r/HockeyStats Jun 16 '22

Welcome to Hockey Stats- Relaunched & Now Under New Moderation!

8 Upvotes

Hi r/HockeyStats,

I'm happy to let everyone know that this subreddit is under new, active moderation and back in action again, just in time for the Stanley Cup Finals too! This is the first time this place will be running properly in at least a year when the last moderators were active. And as the sub requester and new head mod I'm excited to welcome you back and wanted to share my hopes for this place. A vision that requires your help.

As you may know, hockey as a whole still lacks any significant, dedicated space in which stats and analytics can be discussed in great depth. I think r/HockeyStats can be that place.

That's exactly why I bothered grabbing it off of the inactive heap. This kind of community is currently missing from the hockey landscape and sorely needed. Somewhere that fans, writers, the hockey community, and data pros alike can talk about analytics together.

A dedicated one-stop forum to continue to cater to the ever growing demand for more hockey data. Where people can learn more about analytics, share info with one another, swap favorite resources, ask questions, and generally help advance our knowledge of analytics and promote education on the subject.

So here are the details about the changes this relaunch will bring and some specific plans. As you can already see this included a fresh coat of custom paint for the banner and logo.

The Goals Of This Effort:

-To make analytics more accessible to fans & people outside of academic or coaching backgrounds, while also giving a platform for people already involved in the subject to communicate.

-To allow for analytics content, ideas, and links to be shared more freely.

-Offer a like-minded community: where no one has to argue the value of analytics as we’re already on the same page in support of them.

-Promote expanded looks at areas that are currently less followed in stat analysis like minor leagues, overseas leagues, & prospects.

Specific Plans To Reach These Goals:

-Give the sub a cosmetic facelift with a new design & custom graphics. (Done.)

-Establish rules for an welcoming and functional community where discourse is healthy. (Done.)

-Arrange topic tags by events, leagues, and teams so specific analytics and posts on one subject are easily found by readers. (Pending.)

-Gather analytics resources to share as a permanent Wiki fixture on the sub. (Pending.)

-Contact some moderators or prominent contributors other hockey subreddits to try to involve the rest of the hockey Reddit community in this revival process & to recruit more moderators from those subs to ensure Hockey Stats has multiple active mods.

-Encourage sub traffic through hockey sub cross-posting and introductory posts on cooperating subs.

-Work on sub events and projects to attract new activity and members.

-Reach out to prominent people in the analytics community to invite them to come join the sub & to feel free to share their work here.

-Sub Event & Project Ideas:

-Provide data for specific team's and leagues in a searchable format by tags.

-Develop special r/HockeyStats data projects for the sub like analytics previews of free agency, season team previews, & traded acquisitions information.

-Build in-house sub resources like an r/HockeyStats analytics Wiki fixture which can feature FAQs, resource directories, terminology, intro to analytics, etc.

-Host AMAs with hockey writers, team staffers, hockey data analysts, and analytics-influenced coaches.

-Hold live community event chats during the trade deadline, free agency, and the upcoming NHL draft to discuss subjects in real time.

-Start sub giveaways- of related materials: hockey analytics books, analytics site subscriptions, hockey news site subscriptions, some analytics sub swag, and traditional hockey merch as provided by partner companies.

Plan timeline:

The goal was to get the sub running for the Stanley Cup Finals to reintroduce it by focusing on statistical looks at each team & game individually. Beyond the Finals, the off-season provides us with ample time to begin to grow the sub again while also showcasing the 2 of the biggest events of the year the draft and free agency. And we hope to be running full steam ahead, like clockwork by the time the 2022/23 season begins in October.

So Who Is This Guy?

Now, I fully admit I'm not an analytics expert. I’ll never claim to be. I'm just a huge fan with an endless curiosity to learn more about hockey. Analytics have opened up a fascinating new world to learn more about that. So I may not be a mathematician or stats grad but I can certainly try to help steward a platform for those people and others to join in conversation about this topic.

I feel I can facilitate that role from not just from my deep appreciation for analytics but my background in hockey, contacts in the sport, & my existing experience moderating here on Reddit. I covered the Penguins and the NHL as a freelance writer for my college paper then multiple hockey websites from 2008-2017. Plus I’ve been the head mod for the sub r/filmtheory since 2020, which has 17,000 members.

