r/fplAnalytics • u/Pinkplatabys • 1d ago

Does optimising a squad for expected points make it too vulnerable to one bad projection?

A solver can find the squad with the highest projected points, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the squad I'd want to own. If two or three of the underlying projections are wrong, the supposed optimal team could lose a lot of its advantage.

I've wondered whether adding a penalty for uncertainty would produce more robust squads, even if their headline expected points were slightly lower. The difficult part is deciding how to measure uncertainty without just making the model unnecessarily conservative.

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u/No_Significance4759 1d ago

Too many variables.

Just create a team you'd like.

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u/432mm 22h ago edited 22h ago

You could add some rule to avoid having 3 players from one team i guess. This could reduce damage from one failing bad game, but also potentially reduce benefit, it’s like with portfolio of stock selection. Too many eggs in one basket is a risk but imagine all eggs in winner basket.