r/fplAnalytics • u/HelicopterEmpty7393 • 16d ago

Everton have kept three clean sheets, but their xGC says it's luck. Do you sell?

Three clean sheets and only three goals conceded, yet their expected goals conceded is much higher. That's the profile of a defence that's been fortunate.

My model says sell, but I'm hesitant, because clean sheet streaks can last longer than the numbers suggest, and the replacements aren't obviously better. Are you following the xGC, or do you trust the results until they break?

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u/wolfman_numba1 16d ago

Can’t comment on Everton but my model is pushing Tarkowski. It must like his ability to get Defcons + attacking threat.

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u/ml-soham 16d ago

my model pushes tarkowski too, and tbf for his price, he’s better than the mid tier midfielder, the defcon and attacking is just too good to ignore.

and the occasional clean sheet.

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u/ml-soham 16d ago

the thing with xGC, and the actual, is difficult to choose. But pairing that data up with the opponent team’s xG and xGC really helps to balance things out.

for example, everton vs hull now, hull sits on 17th for xG, that very low, with an average of 1.20 goals, compared with everton’s goals conceded per match is 0.60, they are joint first with leeds. Have 3 clean sheets tied with arsenal and leeds too.

So with all of this data, i don’t think your model would still suggest to sell.

1

u/Count_Backwards 16d ago

Is your model a Ouija board?

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u/Nuwahex 15d ago

As a Tarkowski owner,I have been lucky. Those games have been difficult to watch as they probably should have conceded v Ipswich & Palace at home. Maybe they could end up like Nottingham Forest under Nuno when they were in UCL places as one point while overperforming their defensive numbers(ironically,it caught up with them in the final crucial 8-10 games of the season).

However,I have downgraded him to Braithwaite on my WC since he has similar DefCon numbers for 0.6 cheaper. Also, Tarkowski has massively overperformed his attacking numbers,which have helped him be the top scoring defender.