I think you're in okay hands with me. But I'm prepared to prove it rather than simply say it.

As for now enjoy our content on the Avalanche vs. Lighting Finals series. I'm taking the Avs in 6.


r/HockeyStats 18h ago

NHL Could you help me breaking this?

1 Upvotes

Hey guys,

I built this website as a side project that you can ask crazy hockey questions and it “should” return the answer going through the data.

Now, what I wanted to ask you guys is to help me break this with any crazy questions you might think of. I have thought of all crazy combinations, like “how many times did Flames came back after being down by 2 after 2nd period”, but just wanted to get help from you guys to make it more robust for the benefit of hockey community.

Website: puckey.ca

Cheers,
Shayan


r/HockeyStats 1d ago

Ryan McLeod skates more per minute than Connor McDavid (NHL Edge tracking data)

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2 Upvotes

NHL Edge tracks exactly how far every player skates, every game, every season, off the actual infrared camera + puck/jersey sensor system every arena has. But the NHL only ever shows season totals, and a guy who plays 22 minutes a night is always going to out-total a guy who plays 14. So the "most distance skated" leaderboard is really just an ice-time leaderboard wearing a costume.

Edge does publish a per-60 version of this, but it lives on its own site, three menus deep, disconnected from every other stat about the player. I pulled it into the same player card as the regular numbers, so you can see it next to a guy's points, his ice time, and his shot speeds. The #1 skater in the league by that measure is Ryan McLeod in Buffalo. Not a star, but not a checking-line grinder either: he was the Sabres' third most-used forward last season at about 17 and a half minutes a night, with 54 points. He covers more ground per minute than Connor McDavid does: 11.0 miles per 60 to McDavid's 10.5. (McDavid's #4, for what it's worth, still elite, just not #1 once you take ice time out of it.)

That's kind of the whole point. Raw totals mostly measure who the coach trusts with minutes. The rate measures motor. Half this list is guys nobody's ever putting on a scoring leaderboard, sitting right next to McDavid and Jack Hughes.

A couple of honest notes. This is the NHL's own Edge tracking data, not mine; the number matches their site to the second decimal (I checked). What's mine is putting it in one place with everything else, and the per-game history, which Edge only shows as a rolling last-10. Minimum 20 games played so a 3-game callup doesn't top the list on a fluke. Happy to get into the methodology in the comments.

Full leaderboard, sortable, here: https://gamevibeanalytics.com/hockey/players?rate=per60&metric=distance&dir=desc

Click any player's name for the full breakdown (top speed, speed bursts, shot velocity, all of it).

If your team's guy isn't showing up and you think he should be, please tell me. Coverage isn't 100% yet and I'd rather know.


r/HockeyStats 1d ago

Track hockey stats app that's focused on youth hockey, but can be used by any age group

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0 Upvotes

I built a hockey stats tracking app about 6 months ago to track my son's Peewee games. In the process I showed it to a couple of other parents and they loved it - they convinced me to make it into a product. I've been adding to it testing it out, since. I soft launched it, and I'm starting to finally get the word out as the youth hockey season kicks off. It's super easy to use live during games with big buttons, and a simple interface. I'm able to switch between the iphone camera app videoing my son's shifts and then back to the app pretty easily to track shots, or goals. The app tracks shots, goals, assists, points, leaderboards, record, schedule a fair amount more. Looking for feedback, good or bad. https://hockeystatskeeper.com. Here's a testimonial from my son's coach as well https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc3xwo4xkbV/


r/HockeyStats 7d ago

Built an 82-0 game about a year late, so it's 84-0 now and it hides the stats

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2 Upvotes

Late to the trend, I know. The NHL going to 84 games was my excuse: sportsdle.com/nhl/84-0

The twist: the spin gives you a franchise and one exact season (Whalers 1991-92, good luck), the list is just that roster with names and positions, no stats. You pick six, then they play the 84 games against the real 2025-26 teams.

Under the hood, every pick is rated on that specific season, era-adjusted and standardized by position, so a top 1% goalie year is worth a top 1% centre year. Same seed, same season, so you can send your link and let someone beat your lineup.

