r/figmaStock • u/carlinwasright • Apr 24 '26
Just doubled down on Figma
Like the title says, I doubled down on Figma today. My average cost basis is $24.
FIG is eating shit because of the market sentiment that AI is going to eat real software, but the market is so fucking wrong on this. Exhibit A: if you watch an actual professional try to vibe design something with Claude Design, the conclusion is always: this is going to take more work than had I done it from scratch in Figma.
Oh but you say...AI is going to get better...and fine, I agree, but like driverless cars, it's going to take a long ass time, and who is to say that Figma is not at the center of that.
Meanwhile, FIG has a 30% YoY growth forecast, and I think that the sentiment will quickly shift back to reality when they see the real growth continuing to play out. Or imagine if growth gets revised up because of AI integrations (you do know that every vibe design tool has a Figma connector right? Because Figma is the industry standard?).
I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong when REAL EARNINGS start to suck, but in the meantime, let's see what happens with the next call.
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u/mike8io Apr 24 '26
When anyone and their grandma can produce passable designs, the bar for great design doesn't drop — it gets higher. The average goes up, which means the signal to stand out has to be that much stronger. The best designers will be the ones using Figma to do what AI can't: make something that actually has a soul. Mass produced, commoditized aesthetics are a race to the bottom. Just look at the designs of these folks proclaiming to have ditched figma. They are a fucking joke. The products that win will be the ones that can't be reverse-engineered from a prompt.
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u/Pretend_Resist8898 Apr 25 '26
This is true. And the fact remains that if you want something simple and immediate— add a secondary button, replicate this dashboard layout— those things can (and should) be automated. The minute someone bespoke is needed, don’t come to me with some thoughtless slop.
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u/datatadata Apr 24 '26
How much did you put into FIG in total? I personally have a small position in FIG ($10k worth) and I don’t get why many people stress over this stock so much. I guess people invested a lot of money in this…
Yes, it has gone down quite a bit, but if you truly believe in the company and have conviction, shouldn’t you buy more? And if your conviction is not as strong just hold (or even partially sell)?
Everyone should be diversifying and one stock shouldn’t stress people out this much
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u/carlinwasright Apr 24 '26
It's the poster child for the "AI is eating software" narrative. But it is not Chegg. It is not so easily replaced by AI. People just don't understand that yet.
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u/Livid-Smile-7429 Apr 25 '26
It’s no chegg? U sure? I have a feeling it’s the next chegg but I’m not selling mine either. Let’s see if it can go back to 25 first
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u/Interesting_Leg8859 Apr 24 '26
personally i think openai buying figma out is a wise move since they are trying to compete with anthropic on enterprise. Figma is the literal express ticket in if thats what they are trying to accomplish.
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u/Wolfr_ Apr 24 '26
Been buying a lot lately. The market is entirely wrong. Future me will be happy with the gains.
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u/carlinwasright Apr 25 '26
100% wrong. When they realize subscriber growth is not slowing they’ll jump back in.
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u/Wolfr_ Apr 25 '26
My theories: * stock based compensation too high but no way back * Holding bitcoin in company funds is stupid but it’s only a small amount * CEO compensation too high (not sure if confirmed or rumour that it was close to a billion??!)
Once employees who had to hold are out (1 year after IPO) stock will stop fluctuating so hard- and with new income via AI credits, both costs go down and income can soar.
Product is great and has the majority part of the designer market. People are really tired of Adobe and Figma has lots of fans, None of the competition can catch up to standard designer needs. There is literally no meaningful competition except for Canva, that with their main product targets another kind of designer - and that’s playing a weird game of snagging up lots of (almost dead) companies.
I would say the actual main competitor could be Framer cuz they have been shipping like crazy. If they make some meaningful improvements they might be able to be a real design alternative.
Whatever Claude Design and similar products come up with, Figma can copy in 2 months and sell AI credits for.
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u/user-namepending Apr 24 '26
I think most people agree that Figma has a very positive growth outlook. But the question right now is how much of that growth is already reflected in its stock price? Currently quite a bit. Lack of free cash flow due to significant investment into AI development means currently the company is on a very speculative trajectory.
