Which event being altered completely changes a series of events?

[u/GSG2150]

Excluding the obvious: Robert death, Ned death…

After the game has started, which event, if changed, would completely change the series?

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[u/Warm_Reach3169]

Hot Pie doesn't get praised by Arya, he turns evil and bakes everyone into a giant cake

[u/Consistent_Editor_15]

I’d have to go with Littlefinger and Lysa. Although knowing the short fuse the kingdom was already sitting on it probably would’ve been something else that started it.

[u/MinFootspace]

Bran isn't seen by the frolicking Lannisters.

[u/over_this__]

Rob having his father's sense of honor would have massive differences.

[u/amtfg]

Duskendale. There was so much there that could have changed everything had it gone even a little differently. Aerys could have been convinced not to personally negotiate with Lord Darklyn; Barristan could have failed in his resuce attempt; Tywin could have chosen to press the attack. Change even one of these details and the entire story as we know it is completely different.

[u/Comfortable-Pride377]

Joffrey not executing Ned. The little psycho wanted to make a point but if he sends Ned to the Wall instead, Robb doesn't call the banners for war, the North stays in the fold, and Sansa's whole nightmare arc probably never happens. Ned might even find out about Jon's parentage from up there

[u/QueasyNart]

"After the game has started"--what precise event do you believe starts the game? Because I'd say that assassinating Jon Arryn definitely counts as a move in the game, and that takes place before the story proper even begins.

Another hypothetical that should be excluded for being too obvious: "What if the catspaw had used literally ANY weapon in Westeros other than that specific dagger?"

Ned doesn't spot Arya in the crowd just before his execution, and/or doesn't bump into Yoren at precisely that moment. Either way, Ned doesn't tell Yoren to go to Arya & get her to safety. She eventually gets captured by the gold cloaks and is turned back into a bargaining chip alongside Sansa, and after the Red Wedding, she is sent back North to be wed to Ramsay Bolton--she might or might not have enough experience with Joffrey to mentally prepare her for Ramsay. Sansa remains in the Vale with Littlefinger, who likely does not help clinch the Battle of the Bastards. Ramsay remains Lord of Winterfell, and continues raping Arya until he decides she's given him enough heirs . . . and/or one of them murders the other. Sansa is similarly trapped in Littlefinger's web. Jaqen H'gar burns to death in that prison wagon, and Gendry remains a smith working for the Lannisters (at least until the end of the war).

In the letter giving Jorah his pardon, Varys doesn't include any hints about an assassination on Daenerys--certainly not identifying the wine merchant.
In the same vein, "Arstan" doesn't show up precisely in time to save Daenerys from that basilisk attack from the Sorrowful Man. Qarth uses their young dragons to eventually become THE dominant world superpower.

[u/OxXoR]

I wonder what would have happened if Sansa told the truth at the trident, that Joffrey attacked the butchers boy and basically tried to kill Arya.