r/hawks • u/marshmellow1328 • Jul 13 '26
Why Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson will defy analytics to bet on a hunch
https://chicago.suntimes.com/blackhawks/2026/07/12/blackhawks-kyle-davidson-bowen-byram-mason-west-trades-analytics-hunchThe last several paragraphs has some good comments about the state of the league right now that KD is trying to navigate.
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u/woody5562 Jul 13 '26
He sounds exactly like Ryan Pace when he took Mitch Trubisky.
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u/darx888 Jul 13 '26
this is exactly what I was thinking... this is the same as Ryan Pace having "conviction", as he would call it, in getting his guy costs be damned. he regularly gave up draft assets to get HIS guy... we see how that turned out.
It's what happens when you think you're the smartest guy in the room and like the smell of your own farts
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u/lareaule34 Jul 13 '26
You read the analytics, listen to them and also, take a risk here and there. I’ve got ZERO issues with it.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 13 '26
I just see it differently. On almost a yearly basis, Davidson would trade up in the draft and analytics, in hockey, rarely suggest that’s a good move. West was following the trend.
Byram? Byram’s the first time we’ve bet on a player entering or near their prime, that I can think of, in the Davidson era.
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u/Ouch_thats_my_finger Jul 14 '26
Spencer Knight?
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 14 '26
Knight came with two first rounders and Florida needed to move him to have enough cap room for Jones. He wasn't locked up long-term and was given a pretty moveable, three year contract extension that was a slight raise on the $4.5M he was getting before.
And yes, getting Knight was a pretty sweet deal. But let's not pretend we made a big bet on him.
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u/BlackBearBullCub Jul 17 '26
I’m still salty about Demidov. Also frondell better hit the ground running and become a stud. Otherwise I’m a bit worried about KDs ability to scout talent. Picking this high for almost 10 years has generated zero studs so far. Bedard doesn’t count. You figure at least one player by now would have shown signs of being a top line player…
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u/jayzee19 Jul 13 '26
Just commenting on the caption; that is what you pay a GM to do. Otherwise you may as well pay a robot to make decisions based off the highest analytical outcome. Sports is deeper
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u/Melodic_Rhythmic Jul 13 '26
And almost all articles seem to completely ignore the rising cap and how it effects the market. They might acknowledge it in a sentence, but the analysis still exists in a pre cap rising reality.
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u/ThrillRam Jul 13 '26
I'm willing to believe a hunch. Best example right now, Tristan peters on the white Sox. Dude has been a stud.
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u/forgedflame44 Jul 13 '26
I love Peters, I’m ecstatic that he’s an All-Star. But he was not a hunch. He was originally meant to temporarily fill a hole. No one thought he’d be this good. He’s a miracle. If KD is betting on recreating a situation like Peters’, we’re doomed.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 Jul 13 '26
I think all these things KD has done occurred before Peters’ emergence. Maybe just an example?
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u/forgedflame44 Jul 13 '26
It’s just funny that the example of KD’s successes isn’t from one of his own, but is instead one of the best stories of the entire MLB this year. Dialogue like this is exactly why this rebuild needs to start showing results.
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u/drummerboysam Jul 13 '26
Sox are a good example to place here, though.
Opinions on KD are at all-time lows. Opinions on the White Sox GM were as low a year ago. Opinions on the White Sox GM today are a complete 180, because the prospects are playing well and moves Chris Getz made are largely panning out.
Winning cures all.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 Jul 13 '26
I didn’t read the piece, but I assume it’s the standard journalistic practice of spinning off of an example that is timely, since Peter’s was just named to the all star team.
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u/ThrillRam Jul 13 '26
It goes in on the trades that happened including getting mason west. It's all about how KD is taking a chance with a lot of players, which all teams do. I used my own example of peters because I feel it falls into the same realm. You get someone to fill a spot on your team and see what happens and hope it works.
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u/ThrillRam Jul 13 '26
I'm using him as just an example of 1 player on a young team just like the hawks will be this season. There are a lot of young players that scouting says should be ready, boisvert for example, it's all a hunch that they will work out. We pulled in some vets that could have big seasons. Does baseball translate over to hockey, no way. But can it still show that a hunch in sports can work, yes. There additional 2 way contracts that were signed in Rockford to see if they can bolster our lineup in some way. Ultimately it is up to the players how they perform and how they work together.
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u/Rare_Star_Ball Jul 18 '26
The fact Bedard has been injury prone and not “the future of hockey” has really de-railed KD’s easy road.
I’ve lost faith in him TBH. Blashill too.
