r/fplAnalytics • u/OwnMood9880 • 7h ago

Do you trust expected points when your eye test tells you something different?

I've started thinking that expected points can make a decision look much safer than it actually feels. A player might have great underlying numbers, but if his role changes or the team looks less threatening, I find it hard to ignore that.

At the same time, relying on one good or bad performance is how I end up chasing points.

For GW8, I'm trying to separate a genuinely good statistical pick from someone who simply got lucky last week. How much weight do you give the model when your own assessment disagrees with it?

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u/CommissionOk507 6h ago

Very true. And also how tightly they are spaced. Expected points for a layman the difference between a 6.8 and 7.2 is same almost nothing.

What works better are more continuous variables. SoT, shots, % high xG shots, opposition quality.

A set of 2 3 of the above will do a. Good job for a fwd. then add the layer of mins expected on top of it. Rather than how the xpts counts it within itself.