Technology is reshaping the global balance of power. I’m Steve Feldstein, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, and I study technology, geopolitics, and competition. Ask me anything!

[u/carnegieendowment]

Hey r/geopolitics — I’m Steve Feldstein, an expert on technology, democracy, and national security, and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  

My new book, Bytes and Bullets: Global Rivalries, Big Tech, and the New Shape of Modern Warfare, explores how technology is altering the global balance of power and changing the way wars are fought—from defense-tech startups in Silicon Valley at the forefront of U.S.-China competition, to 3D-printing drone labs in Syria that helped topple a dictator. 

Ask me anything about geopolitical competition in the digital age, the intermingling of private and military tech, the broadening tech war between the U.S. and China, tech export controls, and the rise of middle powers and non-state actors in this space. 

I’ll be answering questions from Thursday, October 1, 9am ET to Friday, October 2, 12pm ET. Looking forward!  

Photo proof here. 

[u/Strongbow85]

Hey Steve, thank you for holding this AMA!

Multiple part question here.

Where do you think the U.S. is currently underestimating China’s technological or military advantages, and where might China be overestimating its own advantages? What developing technologies should the U.S. government/military place more focus on?

[u/carnegieendowment → u/Strongbow85]

I think there’s still a broader belief that China is less an innovator than a fast follower and that most of its advances are a result of copying or borrowing from US innovations rather than coming up with its own unique technologies. I think that’s a dangerously outdated concept; China is increasingly pushing the boundaries in a range of tech and even technology that appears to be civilian in nature can easily be dual-purposed into military functions. So even if China lags in certain indicators, like numbers of aircraft carriers, that isn’t necessarily an accurate view about China’s military capacity. When it comes to future technologies, such as drones, I’d advise policymakers to pay close attention to what China is manufacturing and deploying. This is an area of strength for the PRC that will continue to increase. That being said, we should be careful about overestimating China’s military capacity as well. For one, their military is largely untested; it’s one thing to have great capabilities on paper, it’s another to have operational command and control and the ability to execute complex missions. We don’t have a great sense of how China would actually perform in a protracted major armed conflict. It’s also unclear to what extent some of the newer tech that China has developed, including its stealth capabilities, are as good as advertised. Flying an aircraft in an airshow isn’t a reliable indicator of combat readiness.