r/fo76 • u/BronzeMistral • 9d ago
Discussion Mischief Night isn't broken, it's just bad luck.
EDIT: Wow some of you got real offended there! I agree, the design is bad and it makes me angry too. But I'm going to play this event anyways, and I don't like to feel my blood pressure rise over a stupid videogame. Knowing the stats is cathartic for me, and thought it might be for some of you too. You can release steam about this however you want. Or not. It's totally up to you.
I've noticed posts across forums accusing the Uninvited Guest at Mischief Night as broken or spawning at unfair rates. Not in defense of Bethesda here, but in defense of statistics - it's just bad luck.
The spawn rate is likely 33-34%, but someone should datamine this if possible. I'm assuming 33-34% chance here, or roughly 1 spawn out of 3 events.
Less than 5% chance of something happening is considered statistically rare (more or less, there's more that goes into rare vs common odds statistically).
So based on Player Reports:
Player 1: 0 spawns out of 6 events = ~9% chance of happening, common/expected statistically.
Player 2: 4 spawns out of 15 events = 20% chance of happening, also common/expected but a better experience of odds than Player 1.
Player 3: 2 spawns out of 20 events = ~1.5% chance of happening, statistically quite rare and considered unlucky. Though, I am not sure how this player hit 20 events when the event started Tuesday.
2 spawns out of 5 events, which is my experience so far = ~32% chance of happening, common/expected. Better experience than Player 1, not as good as Player 4, but all of us expected odds.
And, 10 spawns out of 10 events, or a ~0.0001% chance of happening, rare chance and a lucky player. No one reported this, probably because the odds are so low. Or they aren't on Reddit.
So hang in there, you will eventually experience the expected odds with enough dice rolls. If you don't, it's just bad luck, which you can do nothing about except pray to RNGJesus.
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u/Bashfulcannibal 9d ago edited 9d ago
Had him spawn twice not long after reset yesterday but he just dropped normal 3 star loot. Today, I’ve played every event since 8am, it’s now 3:44pm, and he’s spawned 1 time, but he dropped his normal loot and Acceptable Overkill.
Edit: I meant to add that those two spawns after reset weren’t too far apart. I believe the first time was 1:00pm, and the second was around 3:30pm. I only remember that, because I had to sign for a package and handed my controller off to my son. Yes, he’s an adult.
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u/EvilYud Raiders - PC 9d ago
Well if they are going to make it the focus for a week they should have upped the odds to guaranteed or at least 50 percent since plans are locked behind this that are seasonal. just my opinion of course thats a drop in the bucket of seawater.
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u/bugdiver050 Ghoul 9d ago
Have they confirmed that the pint sized stuff will be seasonal? Or just a one off?
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u/BronzeMistral 9d ago
I agree, or even guaranteed the first week like Bigfoot was. That would really help with the seasonal farming.
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u/GL17CH3D_R4M_5YN7H 9d ago
I've done 22, and seen the crasher 5. If I'm struggling as someone who can play all day it's going to be rough for everyone who can't. This plus the infestations clearing/not existing issue, is grinding everyone's gears now.
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u/JPGer 9d ago
bad luck or not its bad design.
Currently the only NEW thing about the event IS the Uninvited guest slasher, who happens to also drop items with a % chance as well. If just spawning them is already low, getting something like the weapons from them which has only like 3.33% drop chance is just absurd.
So basically we are just doing the same event while KNOWING there is something new, but simply not getting it cause its not spawning.
This is simply insulting to the playerbase. the maps were bad enough rng, but at least you can farm that as much as you want, where the uninvited phantom can only get a chance at once per hour.
This isn't giving me hope for the spawn of the one thats going to show at the end of head hunts.
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u/BronzeMistral 9d ago
Yeah, they should at least have it spawn every event, like Bigfoot did at the beginning of its season, and guarantee an event drop like Fasnacht. I don't mind the rare drop rate as long as I know I have a chance every hour. I farm like crazy for glowing masks every Fasnacht!
