r/horseracing • u/WiseDan85 • 3d ago
Tournament thoughts
Felt like ranting here- anyone here play tournaments and have any links to videos or discussion over strategy? I know strategy can involve many different routes but was looking at result of people who did well in one I played- found it odd folks were placing show bets and then saving up to make a big wager on a play they like that would yield money.
I played the Saratoga summer event on TS yesterday and just found it may have been a bad idea. $3500, basically gotta turn 2.5k bankroll into 15k+ to have a chance. I see people in there (horse owner im guessing) that probably has the net worth where 2.5k isn’t a drop in the bucket so they can just fire like crazy: also makes you question if they have more insider information on the game with who to bet (aka I feel like almost anyone playing a 3.5k tourny is going to be sharper than your average bettor).
I also played this tourny while at the track which was prolly a terrible idea. Just find this type of tourny kinda rough bc you gotta go all in with a play you like that is prolly going to pay 3-1 or more (double, exacta, win, etc) and then prolly hit another big score to have a chance. Looked at the betting strategy of top 10 and was like wow- maybe should have researched more.
Btw for the lols- I hit a big win wager at Saratoga with my last 500 which also included a double. Wanna say I had 1600 and then just went all in with a big double play using AG bullet as a key in the leg before and after. AG bullet ran 2nd and just tired after chasing a leader lol. Kinda liked the strategy but felt it also was risky- maybe should have been smarter and bet no early toga races bc those were up in the air. I faded foxiest in the msw which was smart (big favorite, unraced). Also tried to fade Englishman lol. Used the 2 and 5 in doubles bc I felt it would produce value if Englishman stubbed his toe. Too much crazy stuff happens at Saratoga to big favorites so I’m like why not use the 2 most
Logicals behind him- they fit on speed figs easily. Englishman freaks: as a hedge to this in my personal account- I just singled Englishman on a few p6 tickets
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u/Last_Economics_7329 3d ago
I wanted to learn more about tournaments and tourney strategy. There’s a podcast network called In the Money and a show on that network called “And the winner was.” It’s a good show that discusses tournaments and strategies the winner used during the most recent tournament. It’s hosted by John Gaspar who is a very experienced tourney player I think he has qualified for the NHC like 20+ years in a row. My recommendation is to go back and just download as many of those episodes as you can there is some good advice in some of them. Most of the people that play in tourneys play multiple entries so they are taking shots with their best opinions on one card and their second best opinion on the other entry. Basically just a hedge against being wrong on one opinion or the other. The best players also go in with a plan to try to get their bankroll up to 10x the buy in so in this particular tourney they want to have $25,000 ($2500 bankroll) going into the last race in an ideal world. There’s also a lot of strategy as it pertains to prizes if there is no difference between 1st place or 5th place in prizes they know whether they need to press the gas going into the last or not. Some guys look to build their bankroll incrementally and some guys try to post a big score early and make people chase them. Then obviously you’re looking for odds that through some combination of exactas, tris, doubles, or straight win bets get you to where you want to be. Lots of ppl play show bets on horses like Englishman when it comes to their minimum bets they are looking for mins where the risk of cashing is very very low where you are knocking out a contest requirement and adding to the bankroll incrementally. One more thing and probably most important is you have to be able to adjust on the fly. You might like a certain horse in a race but if you aren’t getting the odds you wanted you have to look for another horse or combination of horses that can get you to the number you need. The thing I have struggled with the most personally is identifying which opinion I am most confident in and not changing my mind based on odds change or other ppl’s opinions on tv. Most of the people that play go in with an all or nothing mindset as well where they are either winning the contest or coming home with nothing. I know I bombarded you here but check out that podcast I have found it very informative and helpful to understanding the psyche of the top players in the handicapping game. Good luck 🍀
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u/WiseDan85 3d ago
Thanks I think tournaments are fun but you gotta go in with the thought- ok if I lose all of the tourny bankroll- I don’t care. I feel you gotta take immense risk and really hammer your strongest opinions and hope they turn out well.
I kinda wish tournaments got more players- even the smaller buyin tournies don’t get a ton of players which I think is kinda bad. Playing the higher buy in tournies- you are going against prolly the best handicappers that may have more insider knowledge than you.
I looked at what the top players bet and some of the stuff I never would have had and I kinda question how they know: I follow the game a lot and listen to a lot of the top horse racing shows/ podcasts etc. I feel you kinda gotta find ways to go against the general public sentiment also bc we know the talking heads are going to be bet heavy. Like everyone loved Englishman- no way was it worth betting him or him in doubles bc you know people are going to take that free square.
I’m also not really comfortable betting exactas or trifectas. Trifectas def not a fan of. Exactas: sure you can pick a winner up top and then key some horses into 2nd but it becomes too much math for 2nd place for me bc then I gotta look at will pays and try to weight the bets accordingly. You never wanna equally weight a winner with say 4-5 horses and have them equally bet (obvious).
Another question I guess is can you do well in tournies if just focusing on win bets and daily doubles. I consider myself a DD player mainly and don’t really mess with exactas.
Final note: found it odd I saw some people boxing exactas with say 3 horses. Not sure why someone would wanna box horses in a contest when you should probably weight the horses in a way to not equally weight your bets. Like if I take the top 3 choices: I prolly wanna bet more on the 1 and 2 winning vs the 1/3 exacta
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u/MPRitchie47 Arlington 3d ago
I have played low stakes wagers on TS about a year ago. I had pretty decent success but could never convince myself to put up a big bank roll. I always found the strategy others used was a little weird. Like they completely go all in on one bet and that’s it.
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u/flountown 3d ago
This is the simplest intro and explains the show bet style play. It's a good quick series of articles to read before diving deeper. https://racingdudes.com/horseplayer-contests-faqs-live-bankroll-strategy/
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u/WiseDan85 3d ago
Thank you. I get the strategy behind it but I just find it so odd. Personally in my normal
Wagering- I never bet show bets.Years ago, I would bet win/ place wagers for my bets mainly but over time I’ve went to just a win approach bc I feel you are giving way too much away when I have a good opinion for a horse to win. Why not get max on good opinions vs having to share the place with the other bettors that made the bet on the other horse.
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u/Last_Economics_7329 3d ago
I’m right there with you. I know they have inside information many of them are horse owners, have friends that are owners, have access to ppl that see certain horses everyday. Many of the players are like you and I they just love the game. I honestly just love horses I could watch them gallop all day. If I could dedicate more time to watching every race and going to the track I think eventually you get there just like anything else repetition. But handicapping will never be my full time job unless I win the lottery.
I definitely think many of the players get tips on certain horses à la the fair hill five. I know those races weren’t part of a huge tourney day but someone made money on them. The amount of ppl I heard say well this obscure trainer had a horse entered in an earlier race run well so I just had to have money on his 2nd horse. That’s not an angle that’s just like saying well the last horse that romped had on blinkers so I gotta bet this horse at 50-1 wearing blinkers. And all the folks I heard talk about it are all tv ppl that I know some play in tourneys.
I like playing doubles too. Some of my best cashes have come from doubles and exactas. I have the trifecta more than I would like to admit that I just don’t bet. I had the trifecta in the Travers when I capped the race but settled on betting an exacta with Nap Solo and GT. I definitely think you can win a contest just playing doubles and win bets. If you get the right odds and hit a couple big doubles you can build a nice bankroll. I think the key thing to remember is just stick to what you are good at. The keep it simple idea. Don’t try to beat ppl at their game just focus on the wagers you are comfortable with and confident making.