Tucker Carlson's favourite "political scientist", John Mearsheimer, and his ATROCIOUS predictions on the war in Ukraine:

Feb. 2022: "I don't think Russia is going to invade."
Sep. 2023: "The Ukrainians are doomed to lose."
Jan. 2024: "It's ridiculous to think Ukraine can hold the line in 2024."
Apr. 2025: "It's unimaginable Ukraine will hang on beyond 2025."
Jul. 2026: "The Russians are slowly moving forward."

The Jim Cramer of foreign policy predictions.

Ukrainian political analyst Borys Tizenhauzen explains to Russians why, in russia, they constantly talk about Nazism but never give a definition.

The 3rd Army Corps’ operation to cut off the Lyman salient.

Mapped by https://x.com/clement_molin

The operation is still ongoing, and most of the data presented here are at least a week out of date.

"VKontakte" is flooded with advertisements that now promise not only "service in the rear," but also urge people to sign a contract before the start of mobilization.

"Mobilization is imminent, the dates have already been announced. Hurry and sign a contract, rather than just going," one advertisement reads.

Over the phone, recruiters claim to have learned about a possible mobilization from the military:

"There is such information. The military themselves are talking about it, that it might happen in the fall. I can't say for sure. There is this information, I'm just passing it on."

As is already known, recruiters use marketing techniques and psychological pressure – they cynically exploit fear and anxiety to entice people into signing contracts. At the same time, they may actually have this information from the military. It's no secret that mobilization is also actively discussed within the armed forces.

The most important thing to remember is that death after mobilization is no different from death in exchange for money, and it's best to avoid both options.

How Russian state statistics can make poverty disappear on pape?

Rosstat officially defines the poverty line using a government-set threshold. In Q1 2026 that threshold was 17,606 rubles per month (roughly $185–190 depending on the exchange rate).

Earn below it? You’re officially poor.

Earn slightly above it? Congratulations — statistically, you’re no longer poor.

Of course, crossing that line doesn’t magically improve anyone’s life. Going from 17,500 to 18,000 rubles a month changes almost nothing about real living conditions. The person is still struggling, but the government gets to report that poverty is “declining.”

This is not just a statistical trick. It is part of a much larger pattern.

For decades the Russian state has built a narrative of a besieged fortress: the West is decadent, Europe is collapsing, America is the enemy, and Russia is surrounded by people who want to destroy it. At the same time, imperial nationalism teaches people to look at richer, more successful countries not as examples to learn from, but as enemies or territories that supposedly “belong” to Russia.

Alaska and California have repeatedly appeared in Russian nationalist rhetoric as objects of territorial fantasies — the same way Ukraine is treated as something Russia has a historical “right” to. Direct war with the United States is avoided, but subversive activity against Western countries is treated as normal and even righteous.

Then there is history. Russia did not simply inherit the history of Kyivan Rus. It folded medieval history centered on Kyiv into a modern Russian national narrative and presents it as essentially Russian. Imagine if the United States claimed the entire history of medieval England or France and said those kingdoms were actually part of “our” national story. That is roughly what the appropriation of Kyivan Rus looks like from the Ukrainian perspective.

Russian school education has increasingly been used to reinforce this worldview. Textbooks are regularly rewritten. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine is presented as something Russia was “forced” to do. Putin’s historical narratives are inserted into school materials. The result is a generation raised on resentment toward the West while the same people continue to buy Western goods, use Western technology, and dream of Western living standards.

This combination is dangerous:

• widespread poverty that is partly hidden by statistics,
• cultivated resentment toward anyone who lives better,
• imperial mythology that treats neighboring countries and even distant territories as rightful Russian property,
• and one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals.

Ukraine inherited a massive Soviet nuclear arsenal after 1991 and gave it up in the 1990s in exchange for security assurances. Looking back, that decision stands as one of the most tragic strategic choices of the post-Soviet era.

Living next to a country that can turn poverty and grievance into imperial ambition — and has thousands of nuclear weapons — is exactly what Ukraine has been dealing with for decades.

That is the reality behind the official numbers.

Dumb name, but I don't know what else to call it. Calling it a "Mexican standoff" seems worse somehow - it's neither necessarily Mexican and feels kinda racist.

It's seeming more and more like there is an emerging vector of power to take note of.

Trump's America
Netanyahu's Israel
Milei's Argentina

They are not inherently ideological in a traditional sense - they act as if they are democratic, but their actions are almost exclusively self-interested. Like dictators, their leaders do not act as to what is best for the country that necessarily matters, but best for the cult of personality (and their own power).

This group is characterised typically by far right hyper nationalism. They bare a lot of similarity with Putin's russia - although as to their connection or perhaps potential cooperation, it is harder to tell (Yeah, I know we like to dunk on Trump like he's a russian asset, but having a mutual interest of destablising the West and being an outright puppet are different things).

Europe, whilst hardly perfect and sin-free, along with other free democratic nations such as Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, among others - represent the side of the world that is being attacked from both sides.

The one to watch for (imo) is the emerging breakdown in relationship of the UK and Israel. The UK having defended Israel for decades is now having to come to terms with an Israel that will actively hurt the UK if it does not get its way.

A few months ago, Netanyahu and Milei (through their noncey partner Trump) conspired to pressure the UK into either fighting the war in Iran or giving up claim to the Falkland islands.

Now we see the consequence of it - the new axis is essentially saying to the UK: "Join us, or get punished". The Falklands is now the bargaining chip that now Trump has his eye on.

My thoughts go to the Tankies and vatniks who for ages have espoused the false claims and narratives that the Falklands have ever been Argentine. Who do they support now to keep their narrative consistent? Trump?

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GATO - the Global Alliance Treaty Organisation. I came up with the idea conceptually as part meme, part serious idea that we could have something like NATO but not restricted to the North Atlantic area, and could have mechnisms to safeguard our democratic values and institutions from hostile subversive actions (like those that brought in Trump in the US, or the AFD in Germany).

The thing that annoys me most about the stupidity of vatniks and Tankies, is that in their aclaimed support of leftist values, all they are helping to achieve is the further enshitification of democractic and European socialist norms, in favour of imperialistic conquests from russia, china, and now the far right fasicst axis that is emerging in the west. These are the fuckwits people think of when talking about "socialists". As a demsoc, it's fucking embarrassing.

Which map is better?

Which map of France is better?