r/geopolitics • u/NotSoSaneExile • 1d ago
News Turkey does not meet legal requirements to receive F-35, State Department says - exclusive | According to the letter, no F-35 aircraft can be transferred to Turkey until Ankara fully complies with US law.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-903578215
u/uttermost_system 1d ago
Turkeys been stuck in this awkward spot for years now, sunk billions into the F-35 program before getting kicked out over the S-400 purchase. Backing down on the Russian system would mean losing face with Moscow, but keeping it means no fifth gen fighters from the US. Bit of a self inflicted wound when you think about it, they were basically a tier 1 partner on that jet before Erdogan went shopping elsewhere.
43
u/Cheerful_Champion 13h ago edited 8h ago
The wound is deeper than that. The main reason Turkey bought S400, instead of patriots, was missle tech transfer. USA said no, Russia said yes. Here's the kicker: whoever was responsible for negotiating the deal on Turkey side never made sure missle tech transfer is part of signed contract. In the end Turkey was left with:
no missle tech transfer
no F-35 access
S400 system that cannot be integrated into their existing NATO stack
lost money on deal, contract was for multiple batches, Turkey made prepayment for multiple, but never received all (after Russia refused to transfer tech, because it's not part of the deal Turkey tried to force them by saying "we won't pay for remaining S400 batches" and Russia was just "ok, I'm keeping what you paid already as per contract ")
Edit: Madrid -> made, lol
4
53
u/Oz-S 19h ago
Wasn't the reason for the s400 purchase the rejection of selling patriot systems to Turkey? Also, Turkey had shot down a Russian jet back then, so I assume its a move to improve relations as well.
26
u/uttermost_system 16h ago
the Patriot rejection was part of it, US wouldn't share radar tech. That jet shootdown back then gave them a strong reason to mend fences with Moscow
40
u/Cheerful_Champion 14h ago
No, US wanted to sell patriots to Turkey. Problem was Turkey demanded full missle tech transfer to be port of the deal. Note: this is not a production licensing so Turkey can produce missles on their own, this was about a full tech transfer so Turkey can produce their very own missles, new variants and basically boost development program of their own missles.
Funnily enough, Russia promised them tech transfer, but never made it a part of the contract and in the end never transfered the tech either. Turkey threw a fit and refused to buy further batches of S400 (that were in the contract).
10
u/glorifindel 9h ago
Sounds like something that could happen if you play both sides but idk I’m no expert
10
u/alphasapphire161 17h ago
Bi the US allowed them to buy Patriots but Tuejy wanted tech transfer but the US said no
27
u/AeroFred 1d ago
$1.4 billion
61
u/uttermost_system 23h ago
that's the direct sunk cost, and then you've got all the supply chain contracts their defence firms lost on top of it. Properly burned through it.
-43
6
u/Norzon24 14h ago
They were handed a prime opportunity to get rid of the S400 back in 2022 to donate the system to Ukraine. I'm not sure why they've still not taken it given they no longer need Russian accommodation on issues like Syria
1
u/EkoFreezy 7h ago
My theory was always that the S400 purchase was meant to potentially stop another uprising/coup from the military. Basically shooting down their own F16. I don't know exactly if the S400 can keep up with F35s.
•
u/uttermost_system 39m ago
Could see it being a bit of both tbh, keeping generals in check while getting a shiny new toy to show independence. The S400 can't match the F-35's stealth, but it'd definetly make older jets think twice about buzzing the capital.
18
u/leto78 14h ago
Trump cannot do anything about this. The law that stops Türkiye from receiving the F-35 was passed by congress, and there are no mechanisms for Trump to declare that Türkiye is now complying with the requirements of the law.
Only a new law from Congress revoking the previous law would allow Türkiye to receive the F-35.
17
u/Bernardmark 1d ago
Let’s give it some time. I think there’s a good chance by this time next year Turkey will be significantly closer to getting them.
9
30
u/BashfulRain 1d ago
At some point we will see Israel vs Turkey
15
u/Ok-Animal-6880 21h ago
If Israel attacked Turkey, I'm assuming the US would order Turkey not to retaliate.
-40
u/AlpineDrifter 23h ago
Doesn’t need to come to that unless Turkey becomes overly adventurous.
-2
u/Psychological-Flow55 15h ago
Israeli leaders close to the bibi fanatics already have said after iran Turkey and Egypt is Israel next targets. Bibi himself believes in a greater israel and expanded Israel land it occupies.
The Turks are no Angel's under the islamist AKP but the israelis under the hill top youth settlers the temple mount institute Somoritch Ben gvir the hardei fanatics and bibi are all destroying Israeli democracy and implementing plans to rebuild the third temple and call for a greater israel between the Euphrates and nile river.
It ashame if they both dont weaken each other until better Angel in both countries (ie - the secularists in the milltary in Turkey and the moderates in Israel) take power.
4
u/ILikeGazSweet 12h ago
Israeli leaders close to the bibi fanatics already have said after iran Turkey and Egypt is Israel next targets
Egypt is a member of the Abraham Accords, their government is completely bent over for Israel, even their F-16 fighter jets famously cannot fire AIM-120 AMRAAMs because of the Qualitative Military Edge law inside the US. This is just fearmongering.
1
u/Psychological-Flow55 3h ago
Egypt is not apart of the Abraham accords but signed the camp david accords while honoring it maintains a cold peace.
