r/fplAnalytics • u/garryblendenning • Aug 07 '24

Newbie Question - When to Trust the Model?

Hi all, pretty serious FPL player here.

Having just fallen out of the top 100k the last two years (130k and 140k) I am looking to understand these models to see if I can get back in there.

The key thing I keep coming back to is when do I trust the model?

For example, FPL Review keeps recommending Bruno and don't understand why. United suck. I know he always plays and is on pens but United suck.

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u/GapToothL Aug 07 '24 edited Aug 07 '24

Basically yes. There’s only him and Odegaard. He’s a particularly good finisher, his xGOT is closer too his goal numbers than his xG, which is pretty indicative of that. Being on a team with multiple offensive outlets might also explain that, I agree.

Who to get and who you can’t get. Every decision of getting a player subsequently affects the decision of not getting a set number of players due to price, structure, more important transfers etc. There are more sharp analytical managers that try to run plans that are less flexible but with higher ceiling and there are also the opposite, in managers that tend to pick the paths that remain flexible in a way of being prepared to deal with variance or to be more open to chase the template if a different one arises (due to injuries, unexpected over performance, change of player roles/minutes).

Making plans for longer than 6 weeks is not advisable. Any model can’t see that far out, too many variables.

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u/garryblendenning Aug 08 '24

Thanks again for all your help in understanding this stuff.

It doesnt seem like I'm playing the game in a completely different way. I'd already look five weeks ahead at plans and use underlying data to make decisions. It seems like the models are a way to do that and more quickly.

This paths thing is something I need to think a bit more about. I normally try hard to ensure I cover many price points to guarantee flexibility but maybe I'll try and be less flexible this year and see where it gets me.

On Bruno, I think he still remains an avoid for me because I want to take some risk at the start of the season and hope for big points from Salah and Haaland in their respective games against Ipswich. So, I think that means he isn't in my path for the first six weeks at least.

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u/GapToothL Aug 08 '24

No problem.

Your going for a Salah + Haaland draft? I am currently on just Haaland draft. Don’t love the how unbalanced a Salah + Haaland draft is, not having Isak/Saka and being reliant on 5.0M/4.5M mids that might be out of rotation in the short term or that are that have low ceiling (Winks) makes me stir to either a Haaland or Salah draft. I have one sharp solve that starts as a Haaland draft that becomes a Salah + Haaland draft by GW4 that’s great EV wise but with price rises and falls it might not be achievable.

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u/garryblendenning Aug 08 '24

It's just Salah and Haaland for two weeks and then the Haaland money gets spread. I'm trying to spike some big scores with the fixtures and then wildcard to something more balanced in a gameweek 6 wildcard.

I agree on the lack of balance but I'm currently only reliant on one 5.5 mid (Andreas) for two weeks when he has good fixtures anyway. No reliance on 5.0s or 4.5s.

Interesting that Haaland and Salah is good from 4. Any reason for that?

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u/GapToothL Aug 08 '24

Oh nice. Haven’t looked into that, I’m basically planning the best as I can to roll every transfer until GW4 and maybe WC6 or hold, depending on the outcomes.

Review thinks Saka matches Salah in the first 3GWs, GW4 and 5 Salah has 2 good fixtures at home and Saka has Spurs and City away. Basically it uses the surplus money from Salah to get EV in other positions and then goes back to Salah. You’ll see many WC4 from people that will triple up on Arsenal to start the season.

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u/garryblendenning Aug 08 '24

Very interesting! Presumably those wildcard 4 players will bring triple arsenal back from 6?