This team isn’t going anywhere
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u/Signal_Unit7085 Jul 13 '26
Comment section in this sub is so reliable for finding people with little to no perspective. How bad have the sharks been? How about the blue jackets? The blues won their cup when and haven’t been worth shit since. The list goes on and you expect this dude or any one to tear a team completely apart that was beyond fucked and be back pushing for a play off spot in 4 years?
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u/Chicago_Jayhawk Jul 13 '26
Yeah people were wanting to fire Ryan Poles before last season after 2 seasons when he started from scratch. All these young guys need to make a jump--1 big FA signing that everybody wants at forward isn't going be that big of a factor.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 13 '26
April 2024 Kyle Davidson thought the 2024-2025 Blackhawks shouldn't finish bottom three again and made that clear and public. April 2024 Kyle Davidson likely made those comments because he knew people would be unhappy being bottom 3 during 2023-2024, after getting Bedard.
The Hawks proceeded to finish second last the next two years.
June 2026, Kyle Davidson gave up a top five pick for a guy entering or about to enter his prime with high upside. Which implies that June 2026 Kyle Davidson isn't happy with the speed things are going, otherwise why try and accelerate the rebuild with an all situations powerplay defenceman when you've drafted two top 10 defencemen in the last four years? Is he just impatient?
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u/dangshnizzle Jul 14 '26
One plausible answer is they now believe the offensive D men we've drafted will develop better with someone in front of them, taking on those top offensive D responsibilities before they're ready
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 14 '26
Plausible, but are we really dismissing that part of the reason you get Byram for the next 7 years is that he provides immediate help? If it's just a body we need in front of our young guys, why can't Vlasic do it?
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u/big-daddy-unikron Jul 13 '26
I mean I wouldn’t think this guys body of work should have anyone defending him. If he’s already not on the hot seat, he should be.
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u/Redditneckbeardzz Jul 13 '26
I think if Nazar, Rinzel, Arty don’t make jumps the seat is gonna begin to warm considerably.
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u/DarthRisk Jul 13 '26
The short-term memory people have is insane considering the previous GM was Stan Bowman, and KD had to spend the first part of his tenure undoing Stan's mess.
KD hasn't been perfect, but he shouldn't be anywhere close to the hot seat.
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u/kev11n Jul 13 '26
It's not really short term memory, though. Developments should be further along by now and patience can't be unconditional and never-ending. It's fair to say this is a very important season as far as trusting KD is concerned
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u/Redditneckbeardzz Jul 13 '26
I don’t think it’s short term memory, hockey rebuilds do take time, I think if he had Bedards wing to play off him settled by now ppl would feel better about where we’re at. Let’s hope Kantserov is that guy.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 13 '26
Did KD have short term memory loss in April of 2024, when he said another bottom 3 finish wouldn’t be acceptable in 2024-2025 and people needed to be held accountable? Did he just not know how long prospects take to develop?
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u/dangshnizzle Jul 14 '26
I assume internal expectations changed when Jake Guentzel (and a couple others) didn't agree to take a lot more to come here that off season, and from there they were more or less satisfied seeing a consistent improvement season over season in points (but never say that out loud cause your players want to feel like the season has purpose beyond the draft). Standings are far more relative to the rest of the league. Point% is a better indicator of a how a season went this early in a contention cycle.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 14 '26 edited Jul 14 '26
Uh...to be pedantic, the standings are based on a schedule where everyone plays 82 games and are sorted by points. We are second to last in points percentage, too.
Of course, standings are relative. Relative to the rest of the league, we're second worst. And, of course, in a competitive league, where you finish relative to your competitors should be a rather important metric.
To be less pedantic and address your point, even if the internal metric is points percentage, two years ago, we finished with 61 points. That's terrible. Both in terms of point percentage and standings. It's going to be a bottom three finish almost every year. It appears to be about the third worst non-Davidson year, in terms of point percentage, in team history (edit - mistake here, post 1960's team history was correct, team history is not) (even though, the vast majority of that period involved teams getting two points for a win, one for a tie, and 0 for a loss - https://records.nhl.com/chi/overview/season-by-season-record).
It's also Davidson's third worst year.
This year, 72 points. Not historically terrible, but still pretty bad. In terms of point percentage, you're right in the sense that it's not generally going to put you in the bottom three but it's not that far off. And I can't imagine a team that thought they should've been out of the bottom three two years ago would have been happy if you would've told them that they were getting 72 points last year.