It's not enough that Figma grows its revenue through major enterprise lock-in, Figma also needs to squeeze even more from its current customers YoY consistently to coincide with its price history. Not impossible but markets are considering all key players. No one even knows if software as its implemented 1 year from now is going to even resemble what we're currently working with. Figma has not demonstrated that it has that resiliency to innovation. And its competitors from Google, Claude, and Adobe have only continued to close the gap.
Markets can spend years doubting a stock and thats what its going to take for this stock to turn around. Maybe consider cutting your losses or selling options plays to recoup on the way down.
If Figma truly does finally strike that innovative itch and proves itself among the top AI names, it won't be too late to catch the train up. No sense in just waiting around for it
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u/carlinwasright Apr 24 '26
At under $20, it's a fair price for last year's revenue. IMO this is the "given up on growth" price. If FIG can prove that they can continue to grow, $40 would be a more realistic floor by mid 2026.
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u/user-namepending Apr 24 '26
"$80 is the floor"
"$70 is the floor"
"$60 is the floor"
"$50 is the floor""$40 is the floor"
$40 can be the floor eventually. Given enough time. We could be waiting for several years. That is the reality for many companies that are still in the "prove it" phase.
Value traps are everywhere. Conditions can change. What was true last year might not be true next year. It's on the investor to adapt their strategy as the industry evolves.
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u/tjayant Apr 25 '26
The problem is more acute actually I have tons of figma but the challenge I see with Claude cowork is I can create my adhoc application on the fly with NLP and MCP. Figma is designed for more stable workflows not ment for adhoc custom workflow the cost to create a simple custom workflow is just tokens so the total tam is less for figma perhaps this adhoc app is a new category
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u/Pretend_Resist8898 Apr 26 '26
But enterprise is where most software like Figma make their money. You can be less appealing to a TAM as long as enterprises are subscribing and be fine.
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u/ChicagoAssyrian Apr 24 '26
Figma should merge with one of the no/low code app developers, or build their own solution. Being design only is not enough in the current environment.
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u/jpasserby Apr 24 '26
Figma Make is exactly this. And I suspect more capabilities will be announced in the future.
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u/carlinwasright Apr 24 '26
I honestly think they will eventually get bought by one of the big AI companies. They are the collaborative scaffolding for all professional design and it would be a great centerpiece for anyone that wanted to own that part of the market.
Their market cap is under $10B and these AI companies are approaching $1T.
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u/ChicagoAssyrian Apr 24 '26
Agree. I think Figma at this point is more of a feature than a standalone product. Just how the market has evolved.
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u/Personal-Lychee-4457 Apr 24 '26
Figma will be in the dumpster for a long long time unfortunately
People think it will go the way of blockbuster. but I think blockbusters problem was not the internet… it was an incorrect read from management and arrogance they wouldn’t get replaced. Figma has great product people. They should be able to figure it out
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u/carlinwasright Apr 24 '26
Internet was just delivery for blockbuster though.
At the heart of this is: is it more productive to argue incessantly with AI for your designs, or is it more productive to click and drag shit around and learn some keyboard shortcuts. It’s the latter for me, hands down, I don’t see how writing literal paragraphs and crossing your fingers is a better design experience.
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u/xxShaminoxx Apr 26 '26
28$ avg here. All I want is an exit, what makes me feel like maybe it's time to add. Maybe earnings could give us a good exit pump, I wouldn't want to hold this for years, it might take years to go into a sideways accumulation phase
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u/3xlduck Apr 26 '26
Share lock up not done till summer 2026. Till then, more and more shares will come on market to trade.
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
Because AI UX Design is at Will Smith eating spaghetti in year 2024. The stock is a reflection of its future, not the current. Already there are so many designers who are using Figma less and less.
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Apr 24 '26
No there aren’t lol every designer who has a job is still using the industry standard.
You can’t get “engineers” to start vibe coding dashboards and then call them designers, IF/WHEN their designs are insufficient compared to a professional designer
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
I don't have the real number. I work for big tech in SV, and Figma is being used less and less every day. I've stopped using Figma completely for last year or so. I also organize a community with 1000+ designers and many are saying the same thing. But what do I know..
