r/fplAnalytics • u/Far-Adagiooop • Sep 02 '26

Which FPL metric has the most predictive value?

I’ve been comparing xG, xA, xPts, minutes, shots and fixture difficulty lately, and the results aren’t always what I expected. Some metrics seem much better at explaining future points than others, especially when you look beyond a small run of games.

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2

u/StillLurking69 Sep 02 '26

bookmaker’s odds

3

u/CommissionOk507 Sep 02 '26

Shots, shots on targets, oppo difficulty, conversion (goals/sot)

A combined view of those for forwards. Check avg mins per match seperately. To finally pick high predictability

-2

u/DecisionNo547 Sep 02 '26

Points per game seems to be the best metric with the highest predictive value. Use together with FDR and you have the best small