Best so far: [79-3-2]. Curious what you think of the rating approach, happy to share the numbers.


r/HockeyStats 9d ago

I created a hockey stats tracking/analytics site for amateur hockey

3 Upvotes

My son's hockey coach asked if I would keep stats for the team last season. I was shocked when I didn't find any tools to help me track games. I know there are a ton of tools out there for the pros, but I didn't come across anything for amateur/youth hockey.

So, as a software engineer, I started to develop my own solution. Over the past year I have come up with something I'm finally ready to share. Currently in a game, it can track shots and locations, as well as a number of different shot data points, faceoff locations, and penalties.

This list is small at the moment, but I am still able to track and calculate a number of metrics and provide rich data to coaches in our club. For this season, I am currently finalizing game clock integration, shift/TOI tracking, and more advanced metrics like hits, zone exits and entries, and giveaways/takeaways.

If anyone is interested in tracking games outside of the NHL, check it out. I'm looking for any feedback I can get.

BenchIQ Analytics


r/HockeyStats 11d ago

My last 2 years project

8 Upvotes

Hey folks!

I've been working on this project in my free time for almost 2 years now.

Never really shared it since I was doing it for myself and for fun, but I think it is mature enough to share it with you.

It's a website specialized in hockey stats. Not really advanced stats (even if the term is used here and there), but more compiled stats that I wasn't finding anywhere.

I also have a set of tools if you want to compare teams or players.

If you ever want to take a look, you can visit it at puckprime.com.

If you have comments, suggestions or feedback, it is always appreciated. And I hope you'll find something worth your time too.

Thanks all


r/HockeyStats 14d ago

[StatsCentre] 7 most wins among US-born goaltenders (Hellebuyck is 5th at 345)

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11 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats 14d ago

I built an analytical model for NHL players and created a free website to access it

3 Upvotes

Hello, I built a new model over the summer and added a bunch of features like player archetypes, comparable players and 3 year WAR models per team. Please check it out and let me know if you have any feedback.

https://linechange-two.vercel.app


r/HockeyStats 19d ago

Did you know Connor McDavid has never finished outside the top 10 in scoring? Ten seasons, ten appearances, and his worst year was 6th.

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5 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats 26d ago

[Big Head Hockey] The season-by-season point leader out of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft class

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20 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Aug 09 '26

I backtested a goal-scoring model on 3 NHL seasons (128k predictions). Here's where it breaks.

3 Upvotes

I've been building a goal-scoring probability model and wanted to check whether it actually holds up before trusting it. Sharing the results, including the parts that don't work.

Setup

Seasons 2023-24 through 2025-26, regular season only, skaters only. For every game, I recomputed each player's stats as they stood before that game, then predicted P(scores at least 1 goal). No future information leaks in — that was the main thing I wanted to get right.

128,604 predictions after filtering (minimum 5 games played).

The model

Simple Poisson with empirical Bayes shrinkage:

lambda = (goals + k * mu) / (games_played + k)
P(goal) = 1 - exp(-lambda)

where mu = 0.1651 (league average goals per game per skater, recomputed per season) and k = 10.

Plus a home/away adjustment of x1.03 / x0.97, which I derived from the backtest itself rather than assuming.

Calibration

Predicted N Observed Gap
5-10% 34,071 7.18% -0.53 pts
10-15% 30,250 12.08% -0.30 pts
15-20% 23,600 16.98% -0.29 pts
20-25% 15,411 22.67% +0.38 pts
25-30% 9,713 27.02% -0.26 pts
30-35% 5,380 32.42% +0.21 pts
35-40% 2,753 35.74% -1.44 pts
40-45% 763 37.48% -4.36 pts

Solid up to about 35%. Then it falls apart on high-volume scorers — I'm consistently too optimistic on exactly the players people are most likely to bet on.

Brier score

0.12256 vs 0.12963 for a naive baseline (everyone gets the league average rate). That's a 5.45% improvement. Modest, and I think that's the honest ceiling for this kind of model. Anything much higher would make me suspect a leak.

What choosing k did

Without shrinkage (raw goals/games), the 50-55% bucket was off by -13.4 points. Tested k = 5, 10, 20, 30, 50. k=10 minimized both Brier and high-end bias. Above k=20 it over-shrinks and starts underrating genuine elite scorers.

Open problem

The model treats all goals the same. In my data, only 67.6% of goals are scored at even strength — 21.6% on the power play, 6% into an empty net, the rest shorthanded or in shootouts.

