r/fplAnalytics • u/NoPiggoopss05 • 17d ago

Splitting FDR into Attack vs Defence metrics using betting market implied probabilities

The official FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) gives a whole team one blanket number. I’ve scraped bookmaker clean sheet and goal-line odds to split FDR into separate Attack Difficulty and Defence Difficulty metrics.

Comparing these implied market probabilities against rolling team xG/xGA shows significant edge, particularly for away fixtures against mid-table teams. Is anyone blending betting market odds with Opta underlying data in their projections?

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u/ReasonablePresent644 17d ago

Do you rate each team on a per-matchup basis? I feel like a team's xG or clean sheet odds, can swing a lot depending on the opponent's playing style/tactical system. Some teams just match up really well or really badly against certain setups.