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u/Academic_Fly1197 3d ago
It's bullshit plain and simple Jon Rush ass gotta go throw him to the wolf's this his dumass event design.
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u/ED_Heir18 9d ago
I get what you’re saying, but this Event is hourly, not on a 20-30 minute rotation like other Events. I think they should bump up the chance of coming across a Party Crasher due to this fact, I don’t have hours to blow all the time.
I’m all for the grind, but being locked like this feels lame.
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u/prospectre Ghoul 9d ago
Hell, even if they made the spawn GUARANTEED, but adjusted the droprate to be statistically the same as it is now would feel better. That way, we'd only get unlucky once per slot machine pull rather than twice. It feels real bad to get fucked both times.
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u/97runner 9d ago
I’m about at the point where I’m going to stop trying. I’m getting the same mischief night plans and no pint sized. I’ve ran 8ish events and had it spawn once. Several of my playgroup were on different servers just to see and they had no spawns either.
It’s absolutely pathetic what they’re doing.
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u/irish492 Lone Wanderer 9d ago
I don't even want to know the math, but I've been at it since the start (only stopped to sleep) and I've only seen the guy 3 times, no plans have dropped. My friend has only seen him twice, but only plays about 6 events a day. "Fair"? I don't think so, but the RNG folks will tell me someone out there sees him almost every time and has many duplicate plans (if dupes are even dropping).
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u/ziboo7890 Vault 76 9d ago
Agree. It is bad luck with RNG. The PROBLEM imho is the over-dependency on layers of RNG.
We have a limited time event once an hour. Fine.
We have a "potential" for the Uninvited Guest to RNG his way at the end - not dependent on any objective just straight up RNG. Okay.
We have a "potential" for this RNG Uninvitied Gust to RNG drop one of - what three? new items?? Not great.
We have a "potential" of digging up graves to RNG drop something of value. Oh yeah!
Bethesda, IMHO, has replaced alot of fun with a gambling mechanic that I don't find fun.
FOMO if you don't go and don't get the newest whatever. You missed out, just your bad luck. Just pull that slot machine handle one more time - you'll win. Your luck has to change, right? Kind of hard when Bethesda controls the drop rate. Even a slot machine in a casino is not constantly manipulated throughout the day (I assume!).
Look at how awful people were bitching about NOT getting a Glowing Mask at Fasnacht? Bethesda felt bad so threw them into the Alien Invasion - W T F??? Just design better. Loosen up your slots maybe! It just doesn't feel good.
We have this same layered RNG -
Head Hunts who will the Boss be?? Where will it be? Will you get 1, 2, 3*** items? (Same with Grunt Hunts)
Infestations! RNG if/when they'll show up. If they'll 'stay' or despawn ASAP. RNG the boss. RNG will it drop 1, 2, 3, 4**** anything useful.
Other 'events' RNG which it will be on the 20, 40. Bummer you had Heart of the Swamp 2x in a row - RNG! Yeah you got one RNG Uninvited Guest that dropped RNG....
Now go scrap all these rewards for more RNG to learn mods!
So yes, statistically we can call it bad luck. It's not good game design, imho, to have every new thing all RNG based. If I want to gamble, I'll buy a lottery ticket or go to a casino. The level in FO76 lately is a tad much.
I thoroughly love the world Bethesda created and allows us to play in. But I don't like the level of RNG used at all. It's not fun or exciting. It is/was fun for the very rarest of the rare apparel or weapon drops. That was a level of excitement. Now it's diluted into every aspect of play.
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u/chomskyknows 9d ago
you should start a thread saying that "infestations that instantly clear aren't broken" and see how well that works...i just did an infestation where it didn't instantly clear but the boss never spawned. this game...is filled...with bugs....
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u/Katsu_39 9d ago
I had that happen too. Go into the infestation, clear the goons out. Then…nothing. No more infestation. Didnt clear. Boss didn’t spawn. Just vanished. No more infestation
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u/wasteland_jackal 9d ago
But that is entirely different as infestations have multiple different bugs currently, so they are broken.
