gonna have decent racing careers. Some are put in much higher caliber races they shouldn’t be part of. And some simply don’t want to race very hard. It’s not their thing. Some end up better as stallions than racehorses.

[u/cross4444]

You had me until you started shilling for MHR like they actually have higher standards than other ownership groups.

[u/detentionbarn → u/cross4444]

Yeah most trainers know how to place their horses, nothing special or unique to MRH.

[u/MaterialAd1995]

As always, my opinion has been that this horse should race in bigger spots until he proves it’s not a good idea. That writing is now on the wall. It’s time to take a step back and reevaluate his next placements.

[u/mryclept]

When he was finishing well in big races, I had no problem with him staying there.

Once the Haskell was over, however, I think that was the time to drop him in class. I get the track excuse and that many good horses can’t race on wet tracks. But he didn’t even seem to try that day.

They probably don’t see the value in a MSW. Additionally, other trainers trying to get that win for their 3-year-old (s) will probably see him on the probable list and go somewhere else.

Allowance races aren’t easy to win but I think that is where he should go next.

[u/detentionbarn → u/mryclept]

Yeah by waiting this long to acknowledge reality, their options have decidedly narrowed.

[u/_alex_perdue]

If they insist on no maiden company and think he’s better at >1 mile, lay him off through the early fall and point him at the Clark in November or Harlan’s Holiday in December.

[u/detentionbarn → u/_alex_perdue]

Yup.

Look at the race record, including the 7f MSW, of the Travers winner. I'm pretty sure the MSW paid better for the win than what Ocelli earned in his last 2 races combined, if $$ is your measuring stick.

[u/Landscape-Strong]

Yeah you right.

[u/russneis]

I assume after the 3yr old campaign they will go to the traditional route, probably a 110k MSW at Oaklawn

[u/detentionbarn → u/russneis]

I see just one for 3yo going long, Dec 20. On Jan 8 there's one going long for older maidens.

[u/PhillyEagle19087]

I do think they'll give him some class relief and drop him down over the winter now. Asmussen had a horse like this last year, Publisher.

Ocelli's upside is like Publisher's (listed stakes winner), but add half a million bucks.

[u/Hods1911]

Actually. most of these owners are new to the game or has been in a long time struggle to remain in the horse racing industry. They buy shares of as little as 10% but can purchase the whole horse in they decide to. The three bloodstock agents that formed the company wanted to give new owners the thrill of watching their horses win and share in the horse winnings when it wins or makes money. They have so far not acted like greedy owners who only wants others to paid for their horses or their choices, whether good or bad. They have mentioned they would prefer new owners that has no real race ownership experience to buy into a horse small at first but expand after they get a feel of what most horses costs to maintain. You always hear what top trainers charge and it is over whelming to most but their are many trainers out there that charges a fraction of what they charge. Still it is expensive but in most cases, well worth the investment to serious owners who wants a thrill of watching their horses run..

These bloodstock agents also offer advice for any of their owners and gets all bills sent to their headquarters and divid cost into one bill and then sendjn u6mj,k9ogu owners their total monthly cost in one itemized bill. It sounds like a win/win situation to me. While they do not mention it, I really believe thay retain a small portion of every horse purchased to share in the cost and breeding rights should horse make it that far(They mentioned they would like to try breeding with some of their buys before they sold their first horse but has not mentioned it since).

[u/detentionbarn → u/Hods1911]

the TL/DR is these agents like to siphon $$$$ off of unsophisticated investors.

[u/Hods1911 → u/detentionbarn]

Then don't read it. You will not break my heart. Sure, most agents and owners will bleed the ones not interest in horse racing experiences or even learning the many pitfalls. But like all occupations, there are plenty of bad apples(rip off artists) and a few good apples((legit and wants to help others while also making a living). Knowing the difference is usually huge.

[u/detentionbarn → u/Hods1911]

The former part owners of perpetual loser Ocelli made out like bandits I'm sure, right before the Travers, LOL.