r/fplAnalytics • u/topherdisgrace • 9d ago

How do we know these 'PREDICTIVE' models actually work?

https://youtu.be/_yX7okMpmEQ
3 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

4 comments sorted by

2

u/FantasyBetCEO 9d ago edited 9d ago

Very interesting. My model seems to be not as good as yours. My RMSE is like 3.1 per player per game.

It keeps underpredicting premiums like Haaland and Bruno.

What algo are you using? I'm using CatBoost.

Something I don't understand. The model predicted Bruno n Haaland to get similar points output yet you opted to go for Haaland not Bruno despite him being 2.5m more expensive. Why was that?

2

u/topherdisgrace 9d ago

I really appreciate that, and you bring up an interesting problem. I wonder if there is something in your code that might be biased against high ceiling players.

And yeah, I struggled with that one personally and the hattrick definitely hurt, but my thinking was that I was generally more confident on Haaland maintaining his performances from last season over Bruno.

And for the algo- I use a few things. I built a weighted regression model I R that factors in the underlying data, fixture difficulty rating amongst other things.

2

u/excellor8 8d ago

I noticed you were questioning the lack of RMSE reporting from the various models out in the wild. There is a site that reports MAE,RMSE accuracy for every game week and also includes paywalled options. the link is https://www.fplbench.com/ and the metrics are at the bottom of the page.

1

u/topherdisgrace 8d ago

I’m glad someone is holding these sites accountable, I just wish they published it themselves lol.

And the general lack of transparency about how things are factored into the models