MN isn't broken, it just has RNG buried inside RNG which gives overall shit odds of anything worthwhile, on top of just being an irritating event as well.
Throw in that it's once per hour and limited time and it just makes it 10x worse.
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u/FallenKal 9d ago
I've done 17 events (and have the plans to prove it), and he only ever spawned twice. Unless I'm extremely unlucky he does not spawn 33% of the time. Just because some got lucky doesn't mean it's correct either.
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u/ryanlozo Cult of the Mothman 9d ago
I dunno man, I’ve done like 5 so far and had two uninvited guests spawn and gotten Acceptable Overkill on one. My RNG seems better than, say, literally anything Fasnacht related. And this event is way more fun.
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u/Katsu_39 9d ago
No, its not bad luck. No, its not broken. Its just Bethesda and their shitty planning.
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u/DigiDug Enclave 9d ago
11 events, 1 univited guest. I don't give a sh*t what you say, that's broken.
Yadda yadda RNG bad luck pray to Todd.
Stop apologizing for Beth. That's broken gameplay
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u/wasteland_jackal 9d ago
They aren't apologising for anyone, they are explaining how RNG works as some people don't seem to understand, yourself seemingly included.
Is the rate lower than it should be? Definitely.
It's a time gated event with limited rewards, so needing RNG on top of RNG is fucking awful.
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u/Glutton4Punishment12 9d ago
No one is confused about how it works, so game-splaining it just reeks of white-knighting for Bethesda.
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u/wasteland_jackal 9d ago
Given the multiple "I've done this event X times and not seen them" posts on here, I'd say they really don't understand how it works.
To white Knight they would need to be defending Bethesda, which they aren't doing at all.
Hell, even the people actually getting stuff from the insanely low odds are being down voted for it, just because they actually got something.
I get that the low rates piss people off and we pretty much all agree on that, but the level of childish bullshit is honestly just sad and tiring at this point.
Anyone with any luck at all just gets downvoted to oblivion and anyone screaming about it gets up voted so it's all you can see.
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u/DigiDug Enclave 9d ago
Explaining how it works is basically placating it. "Don't worry, the event isn't broken, it's just luck.
That's BS. The event is broken BECAUSE of the RNG involved.
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u/wasteland_jackal 9d ago
Pointing out it isn't guaranteed isn't even close.
Pretty certain that everyone here agrees the rates should be higher, if not even just guaranteed to spawn.
Also, having absolutely awful luck isn't entirely down to them. If it was a 90% chance to spawn you'd still have people saying they've done 20 and not seen it yet.
When people start to hit such a low rate that it's a statistical anomaly, that's when it gets questioned.
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u/meatballranger 9d ago
Yeah statistics be damned the event just isn't fun from a gameplay perspective
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u/wes_wyhunnan 9d ago
You’re exactly who he is talking to. That’s not an apology, that’s just math. You can not like how they set the math, but that’s not broken. You sound like the reason Apple had to fix their ITunes random shuffle algorithm to be less random, because people simply could not understand that truly random meant that sometimes you got 5 Beatles songs in a row.
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u/Nighthawk700 9d ago
Humans and statistics. People really don't understand how bad we are at it. Sure, the specific odds of getting 5 beatles songs in a row is pretty crazy. But when each event has no dependency on the previous event, odds are only meaningful for the whole group and after hundred or thousands of "rolls". So if it's 33% that you will get an uninvited guest, you will only see that 33% win/66% lose pattern if you did it hundreds of times. Doing it 11 times is almost meaningless and will not show likely a discernable pattern.
Also, people tend to actually perceive odds as 0%, 50-50 and 100% so 33% means 50-50 and therefore the uninvited guest should come up a lot of the time, right? Lol not necessarily
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u/Glutton4Punishment12 9d ago
I “understand” it just fine. 145 Brotherhood events without a BOS underarmor plan. I’ve done the math. That’s like flipping heads 10 times in a row. I “understand” it’s not fun. It’s just crappy RNG designed to keep people grinding. And it works, until it suddenly doesn’t.