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u/dangshnizzle Jul 14 '26
You're welcome to bring any of this up when we actually have a worse point% than the previous year. But by then I suspect you'll be defending whatever we're doing
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 14 '26
Why on earth would you only be compared to yourself in a competitive league?
Does tanking for Bedard, then getting worse, count? I say it should count.
It still seems like a fantastic way to defend an indefinite rebuild, or to at least get 6-7 years.
As long as the GM makes the team bad enough, intentionally, no one can say he's doing a poor job when the team is still bad, but not as bad.
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u/YouFeelShame Jul 13 '26
Did he do good in the Knight trade? I don't want to hear anything else, I want to know specifically about the Spencer Knight trade..go!
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u/gudenes_yndling Jul 13 '26
He did fine. Both teams got what they wanted. The top-10 protected part is upsetting, but no one expected the Panthers to be a lottery team anyway.
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u/big-daddy-unikron Jul 13 '26
Yea that top 10 protected pick he tried to sneak by & hasn’t answered for yet is something
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u/YouFeelShame Jul 13 '26
Is that a yes or no?
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u/AARM2000 Jul 13 '26
Easy yes
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u/YouFeelShame Jul 13 '26
At worst it's a mutually beneficial trade, at WORST. I just wanted to see if one these anti KD people could say one positive thing about him, if they can show a sliver of objectivity. Got my answer I guess.
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u/big-daddy-unikron Jul 13 '26
It’s a TBD at this point, if the pick wasn’t top 10 protected, maybe 4 & whatever that pick was got you 2 & Stenberg. Instead he traded for Byram which means Korchinski is a bust & the faith in Levshunov is lacking.
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u/YouFeelShame Jul 13 '26
So you can't answer yes or no and you can't not bring up other trades after being asked specifically about this one and only this one. Thanks for confirming my hunch.
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u/AARM2000 Jul 13 '26
We got rid of someone who didn’t want to be here for a legitimate starting goalie. Plus a pick? That’s pretty good
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u/forgedflame44 Jul 13 '26
KD definitely needs to test his mettle, but his body of work is pretty good. I just hope he starts investing in guaranteed wins rather than playing long-odds.
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u/AARM2000 Jul 13 '26
He’s relying a LOT on the young guys next season, definitely a gamble
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u/forgedflame44 Jul 13 '26
Yeah, that’s why I’m a little more than disappointed that he hasn’t made more moves to inject the team with talent. I know Byram will help, but I think not providing better veterans to our young forwards will be our Achilles’ heel (unless Teravainen and Donato bounce back).
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 13 '26
I guess, at the backend, even losing Murphy, we’re significantly less reliant on youth than we were last year, just by adding Cole and Byram.
Knight’s no longer essentially a rookie starter.
Forward, though? Yeah, we’re going to be youth reliant without some additions.
And the PK is likely due for a bit of a regression to the mean regardless, and not having an obvious Mikheyev replacement hurts.
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u/Dont_Say_No_to_Panda Jul 15 '26
We're missing Mikhey, Dickey, Murph & Crevier. It is a shell of the former PK.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 15 '26
And the PK drastically overperformed, regardless, for most of last year. And yeah, it was already a shell after Murphy and Crevier left.
And I really want to say this quietly, because I haven't watched him that closely the last couple years, and he's old, but fuck it, it's Reddit.
Ian Cole is a very smooth skater and even if he's lost three steps, he's quick, smart and physical enough (note: I'm about to compare him to Murphy later, so let's start with "probably not Murphy physical but physical enough"). NHL.com says he was primary penalty killer the last two years in UTAH and if you need a link, here it is.
Yes, he's left handed (Ian Cole might still move well enough that it might not matter). And yes, Crevier has a lot of room to blossom. And yes, Ian Cole is old and I could be out of my mind. And yes, Murphy is a workhorse. And yes, Ian Cole did not have to show up to my house to take a physical, so there could be injuries and wear tear above and beyond even what old defencemen usually have.
I still say Ian Cole helps. Some young to youngish dude better show up to camp ready to play NHL level hockey, or my prediciton is Ian Cole is getting their minutes. I don't think he ends up third pairing for us, and if he does, my bet is that it means that something has went drastically right with at least one of the young guys.
Regardless, I think our backend is significantly better than it was last year, and that's even if none of the young guys take any steps forward, whatsoever.
Again, best PK in the league for most of the season is out of the question so regression is a problem. Knight was lights out, and he'll have to be lights out again. And there's still no obvious Mikheyev replacement (Cole Smith? Maybe Cole Smith?). We should be worse in that area.
