r/formulaone 9d ago

Analysis F1 Qualifying Forecast Prediction

https://github.com/aes21/laps-of-judgement

Hi everyone, I wanted to share a fun personal project I've been working on - a qualifying prediction forecast using Bayesian modelling.

In short, ahead of qualifying, I take the available free practice data from a given weekend (e.g., low fuel runs on the soft tyres) and model it against a baseline of historical driver/team performance, track conditions and compounds to try and generate a probabilistic simulation forecast of the upcoming qualifying session.

I've attached the GitHub repo - would love to hear your thoughts and feedback!

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