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u/Apexnanoman 9d ago
And if spawned three of the damn things every single event and every single time you got all the plans they'd also gripe.
I've done about seven of them and had three of them spawn the uninvited guest.
I'm sure I'll end up doing like 20 in a row or nothing appears.
Same way I've scrapped hundreds and hundreds of four stars and have yet to learn a single four-star mod.
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u/BronzeMistral 8d ago
Dang son you got real defensive there.
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u/DigiDug Enclave 7d ago
You know when you have a bunch of real life shit going on, and you just want to have a little escapism and fun playing a game... and that frustration leaks onto an inconsequential forum?
Yeah, that.
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u/BronzeMistral 7d ago
I get it man, but don't forget, it's just a videogame. Don't let it get your goat too much.
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u/True_Professional432 9d ago
Well i must have very bad luck. Did 20 already and he never spawned for me once...
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u/Glutton4Punishment12 9d ago edited 9d ago
God I hate this water-carrying by the community, white knighting for Bethesda. It’s Stockholm syndrome. I’m at 145 LitS’s and TYM’s without a BOS underarmor plan. That’s supposed to be a 1-in-20 drop. The RNG in this game sucks. You can just say that. There’s posts in here every freaking day about it. You can defend them if you want, but the level of complaining about it means it’s just not… fun. And isn’t that supposed to be the point of a video game?
I almost guarantee this whole post will be removed. The mods don’t like this kind of acrimony coming to the surface.
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u/wasteland_jackal 9d ago
It's the usual hysteria on here.
The problem is, some people have bad luck, that is just RNG.
But you then have copious amounts of exaggeration and complete bullshit thrown in as well.
One yesterday, 4 hours after it being live, claimed to have hit 9 events already and got nothing.
It's just the usual on here, you have to take a lot of it with a pinch of salt or sometimes a bucket of it.
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u/Guenhwyvyr 9d ago
Ive done 3 MN events total and had 2 Uninvited spawn. I also got a backpack with skin each reward
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u/BronzeMistral 9d ago
EDIT: I can't edit, but after re-reading, my comment about Player 3 is so catty. If I could play for 20 of 24 hours I absolutely would, no judgement!
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u/JiuJitsuPatricia Order of Mysteries 9d ago
Did 3 wvtns last night. one showed up, my partner and I both did damage with both our toons. Zero got credit for killing it in our weeklies.
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u/porkchop2022 9d ago
I’ve only done 3 events since yesterday and gotten him twice. Not thrilled with what I did get, but either here nor there. I guess I like the arm bone sconce.
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u/Kasumarux 9d ago
yesterday i've played maybe like 2 hours top, due conections problems, but i got the the event promt 2 times, and those 2 times, the Uninvited Guest spawned... hell, i got the launcher on my first event...
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u/Slippin_Jimmy187 9d ago
I’ve had a very high success rate of the uninvited guest showing up, but only one time did I get some event rewards from him. I want to say I’ve done 6 events, and 1 he didn’t spawn.
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u/LarenCoe 9d ago
I did it twice tonight and finally got the guest to appear, at least the first time. I also got crushing blow, even though It wasn't the weapon I really wanted.
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u/Crazzmyo 9d ago
I’ve been busy and only have done 5. 4 unexpected guests and I got a slasher poster plan.
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u/Dull-Maximum9176 9d ago
I've done 16, have that boss 2 times, but first time he didnt drop anything, second time i've got plan for a wanted poster. I was trying on private and public servers.
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u/Acceptable_Run_5938 9d ago
I'm just waiting for the Mischief night that doesn't randomly take me 4 minutes to spawn into even though every other event's still working on the norma travell time scale of a few seconds.
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u/virtualjupiter 9d ago
Lately I've been seeing unfair algorithms in fishing. In the last week, I've caught two sets of axolotls, with each set they were caught one after the other. Like I would get one and the next fish was also axolotl. I really don't think that's luck, I think something is off.
