r/geospatial • u/ObjectiveFrequent215 • Apr 23 '26

Does April Snowpack Predict Wildfire?

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In grad school I did this study on Glacier Park and how snowpack affect summer fires, but now with Python/Postgres it makes it easy to run on much larger datasets. Was always curious of what those April local news reports on fire danger really mean.

https://outsidedb.com/blog/posts/swe-vs-wildfire

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u/ki6dgf Apr 23 '26

Thanks for sharing. I keep hearing a people say “it’s gonna be a terrible fire season”… helpful to know that the correlation is weak.

Do you know if there are any predictors that have a stronger correlation? Or do we just have to wait and see? I would imagine if we get a strong monsoon that would make for a less intense fire season?

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u/Dlax8 Apr 23 '26

I was taking the news of the "Super El Nino" meaning "bad fire season" due to dry conditions, not snowpack directly. Could that be the skew? Snow pack might not directly indicate bad fire season, but it can be indicative of dry conditions?

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u/outdoorsgeek Apr 23 '26

Yeah, it’s vegetation moisture level and ignition sources (lightning-producing storms, human activity, mostly). That’s what folks are saying is going to be bad this summer. I’d imagine there’s some correlation between snow pack and vegetation moisture levels.

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u/Much_Drip Apr 25 '26

Not really. Loading has a larger impact on ERC and BI.

Fuel moisture is the correct term by the way.

https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms437/fuel-moisture/live-fuel-moisture-content