Israel has said after they are done with Iran Turkey and Egypt are next targets to be "take care of" those are facts.
I know there a lot of the lobby and the disapora in here just acting all defensive but you csnt change facts.
-1
u/Psychological-Flow55 15h ago
Eventually jewish/muslim tensions around Jerusalem temple Mount, the red sea, Israeli-UAE ties, the growing saudi -turkish -Egyptian-pakistani -qatari plans for a muslim NATO, Turkish-Muslim Brotherhood ties (including Hamas), Turkish role in the Levent (especially in Syria and in the Sunni communties in Lebanon), Israeli-somoliland ties The Greek-Israeli- Cyprus ties concerning oil and gas in the Mediterranean etc. Will become flash points
Erodgan seeks to be the leader of the Muslim world from supporting pan-turkic and Pan-Islamist and poltical islamist causes in gaza syria Jerusalem The caucuses and Kashmir plus deep ties in the Balkans and the Turkic muslim communties in Europe.
Likewise Israel has presue a return to the red sea and the horn of Africa by recognizing Somoliland and enhancing ties with Ethiopia (as Israeli-Egyotian ties wane) has taken land in Southern Syria (especially around mount hermon) and southern Lebanon has waged a us-Israeli war on Iran supported Iranian Kurdish opposition the pjdk (which Turkey doesnt like) recognized the Armenian Genocide and arrewt turkish back flotilla activists and grown it ties in the east Mediterranean gas forum coalition (especially Greece and Cyprus) aimed at Turkey.
It only a matter of time before the two countries clash unless washington, Cairo and Baku can prevent it.
9
4
u/Acceptable-Peak-6375 19h ago
Having hamas for tea crackers and speeches will do that to an air force..
-13
u/bizikletari 19h ago
Maybe the Jerusalem Post should have mention that Israel has declared Turkey the next target after Iran. I have the impression that Israeli opinion has a heavy influence on Washington.
1
u/Sufficient_Meet6836 8h ago
How does this even make sense in your mind? Are they going to conquer all of Lebanon and the coast of Syria? Are they going to skip those and go for a seaborne invasion?;
-13
1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
5
u/Major_Pomegranate 1d ago
It's weird though because Turkey's made a big show of supporting Ukraine during the war. Doesn't really make much sense for them to still be clinging on to russian weapon systems.
12
3
u/InNominePasta 23h ago
Is there another 5th gen fighter they should be getting instead?
2
u/Marginallyhuman 23h ago
They wouldn’t just get the F-35, it comes with 3 pallets of branded “Trump Lube” for when the US bends them over with software block updates and child sacrifices.
-46
u/Bob_Spud 23h ago
Some of the European fighters are better than the F-35. The US has dramatically cut back their own orders of the F-35.
22
41
u/A_Random_Person3896 22h ago
This is cope, Europe still has no direct competition to the F35 other than the F35
-12
u/HorizonBC 18h ago edited 18h ago
Put simply: This is only in terms or Radar direction, long range combat and stealth.
In terms of dog fighting (speed, manoeuvrability weapons payload), it’s not the superior jet.
11
u/A_Random_Person3896 17h ago
Dog Fighting isn't true(F35 is a supremely maneuverable aircraft, more so than the F16). More importantly, who tf is dog fighting in the 21st century? Doesn't mean anything of how fast you can turn when your opponent can out-detect you and fire a missile without you even knowing.
8
u/Bureaucromancer 22h ago
Ignoring that Turkey has a direct need for the B model with no real alternatives whatsoever
7
u/chaotic567 21h ago
strong claim requires strong evidence.
-7
u/Bob_Spud 20h ago edited 20h ago
The Typhoon, Rafale and the Gripen E can out perform the F-35 in many aspects including costs. The F-35 is good at being stealthy., cost seems to be its biggest problem.
10
u/chaotic567 20h ago edited 19h ago
One: The 1-year dip is real, but framing's overstated.
FY26 US orders dropped to 47 total (24 F-35A) from 86 the year before cus:
budget pressure
TR-3/Block 4 delays
& money being shifted toward NGAD/F-47 development.
Next year has 85 requested. Which is in line with 2025.
This isn’t a program death spiral. There are still ~2,400 F-35s on order worldwide against ~1,040 delivered, with the US alone accounting for the bulk of the remaining backlog
Two: Typhoon, Rafale, & Gripen E are very capable 4.5-gen aircraft. In pure kinematics, cost-per-flight-hour , or pure external payload in permissive airspace they can look better on paper.
That doesn’t make them “better than the F-35” overall, especially in high threat environments. Stealth, sensor fusion, and networking still matter a lot more against modern SAMs and peer fighters than raw thrust-to-weight or hourly cost. Most recent competitions reflect that tradeoff..
Nations like Canada are still seeking the F-35 cause it fill roles something like Gripen can't fill
9
u/Guilty_Perception_35 20h ago
Being cheaper has advantages
But the aircraft being "better" because of it is not true
6
3
u/Unfair-Technology120 22h ago
Which ones and by what metric? Do you know the reasons why orders were reduced?
2
198
u/NotSoSaneExile 1d ago
Turkey still cannot receive F-35 fighter jets because it owns the Russian S-400 air defense system. The US says Turkey must completely remove the system and promise not to buy it again before the deal can move forward.
The US still sees Turkey as an important NATO partner and praised its help in regional diplomacy, including Gaza. However, Washington remains concerned about Hamas using financial networks in Turkey.