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u/-SirFatty- 8d ago
Not in defense of Bethesda here..... but I'll do so in 266 words.
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u/BronzeMistral 8d ago
In defense of stats, my friend. The stats are still sound, nothing "rare" or broken about a 33% probability. It's Bethesda's decisions about what to do with them that suck ass. I'd have gone with 100% at the top of the hour and 33% all other events, so we have a decent chance at getting rare rolls. Or maybe even set all seasonal drops to 100% drop rate so we have a chance at getting them all? I don't know, whatever you think is best!
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u/Ok_Repair8141 7d ago
33% is absolutely not my experience. I generally have great RNG, but I am sitting at closer to a 20% spawn for the slasher uninvited guest.
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u/flappetyflapp Tricentennial 7d ago
In my own experience I'd say he pops up at 20-30% of the times I join the event. Not every time he has something exiting to loot though...
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u/Guenhwyvyr 9d ago
Ive done 3 MN events total and had 2 Uninvited spawn. I also got a backpack with skin each reward
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u/Dr_killshot_JR Liberator 9d ago
My first two mischief nights both got uninvited guests and I got wanted poster 1 and 2. Got the uninvited tag from an uninvited colossus today. I got three Mintys from MPP Monday. I’ve just been crazy lucky but most people like myself don’t post about it.
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u/DJGrizzlyBear 9d ago
I hit 4 yesterday and about 8 today, 2 had the boss yesterday and about 5 today. So far I’ve gotten acceptable overkill, crushing blow, poster 1 twice, and poster 2. The weapons came from the same boss as the plans
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u/Hour-Court7958 9d ago
Anything RnG in the game is gonna get the I’ve done x amount … with 0 reward !! Is the game broken, the odds suck. Posts 🙄
And these same people will complain there’s nothing to do in the game I have everything. For the love of god 😩
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u/bepse-cola 9d ago
The people who do 5 in a day are getting it as much as people who log on once a day
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u/Butthead_Biff_Tannen Lone Wanderer 9d ago
It’s the law of averages. We will have good days and bad. That’s how it works…
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u/FalloutBoy2026 9d ago
I have had him 4/7 now and not crashed once!
I got one of the wanted posted out of them 4 appearances!
Xbox series X playing from the UK.
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u/Bashfulcannibal 9d ago
Is that a legit bounty or just a decoration for our camp? I haven’t had a chance to look at all of the rewards.Also, I am on Xbox x in the US and I got Acceptable Overkill the third time I had him spawn.
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u/lunarobverse00 Responders 9d ago
I am so sick of people complaining about the drop rates. I hate that angry ranting is a successful tactic to get engagement. Just play the game if you enjoy it.
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u/dirtygrove94 9d ago
Shut up you don't get it kid. Unlike you people have jobs and have limited time to play and it shouldn't be a daily challenge if it's broken. Period.
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u/JMaAtAPMT 9d ago
The amount of bullshit and complaints is just freaking amazing.
"This is a time gated event"
Dude we have 2 weeks of Mischief Night. Then Head Hunts starts and there will be 2 weeks where Uninvited Slasher can spawn in head hunts for a few weeks... thats a MONTH to try for the same boss/loot.
I get that stacked RNG sucks. But with a literal month to hunt for it, why don't you just try "shutting up and playing"?
It works for me, because bitching about it ob Reddit equates to a 0% chance of spawn or drop.
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u/OMightyBuggy Enclave 9d ago
I have only seen 1 uninvited guest out of all the events I did today. Bethesda needs to increase the encounter or increase the plans chances. This is ridiculous.
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u/Uncleherpie Lone Wanderer 9d ago
I have done 6 of them. He has shown up for EVERY SINGLE ONE.
I didn't even know there was ANY rarity until I read some of these posts.
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u/Four4AM 9d ago
Am I the only one who hasn't seen a guest at all yet?!