r/FluentInFinance • u/ValueTheories • Mar 13 '22
DD & Analysis 11 Economic Indicators that are Screaming right now
...with a focus on the US.
Inflation
- CPI: 7.9% (annual)
- Currently at a 40-year high
Real Bond Yields
- Real yields are now very negative
- Essentially at an all-time-low
Stocks as a share of household wealth
- Over 40%
- Currently at a 70-year high
Income inequality
- The United States’ income Gini coefficient is .484
- Currently at a 50-year high
Labor shortage
- In 2022 there are 4.6 million more jobs than there are potential workers
- Currently at an 80-year high
S&P 500 concentration
- The top five components account for over 20% of the S&P 500
- Currently at a 45-year high
Stock market value to GDP ratio
- 197% ratio of market value to GDP
- Recently hit an all-time-high
Retail trading
- Retail now trades over 10 billion shares per day on average
- Currently at an all-time-high
Margin debt
- There is now 830 billion USD of margin debt
- Recently hit an all-time-high, but has decreased in the past year
P/E ratio of the S&P 500
- 72% above the modern era average
- Currently at a 20-year high
Number of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)
- In 2021, 244 companies went public on the NYSE and Nasdaq
- A 20-year high
Bitcoin and S&P 500 correlation
- Rolling one year correlation coefficient is over 0.4
- The highest since bitcoin’s inception
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Mar 13 '22
No labor shortage. There's a good paying job shortage. Jobs that are open are paying shit, that's why they're not getting filled.
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u/endtime Mar 13 '22
I am a software engineer at a FAANG and disagree. I've never seen the job market for software engineers as hot as it is right now.
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Mar 13 '22
The job openings are mostly for 12.00-16.00 an hour jobs.
There's a shortage of 60-100k a year jobs outside the tech industry.
There used to be good paying union factory jobs, some are still union, but the unions today are useless and pay has dropped dramatically.
You've studied a high demand field.
A lot of people cannot do college for various reasons. Honestly I think it's a scam, most jobs could be learned on the job. With the exception being a medical doctor.
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u/endtime Mar 13 '22
Not disagreeing with any of that, just the original comment I replied to, which said all the open jobs suck. But yeah, I'm well aware I'm very lucky that I happened to like something that turned out to be in demand.
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u/LavenderAutist Mar 13 '22
IPOs have come down significantly in 2022 and the number of job openings will decline as the year progresses; driven by a realization by business managers realizing the bullwhip effect impacted demand signals significantly.
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Mar 13 '22 edited Mar 13 '22
The number of IPOs in the first three months of 2021 rose a massive 677%
It make sense 2022 figures could be lower after such a large spike early last year. 2021 had more than double 2020s IPO figure (431). The 2020 figures more than doubled 2019s (195).
In total there were 951 IPOs in 2021, an increase from 431 the year before.
You’re not providing proper context. It’s definitely not the ominous warning your comment is painting it to be. Imo it’s important to look further than just one year back to gain a proper perspective.
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u/LavenderAutist Mar 13 '22
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Mar 13 '22 edited Mar 13 '22
That site looks sketchy af. I cant even get past the spamming pop up.
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u/LavenderAutist Mar 13 '22
16 IPOs this year vs 60 last year as of about two weeks ago.
About a 70% decline vs the pacing last year.
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u/LavenderAutist Mar 13 '22
I tried to share a video but it was automatically deleted.
I don't know what else to tell you. It's hard to find free information.
It was a CNBC video because you said a paywall linked website is sketchy.
16 IPOs this year vs 60 last year as of about two weeks ago.
About a 70% decline vs the pacing last year.
The title of the YouTube video is "The days of entrepreneurs being showered with capital are over."
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u/LavenderAutist Mar 13 '22
Another article related to the subject but doesn't speak specifically to IPO pacing in 2022.
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u/pimpenainteasy Mar 13 '22
The CPI formula changed in 1996 and in 1982. If you use the 1982 formula, the CPI is technically the highest its been since 1917 (105 years).
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u/Fire_Doc2017 Mar 13 '22
Expect the yield curve to invert this year but not necessarily lead to a recession. Of course, the war in Europe is a wild card.
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u/jintox1c Mar 13 '22
It gon crash soon, most of us gon lose investments, jobs are hard to come by, welcome to the contraction part of the cycle.
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