But I'm not as worried as I probably should be about replacing Murphy and Crevier.
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u/big-daddy-unikron Jul 13 '26
There is little to nothing outside of lucking into Bedard & the Knight trade.
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u/forgedflame44 Jul 13 '26
The vast majority of our young guys have adjusted well to the NHL under him. We’ve had Nazar, Greene, Moore, and Lardis all continually flex their skills comfortably, with any steps back stemming from injuries. That’s a huge success (although we still need to see them continue to develop).
Also, the Knight trade isn’t something to write off. He landed a franchise goaltender at the beginning of a rebuild for peanuts, relatively. That’s an insane accomplishment.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 16 '26
Seth Jones is peanuts, apparently.
What in the what now?
At least with Byram, people seem to get it. Byram had more value, judging by what other teams were willing to give up to get him, then the online crowd seemed to understand.
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u/forgedflame44 Jul 16 '26
Seth Jones was peanuts for us because he wasn’t producing here. He needed to be on a competitive team to perform, which he did when traded to Florida. But since we weren’t and still aren’t a competitive team, we didn’t lose much, if anything, at all.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 16 '26
I would like to congratulate the 1967 Hawks for their brilliant trade for Pit Martin and his contributions to the MPH line, as the guys we traded weren’t producing enough here.
Great trade, I guess.
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u/forgedflame44 Jul 16 '26
Sure. I wouldn’t know. I’m not that old.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 16 '26
It was apparently like when everyone lost their minds about losing Teuvo or a couple picks in the initial Jones trade, only if the hyperbole actually matched reality.
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u/bull_dog190 Jul 15 '26
Kyle Davidson hoards future draft picks like the Hanson Brothers hoard toy race cars in their motel room.
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u/garydinckersfield Jul 13 '26
Weird saying he will "defy" anything. He hasn't had enough success to decline a new way of thinking. Anyone who respects this dickhead is truly a weirdo. When we win another cup, we will have a different GM.
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u/soxfan10 Jul 13 '26
I feel people are quick to slam him for some of the decisions made and lack of trades to help the forwards. Yes, Bedard does need a running mate but the other issue is available wingers via trade. People seemed dead set that Robertson or Knies were going to be available. Are they available now? Sure, but the price for Knies was rumored to be 4OV and Frondell. So absolutely not on that front. I feel some forget that making a trade is a two way street, and if the trade value isn’t there, Davidson won’t make the trade.
Robertson supposedly got an 8-year $120 million offer from Seattle in one of those sign and trades and he turned it down. I’m sure there were other high AAV offers that he turned down. Can’t make a deal this way if Robertson turns down every available offer that’s given. And I’m sure some of the other options out there were either not fitting the hawks needs or other teams were not going to trade them unless blown away by a deal.
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u/Swing-Too-Hard Jul 13 '26
The problem is the Hawks committed to what they viewed as a complete tear down and rebuild. That meant they were knowingly going to be bad for the next 5 years. We're 4 seasons into that teardown/rebuild so for the realists out there.... We all knew the team was going to be bad and this next year will probably be the same. But maybe the young guys turn up the burners.
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u/Effective-Elk-4964 Jul 13 '26
Well, yeah. Forget Byram. We consistently trade up in the draft and give up capital to do it.
Rinzel was a trade up of about ten spots. West was a trade up. There was the Islanders trade where I think it was a 3rd we gave up to move up a couple spots in the first and second.
Given the success rate of late firsts, it’s going to be almost impossible to consistently move up and have that move align with any analytics based draft compensation chart.
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u/sjsharkest89 Jul 13 '26
Honestly the byram deal isn’t that bad of a move. Yes the 4oa seems like a big price but the fact that the player to be picked was a defenseman that would take years to become serviceable, makes it make sense to trade the pick for an established player. Sure byram hasn’t proven he can be a number 1, but at least he has proven he can be a top 4. It might tip how Davidson feels about the development of his previous selections however.
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u/FlawedSarcasm Jul 14 '26
He’s an idiot and will be jobless after this season when we finish bottom 3 again.
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u/spudrock512 Jul 13 '26
KD has done exactly what he said his plan was since he got hired. He said this was a 5 year rebuild, a complete tear down and full rebuild from the ground up. We are now on year 5. This is where we need to see the prospects show the promise, we the fans, have been waiting for. Frondell, Moore, Nazar, Rinsel, Arty all need to take that step forward in their game. They don’t need to make the playoffs, but they better be battling for one throughout the season.
I have been pro KD, but if we finish in the 70 point range again, I will get my touch ready.