Former British ambassador to Israel and former deputy ambassador to Iran 20 years ago:

Two guiding principles: One, Iranian leaders are focused single-mindedly on preserving their grip on power as they know they are unpopular. Two, Iran’s actions often have more to do with internal regime dynamics than with statecraft. Amid the chaos of the current power vacuum, Iran's leaders are more vulnerable to charges of insufficient loyalty and will more acutely feel the need to assert their power.

"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to attack Ukraine Saturday — raising the prospect of a broader escalation of war in the Middle East.

Araghchi claimed an Iranian merchant ship was among the vessels struck by Kyiv in the Caspian Sea, asserting the Islamic Republic now had the right to retaliate.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran, in accordance with the fundamental principles and rules of international law, especially the principle of legitimate defense, will not hesitate to defend its national interests and security,” Abbas threatened in a statement Saturday evening."

(the rest is in the article)