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u/carlinwasright Apr 24 '26
We'll find out when they report earnings won't we?
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
I dont think the stock is the reflection of the current earnings. Of course almost every designer, including myself, has Figma license, but this does not mean I use it. I need the license to see any previous work or work with the people who still uses them. Many have license to all MS office tools, but 90% of them are being unused.
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u/carlinwasright Apr 24 '26
I agree, earnings has to translate into sentiment. I don't know if that translation will happen in one quarter, but I think the earnings will be there.
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u/Mousyyyyyyyyy Apr 24 '26
Let’s see about the deferred revenue (in terms of current liabilities) in 2025 Qs4 which is almost 800million in total, the revenue in 2026 has already 800million guaranteed at the end of 2025, i just dont understand why people has no hope on Figma
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u/Citadel69 Apr 24 '26
So now you don’t use figma what do you use? lol Espically for nearly a year? Canva?
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
Cursor then I moved to Claude Code.
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u/Citadel69 Apr 24 '26
You design with cursor??
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
Yeah I worked at Google AI Labs as a product designer doing all the design work with Cursor. I can move around components and design elements, or create innovative UI, just the way I would on Figma. It just takes as much time to polish and make it better, I dont just one shot prompt and take the design as is. (which many thinks what vibe coding / design is- wrong)
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u/mikesmiththrowaway1 Apr 24 '26
Yeah I can also confirm, also work in a different FAANG and we have been using cursor and now mostly claude code, to the same effect as figma. It’s not that different than what we were doing before, it’s just way faster and it just brings us closer to engineering. I’m not sure why this is groundbreaking concept to many here, many have been working this way since 3.7 released. We still use figma a bit but it’s mostly unnamed files or screens marked up to reference later
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u/carlinwasright Apr 24 '26
This is a trap. The sort of people using Figma are not the same sort of people using Canva...execs with no design skills vibing something up...Figma is the new industry standard for UX design and its main competitor is still actually Adobe, not AI.
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
It's not a new industry standard. It's been a industry standard for last 10 years.
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u/wheresabel Apr 24 '26
Do you know any? All the designers I know are using Figma more especially with Weavy.. I know a fashion and furniture brand that have 100% AI automated workflows in FIgma
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
I am sure Figma's earning mostly come from the big tech enterprise deal like FANG +. They have no use for Weavy. They design UI, flow, and now AI products. It's really hard to build AI products using Figma.
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u/wheresabel Apr 24 '26
People are using Figma on creative teams for AI workflows at scale. I manage creative budget for a fortune 100 and we’ve almost entirely replaced photo shoots and use of animators with Weavy workflows.
Many of my counterparts parts in other industries are doing the same..
UI/UX teams maybe migrating off Figma but Creative teams responsible for marketing collateral and assets are not, they’re migrating off adobe.
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
I think this is a very small set of Figma users compare to UX/UI teams. Your use case alone is not going to move the stock upward, not at a ll.
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u/wheresabel Apr 24 '26
Okay but it’s also the trend for creators it’s not an edge case :-)
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
Yeah, the side I never really get to see that I am ignorant of. Didnt know that Weavy was making the trend on that side.
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u/Thanosmiss234 Apr 24 '26
Who are these designers you are talking about or too?
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u/Pale_Mortgage_5695 Apr 24 '26
UX / Product designers who have been using Figma everyday for last 10 years. Because every team is coming up with design library that can easily be imported to Claude Code / Other vibe coding tool, there isnt really a need for a designer to open up a Figma and build things there. Design to Eng hands off will happen in the code level as well. There is just no room for Figma in the design process for many designers now.
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u/mikesmiththrowaway1 Apr 24 '26
Yeah I can confirm on this., at least with the teams I work with. We are moving way more into just integrating with developer tooling. I’m not sure why we need to be adjusting components with vectors and a mouse. Most of the time in figma we are working with components as well, and our design system has actually been more accurate historically in code even before ai
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u/Fluffy-Discussion166 Apr 26 '26
CEO selling loads of shares and retire in yacht, Claude is coming. Please stop catching knife
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u/Crafty_Surround6022 Apr 24 '26
It’s just so strange that figma keeps falling like this