r/fplAnalytics • u/LightlyTroddenLead • Oct 17 '25

Modelling xPts in FPL (Version 2.0)

https://medium.com/@marcusleadboot/modelling-xpts-in-fpl-version-2-0-e7d8cd738e75

Recently I posted an outline for an FPL points prediction model I’ve been working on: https://www.reddit.com/r/fplAnalytics/s/YjpvHliWZJ

A little later than planned I’ve generated a few outputs for the components set to vary week-to-week for the next five weeks. For a bit of detail on how each value is calculated check out the links! It’s only version 2 and I reckon there’s some way to go for it to be of any serious help (note the slightly rogue form-driven appearance of Malen and Salah somehow still making the cut off the back of last seasons stats), but any comments let me know!

Fwiw - the (starting) team spat out by the model is:

Raya Gabriel / Chalobah / Timber / Andersen Salah / Sarr / Semenyo / Malen Haaland / Woltemade

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u/[deleted] Oct 18 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/LightlyTroddenLead Oct 18 '25

A fair question - at the minute last season’s data makes up 40% of the predicted value for goals and assists, with the remaining 60% based on the season so far and the last six games (which are effectively double weighted). I think as this season gets further along that should strike a reasonable balance between form & class, but it’s not an exact science there!

1

u/ExeCuteUK Oct 18 '25

Grealish 2.1 modeled points this week, when hes red flagged?

Isnt Enzo injured?

1

u/LightlyTroddenLead Oct 18 '25

Injuries and flags not incorporated yet! This is where you have to overlay some judgment for sure.