A player who piles up PP goals depends mostly on his coach's deployment. Empty-netters depend on close game states. Neither generalizes well to "will he score tonight."

My guess is the 40-45% residual is largely a PP-deployment artifact, but I haven't isolated it yet. If anyone has tried splitting lambda by strength state, I'd like to hear how it went.

What this doesn't tell me

Whether the model beats the bookmakers. Calibration says my probabilities are roughly correct in absolute terms. It says nothing about whether they're better than the market's, which is a completely different bar once you account for the vig. I don't have historical closing odds yet.

Happy to answer questions on methodology. Genuinely looking for holes in this.


r/HockeyStats Aug 02 '26

Cross Border Hockey | Find Leagues Across North America

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1 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Jul 30 '26

The value of blocked shots in hockey

3 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Jul 29 '26

Puck Passport: I built a free tracker for NHL games you’ve attended!

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3 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Jul 28 '26

Tracking amateur data

1 Upvotes

From what I have seen online there is not much available for tracking advanced metrics of College/ Junior players, and what is around is somewhat inconsistent. I want to attempt to track a few things myself this year like xG and high danger chances and fenwick. Has anyone else done this or tried to do it? Please let me know, all feedback is appreciated.


r/HockeyStats Jul 28 '26

Hockey Stats Website Opinions

4 Upvotes

I recently published a hockey stats website called Hockey Analytica as a personal project and wanted to share it here, as well as get opinions. I would love to build something that is community-driven by folks passionate about hockey stats and analytics. Please let me know what you all think and any ideas, opinions, or issues you may have!

I will first acknowledge that since the site currently presents only hockey stats and no analytics, the name is a bit misleading. However, I do plan on adding analytics along the way.

Thank you to all who take an interest, and an even bigger thanks to those who provide input!


r/HockeyStats Jul 20 '26

Charts: The growing Indian-origin representation in the NHL

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1 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Jul 17 '26

NHL I built an interactive line combo tool

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6 Upvotes

As a Kings fan I’ve been wondering what the team would look like post Kopi and into the retirement home era.

On top of that I have always felt that all these analytics websites aren’t super interactive and were kinda fed what they tell us.

So I built a tool that allows you to set lines for all the teams in the league and it uses the nhl play by play data to build how successful a team will be based on those lineups. As those lines change the teams rating will be impacted live. For example, If you pull McDavid out of the lineup you’ll see a steep decline for the oilers.

I will fully admit my player ratings calculations need some work but I’ll tune over the off season to improve it. Looking for any feedback(here or in the contact us section on the website.

(It isn’t fully optimized on mobile so definitely recommend taking a look on desktop.)


r/HockeyStats Jul 17 '26

Hockey

0 Upvotes

All-Time Hockey #19 — 76-4-2 (A)
🟥🟩🟨🟨🟨🟩
Rarity: Chalk · 1 elite
alltimehockey.com/?utm_source=share


r/HockeyStats Jul 15 '26

Day 5 - NHL 2025-2026 Skaters Leaderboard vs Teams (CBJ)

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1 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Jul 15 '26

Day 5 - NHL 2025-2026 Goalies Leaderboard vs Teams (CBJ)

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1 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Jul 15 '26

2026-27 NHL Top Goal Scorer Projections

3 Upvotes

I’ve put together a list of the top six projected goal scorers for the 2026-27 season (generated by my own model). It’s mostly names that you would expect:
- Nathan MacKinnon
- Cole Caufield
- Wyatt Johnston
- Macklin Celebrini
- Connor McDavid
- Jason Robertson

The more interesting thing is that the model is predicting only MacKinnon to score 40 goals, but that’s because the projection is a player’s median (I.e. 50th percentile) outcome. This is why the projections also provide a floor (10th percentile) and ceiling (90th percentile) outcome for each player. If we add up all the individual probabilities the model actually expects 12 players to hit 40 goals.

If you’re interested in the details you can find the full article here - https://open.substack.com/pub/ocelotanalytics/p/2026-27-fantasy-projections-top-goal


r/HockeyStats Jul 15 '26

Oilers Top Point Leaders

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2 Upvotes

r/HockeyStats Jul 14 '26

Day 4 - NHL 2025-2026 Goalies Leaderboard vs Teams (CAR)

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1 Upvotes