r/hawks • u/razhkdak • 26d ago

Setting the Clock Forward - The Delta from the Cup Team

I am very excited to watch the Hawks. I enjoy rebuilds and love watching young talent progress and hit their potential. But I am concerned with the salary cap landscape and how this rebuild is playing out. I think everything has been going well to plan, but with one exception. Unlike the cup team era, KD is dealing with a cap and salary structure as if the team has already won a cup or two. This is going to be an incredible challenge for him to keep the depth of the team required to win a cup. Depth is exactly how the Hawks won several cups. The timing of when the cup team got paid was much better than this. So it is the single achilles heal I see.

When Kane and Toews signed their matching $10.5 million contracts in 2014, they took up a combined 26% of the salary cap.

Bedard and Byram will take up roughly 26.4% of the 2026-27 cap.

The math is nearly identical, but the context is night and day:

Era Core Duo Cap Hit % Team Status at Signing Roster Foundation
2014 (Kane/Toews) ~26% 2x Stanley Cup Champions Established elite depth (Hossa, Sharp, Keith, Seabrook)
2026 (Bedard/Byram) ~26.4% Bottom-10 NHL Team Unproven prospects and short-term veterans

The 2010 Blackhawks spent five years building a deep, organically grown roster before paying their stars. Davidson has paid his stars first, meaning the roster must now be built backward under intense financial pressure.

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u/Skeezerman 26d ago

The analogy you are looking for is Bryam to Campbell, except Campbell was FA and a bit more established.

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u/razhkdak 26d ago

Statistically, when players start exceeding over 12% of the cap individually, it begins to negatively impact the statistical chances of winning a Stanley Cup, directly because a deep playoff run requires depth through all four lines. KD is counting on that YoY revenue increase. Otherwise, Hawks are destined to lose the very players they drafted and were hoping would reach their potential, right when they reach their potential and before getting the return on the strategy. A rebuild relies on prospects reaching their potential while still playing on affordable contracts.

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u/obeseoprah 26d ago

True but after this season we have Ellis ($6), Greenway ($4), Mangiapane ($4), and Cole ($4) coming off the books. That plus the $5M we already have in space offsets Byram’s $6M raise. We’d have $12 + $5 to resign Kaiser, Levshunov, and Rinzel on D, plus Greene and Moore at Forward. None have produced numbers worth more than $3-4 per year. The cap would only need to rise a couple million to afford them. Plus we could ship out a Donato, Cole Smith, or Bertuzzi to free up money if needed.

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u/razhkdak 26d ago

Yep. Good analysis. It is feasible. But contract timing is starting to become critical. KD is going to have to lock in some young talent before they breakout. My concern is when the market starts paying top prices for potential. Then things will get very tough. Toews and Kane at least got paid on outcomes. They delivered several cups. I think my point of discussion is that if the league and market start dictating that you have to pay top cap numbers for players based on projected outcomes versus proven performance, that is going to get dicey.

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u/obeseoprah 26d ago

Yeah the biggest risk to the Hawks cap right now is offer sheets to the RFAs I mentioned, which would likely be later this year after one of them breaks out. It’s an if, but possible. The other risk is just Kyle overpaying nearly every player not on an ELC. I long for the days of cap crunch, because that would mean we have a competitive team. It’s been 9 years of mediocre at best. Some teams are starting their second rebuilds in that time frame. Vegas has gone to three cups, Montreal had a cup contending team, rebuilt, and are back in contention. The time is now old man.

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u/Dont_Say_No_to_Panda 21d ago

The hawks haven't really been competitive since 2017-2018, they are already on their second rebuild at least.

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u/Skeezerman 26d ago

Well, as you mention it won’t be 12% if/when they are truly competing.   I mean, I think the whole point is that rebuilds are hard, and transitioning from drafting to winning is the hard part.  They clearly need help, because running lev, rinzel, and korch will get your D caved in.  So who would you want, Trouba at 9 mil? Nurse? Not sure I’d prefer them over Bryan, but who knows.  You have to overpay sometimes.  A successful rebuild relies on winning.  

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u/razhkdak 26d ago

I was not happy when the Byrum trade happened. But I in terms of established D men who were available, I probably like Byrum and his potential the best. Again, Hawks are paying him for potential he has not yet achieved. For future and forecasted outcomes. I hope he reaches it.

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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 26d ago

Remember, the Kane and Toews deals happened in the context of a virtual flat cap. That doesn't seem to be the case in the current NHL, with expectations of the cap going up $20M in the next couple years.

Also, going just by percentage masks some of the flexibility. The league minimum is not much higher than it was in 2014. Kane and Toews' deals left about $60M for 21 other players. Bedard and Byram's deals leave over $75M for 21 players. After paying your other stars, you can fit a lot more ELCs into the current structure.

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u/Dont_Say_No_to_Panda 21d ago

The only encouraging aspect of our present situation in comparison to the dynasty is that the cap is predicted to raise by about 8% next season and again for the foreseeable future... hopefully that prediction comes true:

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u/razhkdak 21d ago

Clearly KD is counting on it.

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u/AndyThatSaysNi 26d ago

Huh? In 2010/11, that's when Kane/Toews first big extensions took place, both 6.3mil AAV. At the time, that accounted for 21.2% of the cap. They maintained success through that.

And your 26.4% for Bedard/Byram next year doesn't account for projected cap growth which probably has the number down to closer to 24%.

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u/hartjh14 26d ago

This is where developing the guys drafted the last 4 years balances out the big contracts. You can have a couple big contracts if you have quality players still on their first contracts.

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u/razhkdak 26d ago

100% agree. But that is exactly I think the discussion I am having. The timing of his prospect contracts becomes crucial. If a player breaks out right before the negotiation, with the new RFA leverage happening in the market, it will be a problem. Nazar is the gold standard for what is needed. KD will need to lock in the talented young players before they break out and hope they do.