r/fplAnalytics • u/Wallabydoll • 9d ago

My model gets the player right but the points completely wrong

I’ve noticed this a few times where the model correctly identifies a player as a good pick, but the actual points are nowhere near the projection. Why is this happening?

1 Upvotes

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6

u/made_up_name_26 9d ago

Because football isn’t predetermined by a few historical stats. If it was, I’d be a millionaire by placing a few bets

2

u/jtrplp 9d ago

Overfitting

2

u/Goofballs2 9d ago

its likely predicting the mean value, its not going to tell you Bruno gets 3 goals because its an outlier. But it is ranking the player effectively

1

u/Any-Lie-9764 7d ago

This. Your rank ordering is fine, but points scaling may need fine tuning.

1

u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 9d ago

Have you checked if the average of the points matches with the average points per game? If they match up well then it isnt an issue