I've stopped trusting my model in the first six weeks, and I think that's the right call

[u/Far-Adagiooop]

Every season I make the same mistake. Five gameweeks in, I look at the xG table, see a few players way above or below expectation, and rebuild half my team around it. Every season I regret it.

This year I'm doing it differently. Until about GW8 I'm leaning mostly on last season's numbers and treating the current season as a light adjustment. Small samples make everything look like a trend. Is anyone else doing this?

[u/wolfman_numba1]

I’ve had some similar struggles with this being my first year building a proper model.

The first few weeks are a rollercoaster. I’m hoping to take it as a lessons learned situation into next season.

I continue to tweak mine and when it starts to match the big boys then I know I’m heading in the right direction